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Sunday, February 26, 2017

Dollar Index failed to overcome resistance

Dollar Index broke lhf tested few resistance (101.5, TLD5, TLU6), failed to overcome them and closed below them. Inside day is formed on the weekly chart.
Resistance at TLD5, 101.5, TLU6, Trend Channel (Blue)
Support at 100.3, Trend Channel (Blue), 99.8, 98.3, TLU7, TLU9, 97.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 25 Feb 17

BDI recovered from 741 (17 Feb) to 875 (24 Feb)
Harpex move higher from 325.335 (11 Feb) to 330.40 (18 Feb). The worst may be over for container shipping.

Summary
Most commodities continue to close lower except Energy edge higher.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

Cocoa (1)
Rough Rice

Neutral

None

Up Trend

None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

Soybean Meal
Wheat
Crude
Cotton
Silver

Neutral

None

Down Trend

None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 25 Feb 17

Markets closed mixed. US markets closed higher except for Russell. Dollar Index tested resistance and failed to overcome. BDI and Harpex continue going higher. The worst may be over for container shipping. Most commodities closed lower.
US GDP data on Tue, President Trump will speak on Tue night (US Time). Various countries will report Manufacturing PMI data this week.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

Nasdaq

Neutral

None

None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

None

Neutral

None

None

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU5, TLU2, 19,968, TLU11, 19,440, TLU4, 18,669, 18,557, 18,367

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1,2,522
Potential support around TLU5, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU3, 5,538
Potential support around TLU4, TLU1, TLU7, 5,041, 4,960, 4,896, 4,816

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU3, 1,519
Potential support around 1,389, TLU1, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out (SG Time)
27 Feb, Mon

2130 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan)
2300 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jan)

28 Feb, Tue

2130 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
2300 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Feb)

01 Mar, Wed

USD U.S. President Trump Speaks
0830 AUD GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
1655 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
1700 EUR German Unemployment Change (Feb)
1730 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
2300 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
2300 USD Crude Oil Inventories
2300 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision

02 Mar, Thu

1730 GBP Construction PMI (Feb)
1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Feb)
2130 CAD GDP (MoM) (Dec)

03 Mar, Fri

1730 GBP Services PMI (Feb)
2300 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

04 Mar, Sat

0200 USD Fed's Yellen Speech

Sunday, February 19, 2017

Dollar Index pull back

Dollar Index broke lhf on the weekly chart but failed to close above it.
Dollar Index also tested resistance TLU6 and 101.5.
Resistance at TLD5, 101.5, TLU6, Trend Channel (Blue)
Support at 100.3, Trend Channel (Blue), 99.8, 98.3, TLU7, TLU9, 97.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 18 Feb 17

BDI recovered 702 (10 Feb) to 741 (17 Feb)
Harpex move from 323.84 (04 Feb) to 325.335 (11 Feb)

Summary
Commodities reversed from last week, most closed lower while Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa closed higher.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

Cocoa (1)
Rough Rice

Neutral

None

Up Trend

None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

Soybean Meal
Crude
Cotton
Silver

Neutral

Copper

Down Trend

None

Indices Performance Chart - 18 Feb 17

Most markets continued to close higher with dollar index pulling back. US markets continue to create the new high. Harpex continues to recover higher.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

Nasdaq

Neutral

None

None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

None

Neutral

None

None

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU5, TLU2, 19,968, TLU11, 19,440, TLU4, 18,669, 18,557, 18,367

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1,2,522
Potential support around TLU5, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU3, 5,538
Potential support around TLU4, TLU1, TLU7, 5,041, 4,960, 4,896, 4,816

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU3, 1,519
Potential support around 1,389, TLU1, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out (SG Time)
20 Feb, Mon

US and Canada Holiday
No important data

21 Feb, Tue

0830 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
1630 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

22 Feb, Wed

1700 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Feb)
1730 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jan)
2130 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
2300 USD Existing Home Sales (Jan)

23 Feb, Thu

0300 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
1500 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

24 Feb, Fri

2130 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)
2300 USD New Home Sales (Jan)