Dollar Index continued to close higher

The dollar index continued to close higher.
Resistance at 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 12 Jul 25

The US market closed lower. 

While BDI, Harpex and CDFI reversed to close higher, CCFI continued to close lower.

The dollar index broke the lower-high formation on the weekly chart and 97.3 resistance to close higher.

Watch out for

• CPI data from multiple countries 
• China data includes GDP, Import, Export and Industrial Production 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 46,144

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,280, 6,516

Potential support around 6,045, 5,809, 5,574, 5,338

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 22,876, 23,598

Potential support around 22,154, 21,431, 20,709, 19,986

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

14 Jul, Mon

• 1100 China Exports (YoY) (Jun)
• 1100 China Imports (YoY) (Jun)

15 Jul, Tue

• 1000 China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jun)
• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q2)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)
• 1000 China Unemployment Rate (Jun)
• 1700 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul)
• 1700 Europe Industrial Production (MoM) (May)
• 1700 Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jul)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 Canada CPI (MoM) (Jun)

16 Jul, Wed

• 0045 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks  
• 0400 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 US Core PPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2115 US Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

17 Jul, Thu

• 0930 Australia Employment Change (Jun)
• 0930 Australia Full Employment Change (Jun)
• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (May)
• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (Jun)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

18 Jul, Fri

• 0730 Japan CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Jun)
• 2030 US Housing Starts (Jun)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul) 

Commodities Update 12 Jul 25

BDI reversed to close higher from 1,436 (04 Jul) to 1,663 (11 Jul)

Harpex closed higher from 2,161 (04 Jul) to 2,164 (11 Jul)

CDFI reversed to close higher from 939.16 (04 Jul) to 981.78 (11 Jul)

CCFI continued to close lower from 1,342.99 (04 Jul) to 1,313.7 (11 Jul)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal
• Sugar
• Cocoa
• Coffee
• Orange Juice
• Cotton

Neutral

• Rough Rice

Up Trend

• Oats
• Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle
• Palladium
• Heating Oil

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index closed rebounded

The dollar index broke the lower-high formation on the weekly chart and 97.3 resistance to close higher.
Resistance at 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke the 96.3 support and recovered some losses before closing lower than the previous week.
Resistance at 97.3, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 05 Jul 25

The US market closed higher. The S&P and Nasdaq closed at historic highs.

BDI closed lower from 1,521 (27 Jun) to 1,436 (04 Jul)

Harpex remained the same at 2,161 (04 Jul)

CDFI closed lower from 945.57 (27 Jun) to 939.16 (04 Jul)

CCFI reversed to close lower from 1,369.34 (27 Jun) to 1,342.99 (04 Jul)

The dollar index broke the 96.3 support and recovered some losses before closing lower than the previous week.

Watch out for

• Australia and New Zealand Interest Rate Decision
• China CPI
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 46,144

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,280

Potential support around 6,045, 5,809, 5,574, 5,338

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 22,876, 23,598

Potential support around 22,154, 21,431, 20,709, 19,986

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

07 Jul, Mon

• No important data

08 Jul, Tue

• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Jun)

09 Jul, Wed

• 0930 China CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

10 Jul, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes  
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

11 Jul, Fri

• 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 1400 UK GDP (MoM) (May)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Jun)
• 2030 Canada Unemployment Rate (Jun)