Dollar Index continues to lower

The dollar index broke trend support (TLU2) and closed lower.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.66, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 28 May 2022

BDI closed lower from 3,344 (20 May) to 2,681 (27 May)

Harpex closed higher from 4,395 (20 May) to 4,401 (27 May)

CDFI closed lower from 1,875.36 (20 May) to 1,757.49 (27 May)

CCFI closed higher from 3,135.78 (20 May) to 3,190.95 (27 May)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)
• Gold (1)
• Silver
• Lumber
• Feeder Cattle (1)
• Cocoa

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline  (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Orange Juice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Market 28 May 2022

US market broke lhf (lower high formation) on the weekly chart and closed higher.

BDI and CDFI closed lower while CCFI and Harpex closed higher.

The dollar index broke trend support and closed lower.

Watch out for

• GDP and Manufacturing PMI data from multiple countries
• Speech by Europe ECB President Lagarde
• Canada Interest Rate Decision
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow (1)
• Russell (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 26,976

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925,  3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,219

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,762, 13,485, 14,207, 14,930, 15,652

Potential support around 12,410, 12,040,  11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 1,779, 1,743, 1,708, 1,649, 1,624, 1,609

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

30 May, Mon

• US Holiday

31 May, Tue

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1555 German Unemployment Change (May)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (May)
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 CB Consumer Confidence (May)

01 Jun, Wed

• 0930 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1600 Europe Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1900 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Apr)
• 2200 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision

02 Jun, Thu

• UK Holiday
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories

03 Jun, Fri

• UK, Hong Kong and China holiday
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (May)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (May)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)

Dollar Index retreated and tested trend support

The dollar index broke hlf (high low formation) on the weekly chart, tested TLU2 trend support, and trimmed some losses before closing lower.
Resistance at 103.66, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 102.3, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 21 May 2022

BDI closed higher from 3,104 (13 May) to 3,344 (20 May)

Harpex remained the same at 4,395 (20 May)

CDFI closed higher from 1,817.83 (13 May) to 1,875.36 (20 May)

CCFI closed higher from 3,088.03 (13 May)  to 3,135.78 (20 May)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)
• Gold (1)
• Silver
• Lumber

Neutral

• Feeder Cattle (1)

Up Trend

• Gasoline 

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Orange Juice
• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 21 May 2022

US market closed lower with a -roc (closing price < opening price). Dow and Nasdaq broke pwl (previous week low) and recovered some of the losses. S&P closed with an outside day while Russell broke lhf (lower high formation), failed to hold and closed lower on the weekly chart.

BDI, CCFI and CDFI closed higher, while Harpex remained unchanged.

The dollar index retreated and tested trend support.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI and Retail Sales from multiple countries
• RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• Speech by BoE Gov Bailey and Fed Chair Powell

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow
• Russell (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 26,976

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,219

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,410, 12,762, 13,485, 14,207, 14,930, 15,652

Potential support around 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,779, 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 1,743, 1,708, 1,649, 1,624, 1,609

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

23 May, Mon

• Canada Holiday
• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (May)

24 May, Tue

• 0015 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 0645 New Zealand Retail Sales QoQ (Q1)
• 0700 Australia Markit Manufacturing PMI
• 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI 
• 2145 US Markit Manufacturing PMI (May)  
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Apr)

25 May, Wed

• 0020 US Fed Chair Powell Speech 
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement  
• 1400 German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

26 May, Thu

• Switzerland Holiday
• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (Apr)

27 May, Fri

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance (Apr) 
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May)