Commodities Update 18 Jan 2020

BDI closed lower from 774.0 (10 Jan) to 754.00 (17 Jan)
Harpex no change at 712.69 (10 Jan)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Natural Gas
• Orange Juice

Neutral

• Heating Oil

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Oil
• Coffee
• Rough Rice
• Platinum

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 18 Jan 2020

US markets closed higher and created the new historic high except for Russell closed higher but did not create a historic high.

BDI closed lower.

Dollar Index closed above resistance.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 31,236, 33,365

Potential support around 29,106, 28,761,28,195, 27,350, 26,976, 26,627, 26,245, 25,784, 25,645

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,454, 3,690

Potential support around 3,249, 3,219, 3,155, 3,072, 3,022, 2,983, 2,940, 2,874, 2,854, 2,825, 2,814

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 9,150, 9,873

Potential support around 8,808, 8,428, 8,196, 8,002, 7,859, 7,706, 7,516, 7,282, 7,134

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,708, 1,743, 1,779, 1910

Potential support around 1,683, 1,649, 1,624, 1,609, 1,585, 1,543, 1,519, 1,508, 1,451, 1,420

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

20 Jan, Mon

• US holiday
• 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate 

21 Jan, Tue

• 0230 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks  
• 1100 Japan BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)  
• 1730 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov)
• 1730 UK Claimant Count Change (Dec)
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan)

22 Jan, Wed

• 1730 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Dec) 
• 2300 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report 
• 2300 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision  

23 Jan, Thu

• 0015 Canada BOC Press Conference  
• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Dec)
• 2045 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Jan)
• 2045 Europe ECB Marginal Lending Facility 
• 2045 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement  
• 2045 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision 
• 2130 Europe ECB Press Conference  

24 Jan, Fri

• China and South Korea holiday
• 0000 US Crude Oil Inventories 
• 0545 New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q4)
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Jan)  
• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jan)
• 1730 UK Composite PMI  
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI
• 1730 UK Services PMI    
• 1730 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks  
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 

Dollar Index rebounded

On the weekly chart, Dollar Index tested 96.3 support,  rebounded, broke lhf, tested 97.3 resistance and pull back to close higher.
Resistance at 97.3, TLD1, TLU1, 98.7, 99.8, TLU2, 100.3
Support at TLU4, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 11 Jan 2020

BDI closed at 774.0 (10 Jan)
Harpex closed at 712.69 (03 Jan)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Natural Gas

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Crude
• Heating Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Oil
• Coffee
• Rough Rice
• Platinum

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 11 Jan 2020

On the weekly chart, US markets broke pwh and closed higher with a +roc except for Russell broke pwl closed lower with a +roc.

Dollar Index closed higher.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 29,106, 31,236, 33,365

Potential support around 28,195, 27,350, 26,976, 26,627, 26,245, 25,784, 25,645

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,454, 3,690

Potential support around 3,219, 3,072, 3,022, 2,983, 2,940, 2,874, 2,854, 2,825, 2,814

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 9,150, 9,873

Potential support around 8,428, 8,196, 8,002, 7,859, 7,706, 7,516, 7,282, 7,134

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,683, 1,708, 1,743, 1,779, 1910

Potential support around 1,649, 1,624, 1,609, 1,585, 1,543, 1,519, 1,508, 1,451, 1,420

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

13 Jan, Mon

• Japan holiday
• 1730 UK GDP
• 1730 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov)
• 1730 UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change 

14 Jan, Tue

• 0750 Japan Current Account n.s.a.
• 2130 US CPI (MoM) (Dec)

15 Jan, Wed

• 0830 Japan BoJ's Governor Kuroda speech
• 1730 UK CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories 

16 Jan, Thu

• 1500 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
• 2030 Europe ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting  
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)
• 2130 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)

17 Jan, Fri

• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)
• 1730 UK Retail Sales (MoM) 
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 2130 US Building Permits (Dec)
• 2300 US JOLTs Job Openings (Nov) 
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index