US Markets 24 May 25

The US market closed lower. The Dow, S&P and the Russell broke the previous week's low.
The US market's daily trend (50 SMA) has improved. While the Dow turned neutral, the S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell became uptrends.

While BDI reversed to close lower, CDFI and CCFI reversed to close higher, and Harpex closed higher.

The dollar index broke the two support levels (100.3 and 99.8) and slumped, returning the gain for the past month.

Watch out for

• Speech by US Fed Chair Powell
• FOMC Meeting Minutes
• US and Canada GDP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 41,884, 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,809, 6,045, 6,280

Potential support around 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 21,431, 22,154, 22,876

Potential support around 20,709, 19,986, 19,264, 18,542

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

26 May, Mon

• The UK and the US are on holiday
• 0240 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks

27 May, Tue

• 2030 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr)  
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr)  
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (May)

28 May, Wed

• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

29 May, Thu

• Switzerland on holiday
• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes 
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)  

30 May, Fri

• 0000 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 0730 Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (May)
• 0930 Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Apr)
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
• 2000 Germany CPI (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Apr)
• 2030 Canada GDP (YoY) (Q1) 
• 2145 US Chicago PMI (May)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May)

Commodities Update 24 May 25

BDI reversed to close lower from 1,388 (16 May) to 1,340 (23 May) 

Harpex closed higher from 2,055 (16 May) to 2,102 (23 May) 

CDFI continued to close higher from 935.68 (16 May) to 952.83 (23 May) 

CCFI reversed to close higher from 1,104.88 (16 May) to 1,107.4 (23 May) 

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat (1)
• Soybean Meal
• Sugar
• Rough Rice (1)
• Crude (1)
• Lumber

Neutral

• Orange Juice
• Cocoa

Up Trend

• Platinum
• Cotton
  

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index slumped

The dollar index broke the two support levels (100.3 and 99.8) and slumped, returning the gain for the past month.
Resistance at 99.8, 100.3, 102.3, TLU1, 103.6
Support at 98.7, 97.3, 96.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 17 May 25

The US market closed higher. 

While BDI and CDFI reversed to close higher, CCFI closed lower, and Harpex remained the same.

The dollar index broke the 100.3 resistance level and closed higher, despite trimming some of the gain.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and CPI data from multiple countries
• Australia and China Interest Rate Decision

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• Nasdaq

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,045, 6,280

Potential support around 5,809, 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 21,431, 22,154, 22,876

Potential support around 20,709, 19,986, 19,264, 18,542

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

19 May, Mon

• Canada on holiday
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr)
• 1000 China Chinese Unemployment Rate (Apr)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Apr)

20 May, Tue

• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (May)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)
• 2030 Canada CPI (MoM) (Apr)

21 May, Wed

• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Apr)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

22 May, Thu

• 0700 Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)  
• 0700 Australia S&P Global Services PMI (May) 
• 1530 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May) 
• 1530 Germany HCOB Services PMI (May) 
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May) 
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (May) 
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)  
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (May)  
• 1930 Europe ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting  
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)  
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (May)  
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Apr)

23 May, Fri

• 0730 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)
• 1400 UK Retail Core Sales (YoY) (Apr)
• 1400 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Apr)

Commodities Update 17 May 25

BDI reversed to close higher from 1,299 (09 May) to 1,388 (16 May)

Harpex remained the same at 2,055 (16 May)

CDFI reversed to close higher from 933.75 (09 May) to 935.68 (16 May)

CCFI closed lower from 1,106.38 (09 May) to 1,104.88 (16 May)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat (1)
• Soybean Meal
• Sugar
• Rough Rice (1)
• Cocoa
• Crude
• Lumber
• Orange Juice

Neutral

• Platinum

Up Trend

• Cotton

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index broke the 100.3 resistance level and closed higher, despite trimming some gains.
Resistance at 102.3, TLU1, 103.6
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7, 97.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA