Sunday, May 8, 2016

Indices Performance Chart - 07 May 16

Most markets continue to close lower due to job data below expectation.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • S&P (increased for 1st week)
  • Nasdaq (1) (increased for 2nd week)
  • Russell (increased for 1st week)
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme

(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US markets continue to close lower.  A new diff is formed.  Not much important data for the coming week.  
Watching Nasdaq, 
1) sharp increased on buying interest
2) if can test trend channel support and rebound
3) if break and close above TLD4, potential short term bullish.
Watching Russell, if break and close above TLD4 will be potential short term bullish.



Dow
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 17,829, TLD4, 18,189, TLU4, 18,637, TLU2, TLU9, TLU5
Potential support around  TLD3, 17,600, 17,271, TLD2, TLD1, 17,083

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,061, 2,081, TLD5, TLD3, 2,102, TLU4, 2,116, 2,129, 2,137, TLU5
Potential support around 2,045, 2,028, 1,996, 1,973, 1,930

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around TLD4, 4,347, TLD3, 4,537, 4,640, TLU1, 4,682, 4,772
Potential support around 4,271, TLD2, TLU2, 4,193, 4,089, 3,956

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around TLD5, 1,137, TLU2, 1,164, 1,185, 1,213
Potential support around TLD4, 1,114, 1,082, 1,049

Monday, May 2, 2016

EA Live Result (3 months)

After running with some fine tuning for a year on a demo account, finally it run Live on Feb 2016.  After running for 3 months, the account maintain profitable and the return is about 5%.  


Dollar Index tested 93.0

Dollar Index failed to stay above TLD1 and sell down kicked in.  If 92.5 (Aug 2015 low which is a strong support) fail to hold, may see more sell down
Resistance at 93.3, TLU7, 94.0, TLD6, TLD1, TLU6
Support at TLD5, 92.5, 91.5, 90.6

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 30 Apr 16

BDI continue to close higher again from 688 (22 Apr) to 703 (29 Apr)
Harpex no change for this week at 357.91 (23 Apr)

Summary
Most commodities manage to continue closing higher.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 
  • None
Neutral
  • Oats
Up Trend 
  • Natural Gas (1)
  • Palladium (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 
  • Soybeans
  • Soybean Oil
  • Heating Oil
  • Gold
  • Silver
Neutral 
  • None
Down Trend 
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average








Indices Performance Chart - 30 Apr 16

Most markets closed lower this week.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • S&P (decreased for few weeks)
  • Nasdaq (increased for 1st week)
  • Russell (decreased for 2nd week)
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme

(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average


US markets closed lower this week. DOW, S&P and Nasdaq broke pwl. A new diff is formed and all closed below the Diff.  On daily charts, US markets broke hlf in 2et. Manufacturing PMI, Payrolls data and unemployment rate will bring some volatility.



Dow
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 17,829, TLU4, 18,189, 18,637, TLU2, TLU9, TLU5
Potential support around  TLD3, 17,600, 17,271, TLD2, TLD1, 17,083

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,081, TLD3, 2,102, TLU4, 2,116, 2,129, 2,137, TLU5
Potential support around 2,061, 2,045, 2,028, 1,996, 1,973

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 4,347, 4,537, TLD3, 4,640, TLU1, 4,682, 4,772
Potential support around 4,271, TLD2, TLU2, 4,193, 4,089

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,137, TLU2, 1,164, 1,185, 1,213
Potential support around TLD4, 1,114, 1,082, 1,049


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
02 May, Mon
  • China, HK, Singapore and UK holiday
  • 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
  • 1555 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   
  • 2200 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   
03 May, Tue
  • Japan Holiday
  • 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   
  • 1230 AUD Interest Rate Decision (May) 
  • 1630 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   
04 May, Wed
  • Japan Holiday
  • 0645 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1)   
  • 1630 GBP Construction PMI (Apr) 
  • 2015 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr) 
  • 2200 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 
  • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories 
05 May, Thu
  • Japan and Switzerland Holiday
  • 0930 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 
  • 1630 GBP Services PMI (Apr) 
06 May, Fri
  • 2030 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) 
  • 2030 USD Unemployment Rate (Apr)   
  • 2030 CAD Employment Change (Apr)   
  • 2200 CAD Ivey PMI (Apr)  

Sunday, April 24, 2016

Dollar Index closed higher

Dollar index once again tested 94 level and TLD5 support.  It broke TLD1, TLU7 and closed above it.  To continue with the positive momentum, need to stay above TLD1.
Resistance at 96.3, TLU6, 97.3, TLD2, 98.3
Support at TLU7, TLD1, 94.0, TLU8, 93.3, TLD5, 92.5

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA