Indices Performance Chart - 03 Jan 15

HK and China markets edge higher more than 2% this week while STI only up by 0.5% where Europe, US and Japan closed lower.

** Due to festive season COT Data will be delay till 31 Dec 2014 (SG Time)

US indices broke pwl (previous week low) in weekly chart, this reflect some weakness in US indices, not a good sign, need to be caution

Commitments of Traders (23 Dec 2014)

This is an ad hoc posting due to delay in releasing COT data

Commodities
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Down Trend

• Oats
• Heating Oil
• Copper (1)
• Coffee Arabica (from neutral to DT)
• Natural Gas (1) (from neutral to DT)
• Platinum

Neutral

• Sugar Raw (from DT to neutral)

Up Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Palladium

Financial
Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

Up Trend

• Dow (sharp increased for 1st week)
• Nasdaq (increased for few weeks)
• S&P (increased for 2nd week)
• Russell (decreased for 1st week)

 

Note
(1) COT Index > 90
(2) No COT data available

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Rough Rice failed to breakout

Posting on Rough Rice (27 Dec 14) waiting for potential breakout, instead of breakout, it breakdown.  No trade was done, therefore no losses.  By right should do a short but by the time I discovered is too late too short.

Oats Seasonal Pattern?

Based on CMC weekly chart with 4 years of data (max on CMC), Oats seem to have a seasonal pattern of forming a low on last week of Dec or 1^st week of Jan and trade higher till Feb.  I will enter a small if break LHF in weekly chart with stop loss at 282 (based on CMC year 2012 low).

Rough Rice and Russell

Rough Rice seem to be forming an ascending triangle, may take 2 weeks or more for a potential break out. 

Russell had broke the range bound (or box theory).  May wait for confirmation on the breakout or enter small positions to build up.  

US Dollar Index hit new high

US Dollar continue to hit new high 90.41 and closed at 90.31 for the week.

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA