Australia
Daily UT, Weekly DT
New diff is formed. Broke down and closed below TLD4. Inside day of 29 Mar. If unable to close above TLD4 for 2-3 days, may see more selling.
Potential resistance around 5,025, TLU6, TLD4, TLD5, 5,138, TLU3, 5,266, 5,316
Potential support around TLU4, TLD3, 4,833, TLU5, 4,696, TLD1
Japan
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Broke down from consolidation. If TLU5 unable to hold, may see testing 15,418.
Potential resistance around TLU4, 16,581, 16,896, 17,328, 17,890, 18,565
Potential support around TLD3, TLU5, 15,418, 14,366, 13,843, 13,315
Hong Kong
Daily UT, Weekly DT
New diff is formed. Tested TLU2 but unable to hold and closed within consolidation range
Potential resistance around TLU2, TLU4, 21,080, 21,682, TLD5, 22,409
Potential support around 20,011, TLD4, 19,073, TLU3, TLD2, TLD1, 18,051
Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily UT, Weekly DT
TLU4 will be the important support to watch retracement.
Potential resistance around 9,006, 9,195, TLU2, 9,658, TLD4, 10,182
Potential support around TLU4, 8,637, TLD3, 8,102, TLD2, TLU3
UK
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Consolidating for the 5th week between 6,070 and 6,237.
Potential resistance around 6,297, 6,429, TLU2, 6,578, 6,809
Potential support around 6,125, 6,070, TLD1, 6,010, TLD3, TLD2, 5,894
Germany
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Consolidating, if break above TLD2 for 2-3 days may see some upside.
Potential resistance around TLU1, TLU2, 9,924, 10,189, TLD2, 10,653, 10,930
Potential support around 9,679, 9,468, 9,216, 8,928
India
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Consolidating got 2nd week. Next strong resistance level will be upper bound of Down trend channel
Potential resistance around 7,817, 7,929, 7,991, TLU2, 8,085
Potential support around 7,682, 7,538, TLD3, 7,417, 7,216, TLD2, 6,887
Key event to watch out (SG Time)
04 Apr, Mon
- China and Hong Kong holiday
- 0930 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
- 1630 GBP Construction PMI (Mar)
05 Apr, Tue
- 1230 AUD Interest Rate Decision (Apr)
- 1630 GBP Construction PMI (Mar)
- 1630 GBP Services PMI (Mar)
- 2200 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
06 Apr, Wed
- 1630 GBP Services PMI (Mar)
- 2200 CAD Ivey PMI (Mar)
- 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
07 Apr, Thu
08 Apr, Fri
- India holiday
- 1630 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Feb)
- 2030 CAD Employment Change (Mar)
US markets closed higher, Europe closed lower while Asia is mixed.
Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
- DOW (decreased for 2nd week)
- S&P (1) (increased for 2nd week)
- Nasdaq (1) (decreased for 1st week)
- Russell (1) (decreased for few weeks)
Neutral
DT
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
US markets continue to close higher after Fed Yellen "hawiksh" speech. New diff is formed and closed above it. Russell looking at 1082 level for support for past few weeks. This coming week not much important data from US and soon companies will start to report earning. These will determine whether had markets overrun or due for pull back or continue to go higher as the result is inline with investor expectation.
Dow
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 17,829, TLU4, 18,189, 18,637, TLU2, TLU9, TLU5
Potential support around 17,600, TLD2, TLD1, 17,271, 17,083, 16,745, 16,503
S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,061, 2,102, TLU4, 2,116, 2,129, TLU5
Potential support around 2,061, 2,045, 2,028, 1,996, 1,973, 1,930
Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around TLU1, 4,640, 4,682, 4,772, TLU6, TLU4, TLU5
Potential support around 4,537, TLD2, 4,347, 4,271, 4,193, TLU2, 4,089
Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,137, TLU2, 1,164, 1,185, 1,213
Potential support around 1,114, 1,082, TLD3, 1,049, TLD1, 1,009
As mentioned last week, possible of technical rebound. It even broke out of TLD4 and TLU6. With better than expected GDP on Fri, expected dollar index to maintain in the beginning of the week.
Resistance at TLD4, TLD1, TLU6, 96.3, 97.3, TLU2, TLD2, TLU5, 98.3
Support at 94.0, 93.3, 92.5
USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)
Weekly chart with 50 SMA
BDI continue to edge higher from 395 (18 Mar) to 406 (24 Mar)
Harpex lower from 364.9 (12 Mar) to 364.13 (19 Mar)
Summary
Most commodities closed lower except for grains closed higher
COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
- Oats
- Soybean Meal
- Natural Gas (1)
- Cotton
Neutral
Up Trend
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
- Soybean Oil
- Crude
- Gasoline
- Heating Oil
- Gold
- Silver
Neutral
Down Trend
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
Australia
Daily UT, Weekly DT
New weekly Diff is formed. The week closed below daily and weekly diff. TLD4 continue to be an important support for retracement.
Potential resistance around TLD5, 5,138, TLU3, 5,266, 5,316, TLU2, 5,463
Potential support around TLD4, 5,025, TLD3, TLU6, TLU4, 4,833, TLD1, 4,696
Japan
Daily DT, Weekly DT
In consolidation between 17,328 and TLU4. COY buying interest drop below 70.
Potential resistance around 17,328, 17,890, 18,565, TLU2, 19,092
Potential support around 16,896, 16,581, TLU4, TLD3, TLU5, 15,418, 14,366
Hong Kong
Daily UT, Weekly DT
New daily and weekly diff are formed. TLU4 was broken, if unable to recover, may see testing TLD4.
Potential resistance around TLU4, TLU2, 21,080, 21,682, TLD5, 22,409
Potential support around 20,011, TLD4, 19,073, TLD2, TLD1, TLU3, 18,051
Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily UT, Weekly DT
TLU4 will be the important support to watch retracement.
Potential resistance around 8,637, TLD3, 9,006, 9,195, TLU2, 9,658, TLD4, 10,182
Potential support around TLU4, TLD2, 8,102, TLU3, TLD1, 6,727
UK
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Consolidating for 4 weeks. If can close above consolidating range for 2-3 days will see more upside while below will see more downside.
Potential resistance around 6,297, 6,429, TLU2, 6,578, 6,809
Potential support around 6,125, 6,070, TLD1, 6,010, TLD3, TLD2, 5,894
Germany
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Consolidating, if break above TLD2 for 2-3 days may see some upside.
Potential resistance around TLU1, TLU2, 9,924, 10,189, TLD2, 10,653, 10,930
Potential support around 9,679, 9,468, 9,216, 8,928
India
Daily UT, Weekly DT
New diff is formed. After broke out from consolidating on Mon become directionless, forming Doji for the rest of the day. Next strong resistance level will be upper bound of Down trend channel
Potential resistance around 7,682, 7,817, 7,929, TLU2, 7,991
Potential support around 7,538, TLD3, 7,417, 7,216, TLD2, 6,887, 6,695
Key event to watch out (SG Time)
28 Mar, Mon
- Germany, Hong Kong, Australia, UK holiday
- 2200 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)
29 Mar, Tue
- 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Mar)
- 2330 USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
30 Mar, Wed
- 2015 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar)
- 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
31 Mar, Thu
- 1500 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
- 1555 EUR German Unemployment Change (Mar)
- 1630 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
- 1630 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q4)
- 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Mar)
- 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (Jan)
01 Apr, Fri
- India holiday
- 0750 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1)
- 0750 JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q1)
- 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
- 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
- 1630 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
- 2030 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)
- 2030 USD Unemployment Rate (Mar)
- 2200 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Most markets closed lower on a short trading week.
Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
- DOW (decreased for 1st week)
- S&P (1) (increased for 1st week)
- Nasdaq (1) (increased for 3rd week)
- Russell (1) (decreased for 3rd week)
Neutral
DT
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
US markets closed with a -roc this week (except for Nasdaq) on weekly chart while daily chart show the last trading day closed with +roc pin bar even before GDP data is released. Overall the trend had changed to UT. With better than expected GDP data, expecting Mon opening to trade higher but will watch for price action (above or below OP). There will be US important data releasing on Wed and Fri that may set the tone for the markets.
Dow
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 17,600, 17,829, TLU4, 18,189, 18,637, TLU9, TLU5
Potential support around TLD2, TLD1, 17,271, 17,083, 16,745, 16,503, 16,246
S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,045, 2,061, 2,102, TLU4, 2,116, 2,129, TLU5
Potential support around 2,028, 1,996, 1,973, 1,930
Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 4,537, TLU1, 4,640, 4,682, TLU6, 4,772
Potential support around TLD2, 4,347, 4,271, 4,193, TLU2, 4,089, 3,956
Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,082, 1,114, 1,137, TLU2, 1,164, 1,185, 1,213
Potential support around TLD3, 1,049, TLD1, 1,009, TLD2, TLU4, 951
