US Market 31 Jan 2021

US market closed lower.  On the weekly charts, Dow broke hlf (higher low formation) while S&P, Nasdaq and Russell closed lower with a -roc (close price < open price) inside day.

BDI and CDFI closed lower while Harpex and CCFI closed higher.

Dollar Index consolidating.

Watch out for Manufacturing PMI, Interest rate decision and US NFP.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• DOW

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 31,236, 33,365

Potential support around  29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 28,195, 27,345, 26,635

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161

Potential support around 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388, 3,219, 3,155, 3,07

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207

Potential support around 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318, 10,856, 10,595

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around  2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708, 1,683, 1,649

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

01 Feb, Mon

• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1655 German Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 2300 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

02 Feb, Tue

• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jan)
• 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement  
• 1800 Europe Gross Domestic Product s.a.

03 Feb, Wed

• 0545 New Zealand Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4)
• 0930 Australia RBA's Governor Lowe speech
• 1600 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement??
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 2115 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan)
• 2300 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

04 Feb, Thu

• 0830 Australia Trade Balance
• 1730 UK Construction PMI (Jan)
• 1800 Europe Retail Sales
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
• 2030 UK BoE's Governor Bailey speech
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

05 Feb, Fri

• 0630 Australia RBA's Governor Lowe speech
• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 0830 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement
• 2130 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks  
• 2130 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
• 2130 US Unemployment Rate (Jan)
• 1230 US Goods Trade Balance
• 2130 Canada Employment Change (Jan)
• 2300 Canada Ivey PMI (Jan)