Are you ready for Fed rate hike?

One my of friend share with an information on markets will rise after Fed rate hike, I google for it and found some interesting write out to share

1) Historical lessons from Federal Reserve rate-hike cycles (Published in Oct 2014)

by Allianz GI Global Capital Markets & Thematic Research

Quite comprehensive write out comparing the similarity and differences of the last 6 Fed rate hike cycle since 1983
 

2) This is what the S&P 500 did the last 2 times the Fed started hiking rates (Published in 27 Aug 2014) 

3) Chart Of The Day: Interest Rates Vs. S&P 500  (Published in 17 Jun 2013)

4) The 10-Year Relationship Between the SP500 and Fed Funds Rate (Published in 29 Apr 2010)

Gold and Silver

DT
In consolidation mode, moving within Diff.  Will not trade till clearer signal on break out or break down.  The longer the consolidation period, the higher probability of explosive movement

Dollar Index wild swing closed with little change

Dollar Index closed with little change at 97.44.Dollar Index had a wild swing on Fri broke support and recovered.  Dollar Index is supported by trend line TL2 and around 96.3 level but resisted by trend line TL3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 31 Jul 15

BDI closed at 1131 (31 Jul) from 1086 (24 Jul)

Summary
Grains closed mixed while Energy and metals closed lower.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Coffee Arabica (1)
• Sugar
• Oats (1)
• Gasoline
• Copper
• Gold
• Silver (1)
• Palladium (1)
• Platinum

Neutral

• Lumber

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices short term support and resistance

Australia
Neutral
Tested TL1 last Fri and broke lhf on Tue.  On Fri, tested Taos RL and closed above TL2.
Need to break this week for more upside.  Retracement support on Diff level
Have enter long pos on Tue when broke lhf.
Potential resistance around  5,735, 5,845 and 5,932
Potential support around 5,617, 5,528 and 5,463

Japan
UT
Need to stay above 20,052 for more upside
Potential resistance around 20,619, 20,900, 22,500^ and 23,900^
Potential support around  20,052, 19,740 and 19,092
^Est figure using chart provided by Yahoo finance

Hong Kong
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral 
Continue to broke down on Mon, trading within ranges for the subsequent days
Potential resistance around 24,892, 25,571 and 26,681
Potential support around  23,969, 22,409 and 21,682

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily DT, Weekly UT.
Similar to Hong Kong continue to broke down on Mon, trading within
ranges for the subsequent days
Potential resistance around 11,366, 11,821, 12,404 and 13,021
Potential support around 11,080, 10,711 and 10,450

UK
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Resisted by trend line TL2.  If can break and closed above TL2 for 2-3 days, next resistance will be pwh.
Potential resistance around 6,693, 6,809 and 6,949
Potential support around 6,578, 6,489, 6,429 and 6,297

Germany
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Failing to stay above trend line TL1, may see testing pwl.  If pwl is broken, more selling will come in
Potential resistance around 11,532, 11,774, 11,994 and 12,238
Potential support around  11,147, 10,930 and 10,653

India
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Broke pwl and recovered with +roc.  Need to break current week high to maintain the the UT
Potential resistance around 8,578, 8,705, 8,836 and 9,006
Potential support around 8,483, 8,435, 8,311 and 8,223

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
03 Aug, Mon

• 0945 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jul)  
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1630 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)  

04 Aug, Tue

• 0930 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 1230 AUD Interest Rate Decision (Aug) 
• 1330 INR Interest Rate Decision  
• 1630 GBP Construction PMI (Jul)

05 Aug, Wed

• 0645 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2)
• 1630 GBP Services PMI (Jul)
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 

06 Aug, Thu

• 0930 AUD Employment Change (Jul)
• 1630 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jun)
• 1900 GBP Interest Rate Decision (Aug)   

07 Aug, Fri

• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Jul)
• 2030 CAD Employment Change (Jul)
• 2000 CAD Ivey PMI (Jul)

08 Aug, Sat

• 1000 CNY Trade Balance (Jul)

09 Aug, Sun

• 1000 CNY CPI (YoY) (Jul)

Indices Performance Chart - 31 Jul 15

This week most markets (except China A50 and Singapore) had recovered as much as 3% after FED remained interest rate at 0.25% and highlighted on job market is improving.

 

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• Nasdaq (decreased for 3rd week)

Neutral

• S&P (1) (increased for 1st week)
• Russell (increased for 1st week)

DT

• Dow (3) increased for 1st week)

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT

After weak closing last week, US Indices broke pwl and recovered to closed with +ROC.  Russell broke strong support on early week and recovered to closed above strong support.
I have added small long pos when broke LHF,  I will continue to add long pos if the coming week can broke lhf in week chart

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
For Dow to continue UT, it will need to break and close above 17,775, TL1 will be the 1st support for any retracement
Potential resistance around 17,775, 17,922, 18,189 and 18,367
Potential support around 17,624, 17,398, 17,271 and 17,083

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT
For S&P to continue UT, it will need to break and close above 2,116, Diff support for any retracement
Potential resistance around  2,116, 2,129 and 2,137
Potential support around 2,087, 2,061, 2,043 and 2,028

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Nasdaq need to trade and close anove TL2 and TL3 for more upside
Weekly Diff (4,512) will be the immediate support
Potential resistance around 4,640, 4,682, 4,704^ and 4,816^
Potential support around 4,537 4,430 and 4,347
^Est figure using chart provided by Yahoo finance

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Trading and closing above TL1 and TL3, will have more upside for Russell.
Potential resistance around 1,240, 1,257, 1,274 and 1,296
Potential support around 1,225, 1,213 and 1,164