Dollar Index broke down

The dollar index broke consolidation support and closed lower.
Resistance at 102.3, TLU1, 103.6, TLU2, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7, 97.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 14 Jan 2023

BDI closed lower from 1,208 (06 Jan) to 946 (13 Jan)

Harpex closed higher from 1,130 (06 Jan) to 1,145 (13 Jan)

CDFI closed lower from 954.73 (06 Jan) to 922.36 (13 Jan)

CCFI closed lower from 1,255.89 (06 Jan) to 1,201.55 (13 Jan)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium
• Wheat (1)
• Coffee (1)
• Lumber (1)
• Gasoline

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Cotto
• Soybeans
• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Meal

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 14 Jan 2023

The US market closed higher. Russell closed around the strong resistance range.

BDI, CCFI and CDFI closed lower, while Harpex closed higher.

The dollar index broke consolidation support.

Watch out for

• CPI data by multiple countries
• Interest rate decision by Japan

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

16 Jan, Mon

• US Holiday

17 Jan, Tue

• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)
• 1500 UK Claimant Count Change (Dec)
• 1500 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov)
• 1500 German CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan)
• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)

18 Jan, Wed

• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1100 Japan BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)  
• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Dec)

19 Jan, Thu

• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Dec)
• 1830 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 2030 Europe ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting 
• 2130 US Building Permits (Dec)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)

20 Jan, Fri

• 0000 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)
• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 1800 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Dec)

Dollar Index consolidating

The dollar index continues to consolidate.
Resistance at TLU2, 106.7, 109.7, TLU3, TLD1, 112.6
Support at 103.6, 102.3, 100.3, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 07 Jan 2023

BDI closed at 1,208 (06 Jan) 

Harpex closed at 1,130 (06 Jan)

CDFI closed at 954.73 (06 Jan) 

CCFI closed at 1,255.89 (06 Jan) 

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium
• Wheat (1)
• Coffee
• Lumber (1)
• Gasoline

Neutral

• Cotton

Up Trend

• Soybeans
• Gold
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Meal

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 07 Jan 2023

The US market broke lhf (lower high formation) on the weekly chart and closed higher.

The dollar index continues to consolidate.

Watch out for

• Speech by Fed Chair Powell
• China and US CPI

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 11,318, 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

09 Jan, Mon

• Japan Holiday
• 1800 Europe Unemployment Rate (Nov)

10 Jan, Tue

• 2200 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks  

11 Jan, Wed

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

12 Jan, Thu

• 0930 China Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)
• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

13 Jan, Fri

• 1100 China Balance of Trade (Dec)
• 1500 UK GDP
• 1500 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov)
• 1700 German Full-Year GDP Growth (2022)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan)