Dollar Index failed to hold above resistance

The dollar index failed to hold above TLD1, 92.0 resistance and closed lower.
Resistance at 92.0, TLD1, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 90.6, 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 13 Mar 2021

BDI rallied higher from 1,779 (05 Mar) to 1,970 (12 Mar)

Harpex closed higher from 1,278.36 (26 Feb) to 1,323.39 (05 Mar)

CDFI closed lower from 1,139.84 (05 Mar) to 1,223.9 (12 Mar)

CCFI continues to close lower, from 1,970.58 (05 Mar) to 1,912.13 (12 Mar)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• Palladium

Up Trend

• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Coffee

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 13 Mar 2021

On the weekly chart, the US market broke lhf (lower high formation) and closed higher except for Nasdaq closed higher with an inside day.
Dow, S&P and Russell closed with a historic high.

BDI and Harpex closed higher.
CDFI and CCFI closed lower.

The Dollar Index closed lower.

Watch out for 

• Starting from 15 Mar 2021 (Mon), the US stock trading hours will start from 2130 Hrs  (SGT).
• FOMC Statement on 18 Mar (Thu) 0200 Hrs (SGT)

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,430

Potential support around 2,300, 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

15 Mar, Mon

• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb)
• 1000 China Retail Sales (YoY)

16 Mar, Tue

• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)

17 Mar, Wed

• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Feb)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Feb)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Feb)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

18 Mar, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Statement  
• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 0545 New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Feb)
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
• 2000 UK Bank of England Minutes
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

19 Mar, Fri

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)
• 1030 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1400 Japan BoJ Press Conference  
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)

Dollar Index broke out

On the weekly chart, the dollar index broke lhf (lower high formation), broke out from consolidation resistance and closed higher.
Resistance at 92.0, TLD1, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 90.6, 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 06 Mar 2021

BDI closed higher from 1,700 (25 Feb) to 1,779 (05 Mar)

Harpex closed higher from 1,262.26 (19 Feb) to 1,278.36 (26 Feb)

CDFI close higher from 1,046.46 (26 Feb) to 1,139.84 (05 Mar)

CCFI closed lower from 2,059.52 (26 Feb) to 1,970.58 (05 Mar)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Coffee
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 06 Mar 2021

On the weekly chart, the US market broke pwl (previous week low), some of the losses were trimmed before closing mixed.  Dow and S&P closed higher while Nasdaq and Russell closed lower.

BDI, CDFI, and Harpex closed higher.
CCFI closed lower.

The Dollar Index broke out from consolidating and closed higher.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 28,195

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388, 3,219, 3,155

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 12,762, 13,485, 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 12,410, 12,040, 11,318, 10,856

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

08 Mar, Mon

• 0750 Japan Current Account n.s.a.
• 1800 UK BoE's Governor Bailey speech

09 Mar, Tue

• 0750 Japan GDP
• 1800 Europe GDP

10 Mar, Wed

• 0930 China Consumer Price Index (YoY)
• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Feb)
• 2300 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

11 Mar, Thu

• 2045 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Mar)
• 2045 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 Europe ECB Press Conference  
• 2300 US JOLTs Job Openings (Jan)

12 Mar, Fri

• 1500 UK GDP (QoQ)
• 1500 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Feb)
• 2130 Canada Employment Change (Feb)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index