Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index failed to hold above 93.3 resistance and broke down to close lower.  The dollar index closed with an inside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 92.0, 90.6, TLD1, TLD2, 88.88, 86.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 28 Aug 2021

BDI closed higher from 4,092 (19 Aug) to 4,235 (26 Aug)

Harpex closed higher from 3,554.49 (13 Aug) to 3,560.46 (20 Aug)

CDFI closed higher from 1,839.11 (20 Aug) to 1,857.38 (27 Aug)

CCFI close higher from 3,047.32 (20 Aug) to 3,079.04 (27 Aug)

COT 
Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold
• Palladium

Neutral

• Gasoline

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Orange Juice
• Cotton

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Heating Oil

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 28 Aug 2021

US market closed higher with S&P and Nasdaq hit a historic high. 
Dow closed with an inside day on the weekly chart.
Russell is consolidating between 2,084 and 2,368.

Harpex, BDI, CCFI and CDFI closed higher.

The dollar index failed to hold above 93.3 resistance level.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI data from various countries
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652

Potential support around 114,930, 4,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

30 Aug, Mon

• UK Holiday
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)

31 Aug, Tue

• 0900 China Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1555 German Unemployment Change (Aug)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Jun)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Aug)

01 Sep, Wed

• 0930 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

02 Sep, Thu

• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

03 Sep, Fri

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI
• 1630 UK Composite PMI (Aug)
• 1630 UK Services PMI (Aug)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Aug)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

Dollar Index broke resistance

The dollar index broke and closed above 93.3 resistance level.
Resistance at 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 93.3, 92.0, 90.6, TLD1, TLD2, 88.88, 86.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 21 Aug 2021

BDI closed higher from 3,566 (12 Aug) to 4,092 (19 Aug)

Harpex closed higher from 3,548.53 (06 Aug) to 3,554.49 (13 Aug)

CDFI closed higher from 1,725.3 (13 Aug) to 1,839.11 (20 Aug)

CCFI close higher from 2,978.47 (13 Aug) to 3,047.32 (20 Aug)

COT 
Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold
• Palladium

Neutral

• Gasoline

Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Orange Juice
• Cotton

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Heating Oil

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 21 Aug 2021

US market broke hlf (higher low formation) on the weekly chart.  US market has recovered some of the losses before closing lower.
Nasdaq is consolidating between 14,178 and 14,846.
Russell is consolidating between 2,084 and 2,368.

Harpex, BDI, CCFI and CDFI closed higher.

The dollar index closed above 93.3 resistance level.

Watch out for

• PMI and GDP Data from various countries
• Fed's Chair Powell speech
• Jackson Hole Symposium

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652

Potential support around 114,930, 4,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

23 Aug, Mon

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)
• 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1600 Europe Markit PMI Composite 
• 1630 UK Services PMI (Aug) 
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Jul)

24 Aug, Tue

• 0645 New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ)
• 1400 German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Jul)

25 Aug, Wed

• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Aug)
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

26 Aug, Thu

• 1930 Europe ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting  
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

27 Aug, Fri

• 0800 US Jackson Hole Symposium
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
• 2200 US Fed's Chair Powell speech

28 Aug, Sat

• 0800 US Jackson Hole Symposium

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke lhf (lower high formation), tested pmh (previous month high), reversed and closed lower on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 92.0, 90.6, TLD1, TLD2, 88.88, 86.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 14 Aug 2021

BDI closed higher from 3,371 (06 Aug) to 3,566 (12 Aug)

Harpex closed higher from 3,301.03 (30 Jul) to 3,548.53 (06 Aug)

CDFI closed higher from 1,676.29 (06 Aug) to 1,725.3 (13 Aug)

CCFI close lower from 3,006.82 (06 Aug) to 2,978.47 (13 Aug)

COT 
Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa
• Gold
• Palladium

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Orange Juice
• Cotton

Neutral

• Heating Oil

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 14 Aug 2021

US market closed mixed. 
Dow and S&P closed with a historic high. In contrast, Nasdaq and Russell closed lower with an inside day on the weekly chart.
Russell is consolidating between 2,084 and 2,368.

