Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index broke lower-high formation on the weekly chart and closed higher.
Resistance at TLU2, 106.7, TLU1, 109.7
Support at 103.6, TLD1,102.3, 100.3, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 23 Sep 2023

BDI closed higher from 1,381 (15 Sep) to 1,593 (22 Sep)

Harpex closed lower from 1,006 (15 Sep) to 1,003 (22 Sep)

CDFI closed higher from 1,047.44 (15 Sep) to 1,131.15 (22 Sep)

CCFI closed lower from 875.21 (15 Sep) to 871.8 (22 Sep)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat
• Corn (1)
• Soybeans

Neutral

• Coffee
• Palladium (1)
• Copper
• Gold
• Silver
• Gasoline

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• US Cocoa

Neutral

• Natural Gas

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

US Markets 23 Sep 2023

The US market closed lower.

Harpex and CCFI continued to close lower, while CDFI and BDI continued to close higher. 

The dollar index broke lower-high formation on the weekly chart and closed higher.

Watch out for

• US and UK reporting GDP
• China reporting Caixin Manufacturing and Services PMI
• Speech by US Fed Chair Powell

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• S&P
• Nasdaq

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754
Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 14,207, 13,485, 12,762

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,779, 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

25 Sep, Mon

• No important data

26 Sep, Tue

• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Aug)

27 Sep, Wed

• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

28 Sep, Thu

• 2000 German CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug)

29 Sep, Fri

• China on Holiday
• 0400 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
• 1400 UK GDP (YoY) (Q2)
• 1700 Europe CPI (Sep) 
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep)

30 Sep, Sat

• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Sep)

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index closed lower with +roc (closing price > opening price) on the weekly chart.
Resistance at TLU2, 106.7, TLU1, 109.7
Support at 103.6, TLD1,102.3, 100.3, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 16 Sep 2023

BDI continued to close higher, from 1,186 (08 Sep) to 1,381 (15 Sep)

Harpex closed lower from 1,034 (08 Sep) to 1,006 (15 Sep)

CDFI closed higher from 1,002.96 (08 Sep) to 1,047.44 (15 Sep)

CCFI closed lower from 890.34 (08 Sep) to 875.21 (15 Sep)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat
• Corn (1)
• Soybeans
• Coffee
• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• Copper
• Gold

Up Trend

• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• US Cocoa

Neutral

• Natural Gas

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

US Markets 16 Sep 2023

The US market closed lower, except the Dow closed higher. The S&P and Nasdaq closed with an inside day on the weekly chart for two consecutive weeks. 

While Harpex and CCFI continued to close lower, CDFI and BDI closed higher. 

The dollar index closed lower with +roc (closing price > opening price) on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• Interest Rate Decision by US, Switzerland, UK and Japan.
• Multiple countries are reporting manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and CPI data.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754
Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652, 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

18 Sep, Mon

• Japan on holiday
• No important data

19 Sep, Tue

• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Aug)
• 2030 Canada Inflation Rate YoY (Aug)

20 Sep, Wed

• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

21 Sep, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Statement 
• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 0645 New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 1530 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q3)
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Aug)

22 Sep, Fri

• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (Aug)
• 1030 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1400 UK Retail Sales MoM (Aug)
• 1530 German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 
• 1530 German HCOB Services PMI (Sep) 
• 1530 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 
• 1530 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Sep)
• 1630 UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
• 1630 UK S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI
• 2030 Canada Retail Sales YoY (Jul)
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Sep) 
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep)