Dollar Index tested resistance and support

Dollar Index tested TLD6 resistance, pull back testing 100.3 support for 2 consecutive days and closed above it.  TLU9 will be a strong support.
Break and close below it for 2-3 days will have more downside potential.

Resistance at TLD6, 101.5, Trend Channel (Blue), TLU6, 102.2
Support at 100.3, 99.8, TLU9, TLD5, TLU7, 98.3, 97.3, 96.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 14 Apr 17

BDI closed at 1296 (13 Apr) from 1223 (07 Apr)
Harpex broke 500 marks, closed at 513.79 (08 Apr) from 499.48 (01 Apr)

Summary
Grains closed higher, Coffee and Sugar closed lower while the rest closed mixed.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybeans
• Cocoa (1)
• Soybean Oil
• Sugar

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Corn

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle
• Silver

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Indices Performance Chart - 14 Apr 17

Almost all markets closed lower due to shorter trading week and geopolitical reasons. US markets continue with consolidation.
Dollar Index pulls back after testing resistance. It tested 100.3 support and closed above it.
Harpex broke 500 marks.

Be caution on profit taking after good corporate earning result announcement.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Despite US markets broke hlf on the weekly chart (except for Russell), US markets are consolidating within the expected range.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU11, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669, 18,557, TLU1, 18,367

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522
Potential support around 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU4, TLU7, TLU5, 5,538, TLU3
Potential support around 5,237, TLU1, 5,041, 4,960, 4,896, 4,816

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,389, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

17 Apr, Mon

• Australia, Hong Kong, Germany, France, UK public holiday
• 1000 CNY GDP (YoY) (Q1)
• 1000 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb) 

18 Apr, Tue

• 0830 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
• 2030 USD Building Permits (Mar)

19 Apr, Wed

• 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories

20 Apr, Thu

• 0645 NZD CPI (QoQ) (Q1) 
• 2030 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) 

21 Apr, Fri

• 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 
• 1630 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Mar)  
• 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Mar) 

Dollar Index broke 100.3 resistance

Dollar Index hovered along 100.3 resistance level for few days and rallied on Fri before closing. Need to overcome TLD6 resistance and close above TLD6 for 2-3 days to continue with the bullishness.
Resistance at TLD6, 101.5, Trend Channel (Blue), TLU6, 102.2
Support at 100.3, 99.8, TLU9, TLD5, TLU7, 98.3, 97.3, 96.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 08 Apr 17

After last week BDI closed at 1297 (31 Mar), it pull back this week to 1223 (07 Apr)
Harpex continue to accelerate more than 10% this week to 499.48 (01 Apr) from 438.94 (25 Mar)

Summary
Energy continue to close higher, Grains closed lower while the rest are mixed.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa (1)
• Soybean Oil
• Sugar

Neutral

• Corn

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Silver

Neutral

• Feeder Cattle

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Indices Performance Chart - 08 Apr 17

Asia closed mixed while most of the Europe and US closed higher for the week.
US markets are directionless for past 2 weeks.  US markets are directionless for past 2 weeks.  Moving forward, the corporate earning result will be one of the keys to move the market.  Interestingly in COT data show that retailers more long positions than short. 
Dollar Index broke 100.3 resistance level on Fri.  
Harpex accelerated sharply by more than 10%.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT

• None

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

The weekly chart for Dow, S&P and Nasdaq broke lhf but failed to hold. US markets (except Nasdaq) are moving lower since late Feb and is directionless for past 2 weeks.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU11, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669, 18,557, TLU1, 18,367

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522
Potential support around 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, 5,538, TLU3
Potential support around TLU7, TLU4, TLU1, 5,041, 4,960, 4,896, 4,816

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,389, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

13 Apr, Mon

• No important data

11 Apr, Tue

• 0200 USD Fed's Yellen Speech
• 1630 GBP CPI (YoY) (Mar) 
• 1700 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr)
• 2200 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Feb) 

12 Apr, Wed

• 0930 CNY CPI (YoY) (Mar) 
• 1630 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Feb) 
• 1630 GBP Claimant Count Change (Mar) 
• 2200 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
• 2200 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
• 2315 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks 

13 Apr, Thu

• 0930 AUD Employment Change (Mar)
• 1400 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Mar) 
• 2030 USD PPI (MoM) (Mar)

14 Apr, Fri

• Hong Kong, UK, France, Germany Canada, US public holiday
• 2030 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)