Monday, October 29, 2018

Dollar Index tested resistance

Dollar Index broke 96.3 resistance, failed to hold and closed below for the week.
On the weekly chart, it broke lhf and consolidating range
Resistance at TLU1, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6



COT for Dollar Index


Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 27 Oct 18

BDI closed at 1519 (26 Oct)
Harpex closed at 516.18 (19 Oct)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Soybeans
  • Orange Juice (1)
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend
  • Cocoa
  • Gold
  • Platinum
  • Natural Gas (1)
  • Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 27 Oct 18

US markets pull back for the 4th week.  US markets daily chart is on DT (Downtrend).  
Expect volatility to continue.  Various countries will have an interest rate decision this week while US will have NFP on 2 Nov, Fri.

Dollar Index tested another resistance level.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • Nasdaq

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
24,841, 25,336, 25,649, 25,784, 26,627, TLU11, 26,976, 29,106
Potential support around 24,170, 23,567, 23,435, TLU6, 23,175, 22,776, 22,121

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,710, 2,786, 2,814, 2,825, 2,874, 2,940, 2,983, 3,219
Potential support around 2,593 2,551, 2,506, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406, 2,392, 2,366

Nasdaq
Daily 
Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 7,282, TLU6, 7,516, 7,706, TLU7, 8,428
Potential support around 7,134, 6,982, 6,857, TLU3, 6,346, TLU4, 6,261

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
 1,494, 1,508, 1,519, 1,543, 1,585, 1,609, 1,624
Potential support around 1,451, 1,420, 1,388 TLU3, 1,341, 1,296

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
29 Oct, Mon
  • 2030 UK Autumn Budget
  • 2030 US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure
30 Oct, Tue
  • 1655 German Unemployment Change (Oct) 
  • 1800 Europe Gross Domestic Product s.a. 
  • 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) 
31 Oct, Wed
  • 0330 Canada BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
  • 0830 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 0900 China Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 
  • 1000 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY) 
  • 1000 Japan BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)   
  • 1200 Japan BoJ Press Conference 
  • 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Oct)
  • 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct) 
  • 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Aug) 
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
01 Nov, Thu
  • 0415 Canada BoC Gov Poloz Speaks 
  • 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 
  • 1000 China PBoC Interest Rate Decision
  • 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 
  • 2000 UK BoE Inflation Report    
  • 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov)  
  • 2030 UK BoE Gov Carney Speaks   
  • 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 
02 Nov, Fri
  • 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
  • 1655 German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 
  • 1730 UK Construction PMI (Oct)
  • 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)
  • 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Oct)  
  • 2030 Canada Employment Change (Oct)   

Monday, October 22, 2018

No update for this week

Due to unforeseen circumstance, this blog will not be updated this week due to personal commitments.

Sunday, October 14, 2018

Dollar Index broke support

After it failed to close above TLU1, it broke and closed below 95.0 level.
Resistance at 95.0, TLU1, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6


COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA


Commodities Update 13 Oct 18

BDI closed at 1579 (12 Oct)
Harpex closed at 532.28 (05 Oct)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Cocoa
  • Soybeans
  • Corn
  • Silver
  • Orange Juice
  • Rough Rice
Neutral
  • Coffee
  • Gold (1)
  • Platinum
Up Trend
  • Sugar
  • Natural Gas (1)
  • Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 13 Oct 18

US markets slumped down.  On the weekly charts, it tested one of the strong support level and closed above it.

Dollar Index broke 95.0 support level and closed below.

Watch out for US FOMC Meeting Minutes on 18 Oct 0200 Hrs and China GDP on 19 Oct.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • Nasdaq
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

COT show dealer seems to be picking up, any entry goes small for now.

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Dow

Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 25,649, 25,784, 26,627, TLU11, 26,976, 29,106
Potential support around 25,336, 24,841, 24,170, 23,567, 23,435, 23,175

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,786, 2,814, 2,825, 2,874, 2,940, 2,983, 3,219
Potential support around 2,710, 2,593 2,551, 2,506, 2,480, 2,450

Nasdaq
Daily 
Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 7,282, TLU6, 7,516, 7,706, TLU7, 8,428
Potential support around 7,134, 6,982, 6,857, TLU3, 6,346, TLU4, 6,261

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
1,585, 1,609, 1,624, 1,683, 1,708, 1,743
Potential support around 1,543, 1,519, 1,508, 1,494, 1,451, 1,420, 1,388

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
15 Oct, Mon
  • 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)   
  • 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
16 Oct, Tue
  • 0545 New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q3) 
  • 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
  • 1630 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Aug) 
  • 1630 UK Claimant Count Change (Sep)   
  • 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Aug) 
17 Oct, Wed
  • HK holiday
  • 1630 UK CPI (YoY) (Sep)
  • 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Sep)
  • 2030 US Building Permits (Sep) 
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
18 Oct, Thu
  • 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 0830 Australia Employment Change (Sep) 
  • 1630 UK Employment Change (Sep)
  • 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
19 Oct, Fri
  • 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q3)
  • 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep)  
  • 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
  • 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)