Sunday, January 26, 2025

US Markets 25 Jan 25

The US market closed higher, with the S&P and the Nasdaq closing at historic highs. While the Dow's trend turned neutral, Russell's trend turned down.

While BDI, CDFI and CCFI closed lower, Harpex remained unchanged. BDI slumped 21%.

The dollar index broke the higher-low formation on the weekly chart and closed lower.

Watch out for

  • China and Hong Kong a short trading week
  • Interest Rate Decision by Canada, US and Europe

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages


Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 46,144
Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,280
Potential support around 6,045, 5,809, 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily 
UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 22,154 
Potential support around 21,431, 20,709, 19,986, 19,264, 18,542, 17,819

Russell
Daily 
DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,430, 2,561, 2,691
Potential support around 2,300, 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

27 Jan, Mon

  • Australia on holiday
  • 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • 1700 Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (Jan)
  • 2300 US New Home Sales (Dec)

28 Jan, Tue

  • China on holiday
  • 2130 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)
  • 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jan)

29 Jan, Wed

  • China and Hong Kong on holiday
  • 0830 Australia CPI (YoY) (Q4)
  • 2245 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
  • 2245 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report
  • 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

30 Jan, Thu

  • China and Hong Kong on holiday
  • 0300 US Fed Press Conference
  • 0300 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • 1700 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 
  • 1800 Europe GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 
  • 2115 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Jan)
  • 2115 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan)
  • 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 2145 Europe ECB Press Conference   

31 Jan, Fri

  • China and Hong Kong on holiday
  • 2100 German CPI (MoM) (Jan)  
  • 2130 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
  • 2245 US Chicago PMI (Jan)

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