Harpex, BDI, and CDFI closed higher.  CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index closed lower.

Watch out for

• RBA Meeting Minutes
• Various countries reporting Retail Sales and CPI data
• FOMC Minutes
• RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and statement

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652

Potential support around 114,930, 4,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

16 Aug, Mon

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)
• 1000 China Retail Sales (YoY)

17 Aug, Tue

• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (Jul)
• 1400 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jun)
• 1700 Europe Gross Domestic Product s.a.
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)

18 Aug, Wed

• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement  
• 1100 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference 
• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Jul)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jul)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Jul)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

19 Aug, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 0930 Australia Unemployment Change s.a.
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)

20 Aug, Fri

• 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

Dollar Index closed with an inside day

The dollar index closed higher with an inside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 92.0, 90.6, TLD1, TLD2, 88.88, 86.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 07 Aug 2021

BDI closed higher from 3,292 (30 Jul) to 3,371 (06 Aug)

Harpex closed higher from 3,142.98 (23 Jul) to 3,301.03 (30 Jul)

CDFI closed higher from 1,660.46 (30 Jul) to 1,676.29 (06 Aug)

CCFI close higher from 2,930.03 (30 Jul) to 3,006.82 (06 Aug)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa
• Gold
• Palladium

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Heating Oil
• Orange Juice
• Cotton

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 07 Aug 2021

US market closed higher.  Dow and S&P closed with a historic high.

Harpex, BDI, CDFI, and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index closed higher with an inside day.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• Russell

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652

Potential support around 114,930, 4,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

09 Aug, Mon

• Japan and Singapore Holiday
• 0930 China Consumer Price Index (YoY)
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)

10 Aug, Tue

• 0750 Japan Current Account n.s.a.
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug)

11 Aug, Wed

• 1400 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

12 Aug, Thu

• 1400 UK GDP Q2
• 1400 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Jul)

13 Aug, Fri

• 0930 Australia Employment Change (Jul)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Dollar Index broke hlf

The dollar index broke hlf (Higher low formation) and closed lower on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 92.0, 90.6, TLD1, TLD2, 88.88, 86.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 31 Jul 2021

BDI closed higher from 3,199 (23 Jul) to 3,292 (30 Jul)

Harpex closed higher from 3,023.70 (16 Jul) to 3,142.98 (23 Jul)

CDFI closed higher from 1,607.45 (23 Jul) to 1,660.46 (30 Jul)

CCFI close higher from 2,854.02 (23 Jul) to 2,930.03 (30 Jul)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa
• Gold
• Palladium

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Heating Oil
• Orange Juice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 31 Jul 2021

US market closed lower with a -roc (close price < open price) except  Russell closed higher but still consolidating.

Harpex, BDI, CDFI, and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index closed lower.

Watch out for

• Various countries Manufacturing PMI 
• Australia and UK Interest Rate Decision 
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• Russell

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652

Potential support around 114,930, 4,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

02 Aug, Mon

• Canada Holiday
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

03 Aug, Tue

• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug)
• 1230 Australia RBA Rate Statement

04 Aug, Wed

• 0645 New Zealand Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2)
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 1630 UK Composite PMI (Jul)
• 1630 UK Services PMI (Jul)
• 1700 Europe Retail Sales
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul)
• 2030 Canada Building Permits (MoM)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

05 Aug, Thu

• 0930 Australia Trade Balance (MoM)
• 1630 UK Construction PMI (Jul)
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Aug)
• 1900 UK Bank of England Monetary Policy Report
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Goods and Services Trade

06 Aug, Fri

• 0700 Australia RBA's Governor Lowe speech
• 0930 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Jul)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Jul)
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Jul)