US Market 19 Feb 2022

US market broke hlf (higher low formation) on the weekly chart and closed lower, except Russell closed lower with an inside day on the weekly chart.

BDI, CDFI and CCFI closed lower except for Harpex closed higher.

The dollar index closed lower.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI from multiple countries
• China PBoC Loan Prime Rate, New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• Speech by Europe ECB Guindos and UK BoE Gov Bailey

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,207, 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

21 Feb, Mon

• US and Canada holiday
• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 1700 Europe Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 
• 1730 UK Services PMI
• 2130 Canada ADP Employment Change (Jan)

22 Feb, Tue

• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Feb)
• 2245 US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Feb)

23 Feb, Wed

• Japan Holiday
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement  
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference  
• 1500 German GfK Consumer Confidence (Mar)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 1930 Europe ECB Guindos Speech 

24 Feb, Thu

• 2115 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2300 US New Home Sales (Jan)

25 Feb, Fri

• 0000 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 0545 New Zealand Retail Sales YoY (Q4)
• 0801 UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (Feb)
• 1500 German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan)
• 2300 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb)