Sunday, April 27, 2025

US Markets 26 Apr 25

The US market closed higher while consolidating. The S&P, Nasdaq and Russell closed with an outside day on the weekly chart. 

While CDFI and CCFI continued to close higher, BDI reversed to close higher, and Harpex closed lower.

The dollar index broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher.

Watch out for

  • Short trading week for China
  • GDP and PMI data from multiple countries
  • Japan Interest Rate Decision
  • US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.


Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 41,884, 44,014, 46,144
Potential support around 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 5,574, 5,809, 6,045
Potential support around 5,338, 5,103, 4,867, 4,632

Nasdaq
Daily D
T, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 19,986, 20,709, 21,431
Potential support around 19,264, 18,542, 17,819, 17,097

Russell
Daily 
DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300
Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

28 Apr, Mon

  • No important data

29 Apr, Tue

  • Japan on holiday
  • 2030 US Goods Trade Balance (Mar) 
  • 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Apr)
  • 2200 US JOLTS Job Openings (Mar)

30 Apr, Wed

  • 0930 Australia CPI (YoY) (Q1)
  • 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
  • 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
  • 1600 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q1)  
  • 1700 Europe GDP (QoQ) (Q1)  
  • 2000 Germany CPI (MoM) (Apr) 
  • 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr)
  • 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)  
  • 2145 US Chicago PMI (Apr)
  • 2200 US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
  • 2200 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
  • 2200 US Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar)
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

01 May, Thu

  • China, Hong Kong, Germany, and Switzerland are on holiday
  • 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
  • 1400 UK Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Apr)
  • 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
  • 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 2130 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
  • 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
  • 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

02 May, Fri

  • China is on holiday
  • 0930 Australia PPI (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 
  • 1555 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
  • 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
  • 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Apr)  
  • 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)
  • 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Apr)

Commodities Update 25 Apr 25

BDI reversed to close higher from 1,261 (17 Apr) to 1,373 (25 Apr)

Harpex reversed to close lower from 2,110 (18 Apr) to 2,100 (25 Apr)

CDFI closed higher from 927.22 (18 Apr) to 959.83 (25 Apr)

CCFI closed higher from 1,110.94 (18 Apr) to 1,122.4 (25 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Wheat
  • Soybean Meal
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Rough Rice
  • Cocoa
  • Crude (1)
  • Gasoline (1)
  • Platinum
  • Orange Juice
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend
  • Copper

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index rebounded

The dollar index broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher.
Resistance at 98.7, 99.8, 100.3, 102.3
Support at 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index


Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Sunday, April 20, 2025

US Markets 19 Apr 25

The US market closed lower, except for the Russell, which closed higher. While the Dow broke the previous week's high and reversed, the S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell closed with an inside day on the weekly chart.

While Harpex and CCFI closed higher, BDI and CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index closed lower with an inside day on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

  • Short trading week
  • Manufacturing and Services PMI by the US and Europe

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.


Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
39,754, 41,884, 44,014, 46,144
Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 5,338, 5,574, 5,809, 6,045
Potential support around 5,103, 4,867, 4,632

Nasdaq
Daily D
T, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 18,542, 19,264, 19,986, 20,709
Potential support around 17,819, 17,097, 16,374

Russell
Daily 
DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300
Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

21 Apr, Mon

  • New Zealand, Hong Kong, and most of Europe are on holiday
  • 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate

22 Apr, Tue

  • 1300 Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY)

23 Apr, Wed

  • 1530 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
  • 1530 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Apr)
  • 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
  • 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Apr)
  • 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 
  • 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Apr) 
  • 2030 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
  • 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 
  • 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Apr) 
  • 2200 US New Home Sales (Mar)
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

24 Apr, Thu

  • 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar)  
  • 2030 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar)  
  • 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Mar)

25 Apr, Fri

  • New Zealand and Australia are on holiday
  • 0730 Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)
  • 1400 UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
  • 1400 UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
  • 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
  • 2030 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
  • 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)

Commodities Update 19 Apr 25

BDI closed lower from 1,274 (11 Apr) to 1,261 (17 Apr)

Harpex closed higher from 2,106 (11 Apr) to 2,110 (18 Apr)

CDFI continued to close lower from 947.8 (11 Apr) to 927.22 (18 Apr)

CCFI continued to close higher from 1,107.28 (11 Apr) to 1,110.94 (18 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Wheat
  • Soybean Meal
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Rough Rice (1)
  • Cocoa
  • Crude (1)
  • Gasoline (1)
  • Platinum
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend
  • Copper

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index directionless

The dollar index closed lower with an inside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 99.8, 100.3, 102.3, TLU1, 103.6
Support at 98.7, 97.3, 96.3, 95.0

COT for Dollar Index


Weekly chart with 50 SMA