Dollar Index directionless

The dollar index closed higher with an inside day again on the weekly chart.  Potential explosive movement may happen soon.
Resistance at  99.8, 100.3, 102.3
Support at 98.7, 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 26 Mar 2022

BDI closed lower from 2,605 (17 Mar) to 2,544 (24 Mar)

Harpex remained unchanged at 4,586 (25 Mar) 

CDFI closed higher from 1,645.78 (18 Mar) to 1,666.97 (25 Mar)

CCFI closed lower from 3,301.1 (18 Mar) to 3,274.9 (25 Mar)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gold
• Palladium
• Gasoline
• Heating Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Orange Juice

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 26 Mar 2022

US market closed higher except for Russell closed lower.

BDI and CCFI closed lower, CDFI closed higher, while Harpex remained unchanged.

The dollar index closed higher with another inside day on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• Europe daylight saving starts on 27 Mar
• Manufacturing PMI data by multiple countries
• US NFP Data

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell (1)
• Dow

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097

Potential support around 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

28 Mar, Mon

• 1900 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance (Feb) 

29 Mar, Tue

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Mar)
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Feb)

30 Mar, Wed

• 2000 German Inflation Rate YoY (Mar) 
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

31 Mar, Thu

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1400 UK GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 1555 German Unemployment Change (Mar)
• 1700 Europe Unemployment Rate (Feb)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Jan) 

01 Apr, Fri

• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1600 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Mar)
• 2130 Canada Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

Dollar Index directionless

On the weekly chart, the dollar index broke the 98.7 support level and closed lower with an inside day.
Resistance at  98.7, 99.8, 100.3, 102.3
Support at 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 19 Mar 2022

BDI closed lower from 2,718 (10 Mar) to 2,605 (17 Mar)

Harpex remained unchanged at 4,586 (18 Mar)

CCDI closed lower from 1,717.39 (11 Mar) to 1,645.78 (18 Mar)

CCFI closed lower, from 3,366.01 (11 Mar) to 3,301.1 (18 Mar)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gold
• Palladium
• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Orange Juice

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 19 Mar 2022

US market broke lhf (lower high formation) on the weekly chart and closed higher.  Nasdaq and Russell closed with an outside day on the weekly chart.  Russell is still consolidating.

BDI, CDFI, and CCFI closed lower while Harpex remained unchanged.

On the weekly chart, the dollar index broke the 98.7 support level and closed lower with an inside day.

Watch out for

• China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• Speech by ECB President Lagarde, Fed Chair Powell, RBA Gov Lowe, ECB Guindos, BoE Gov Bailey
• SNB Interest Rate Decision
• PMI data by  multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell (1)
• Dow

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097

Potential support around 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

21 Mar, Mon

• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1530 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks  

22 Mar, Tue

• 0000 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks 
• 0900 Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech
• 1530 Europe ECB Guindos Speech 

23 Mar, Wed

• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Feb)
• 2000 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks  
• 2000 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks  
• 2030 UK Annual Budget Release  
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Feb)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

24 Mar, Thu

• 0800 Germany Extraordinary NATO Summit
• 1630 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q1)
• 1630 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment  
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Mar)  
• 1700 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Mar)    
• 1730 Switzerland SNB Press Conference  
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2145 US Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

25 Mar, Fri

• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar)

Dollar Index broke 98.7 resistance level

The dollar index broke and closed above the 98.7 resistance level.
Resistance at  99.8, 100.3, 102.3,
Support at 98.7, 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Market 12 Mar 2022

US market broke hlf (higher low formation) and closed lower.  US market consolidating.  Russell is consolidating for seven weeks; expect potential significant movement.

BDI, CDFI, and Harpex closed higher except for CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke and closed above the 98.7 resistance level.

Watch out for

• US daylight saving starts on 13 Mar
• US and UK Interest rate decision

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell (1)
• Dow

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207, 14,930, 15,652, 16,374

Potential support around  12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

14 Mar, Mon

• No important data

15 Mar, Tue

• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes  
• 1000 China Retail Sales YoY (Jan-Feb)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb)
• 1000 China Unemployment Rate (Jan-Feb)
• 1500 UK Claimant Count Change (Feb)
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Feb)

16 Mar, Wed

• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Feb)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

17 Mar, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Economic Projections
• 0200 US FOMC Statement  
• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 0545 New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Feb)
• 1730 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks  
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Feb)
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Feb)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)

18 Mar, Fri

• 1100 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement  
• 1430 Japan BoJ Press Conference  
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Feb)

Commodities Update 12 Mar 2022

BDI closed higher from 2,148 (04 Mar) to 2,718 (10 Mar)

Harpex closed higher from 4,497 (04 Mar) to 4,586 (11 Mar)

CCDI closed higher from 1,454.64 (04 Mar) to 1,717.39 (11 Mar)

CCFI closed lower, from 3,388.59 (04 Mar) to 3,366.01 (11 Mar)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Palladium
• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal

Neutral

• Orange Juice

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dollar Index tested 98.7 resistance level

The dollar index rallied, tested the resistance level 98.7 but failed to hold and closed at 98.67.
Resistance at 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 05 Mar 2022

BDI continues to close higher, from 2,076 (25 Feb) to 2,148 (04 Mar)

Harpex closed higher from 4,407 (25 Feb) to 4,497 (04 Mar)

CCDI continues to close higher, from 1,343.39 (25 Feb) to 1,454.64 (04 Mar)

CCFI closed lower from 3,425.58 (25 Feb) to 3,388.59 (04 Mar)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal
• Orange Juice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 05 Mar 2022

US market broke pwh (previous week high) and reversed to close lower.

BDI, CDFI, and Harpex closed higher except for CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index rallied, tested the 98.7 resistance level and closed at 98.67.

Watch out for

• China and US Inflation Rate
• EU Leaders Summit
• ECB Interest Rate Decision

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell (1)
• Dow

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,207, 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

07 Mar, Mon

• No important data

08 Mar, Tue

• 1800 Europe GDP Growth Rate
• 1800 Europe Employment Change
• 2130 US Balance of Trade (Jan)

09 Mar, Wed

• 0615 Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech 
• 0750 Japan GDP
• 0930 China Inflation Rate YoY (Feb)
• 1000 Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech 
• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 2300 US JOLTs Job Openings (Jan)

10 Mar, Thu

• 1800 Europe EU Leaders Summit
• 2045 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement
• 2045 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
• 2130 Europe ECB Press Conference 
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Core CPI

11 Mar, Fri

• 0545 Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech 
• 1500 UK GDP (MoM)
• 1500 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan)
• 1800 Europe EU Leaders Summit
• 2130 Canada Employment Change (Feb)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar)