US Markets 25 Jan 25

The US market closed higher, with the S&P and the Nasdaq closing at historic highs. While the Dow's trend turned neutral, Russell's trend turned down.

While BDI, CDFI and CCFI closed lower, Harpex remained unchanged. BDI slumped 21%.

The dollar index broke the higher-low formation on the weekly chart and closed lower.

Watch out for

• China and Hong Kong a short trading week
• Interest Rate Decision by Canada, US and Europe

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 46,144

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,280

Potential support around 6,045, 5,809, 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 22,154 

Potential support around 21,431, 20,709, 19,986, 19,264, 18,542, 17,819

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,300, 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

27 Jan, Mon

• Australia on holiday
• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1700 Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (Jan)
• 2300 US New Home Sales (Dec)

28 Jan, Tue

• China on holiday
• 2130 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)
• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jan)

29 Jan, Wed

• China and Hong Kong on holiday
• 0830 Australia CPI (YoY) (Q4)
• 2245 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2245 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

30 Jan, Thu

• China and Hong Kong on holiday
• 0300 US Fed Press Conference
• 0300 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 1700 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 
• 1800 Europe GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 
• 2115 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Jan)
• 2115 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan)
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2145 Europe ECB Press Conference   

31 Jan, Fri

• China and Hong Kong on holiday
• 2100 German CPI (MoM) (Jan)  
• 2130 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
• 2245 US Chicago PMI (Jan)

Commodities Update 25 Jan 2025

BDI slumped lower from 987 (17 Jan) to 778 (24 Jan)

Harpex remained unchanged at 2,052 (24 Jan)

CDFI reversed to close lower from 841.73 (17 Jan) to 812.24 (24 Jan)

CCFI closed lower from 1,557.76 (17 Jan) to 1,505.10 (24 Jan)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar (1)
• Cotton (1)

Neutral

• Soybean Meal
• Rough Rice (1)

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• Gold

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke the higher-low formation on the weekly chart and closed lower.
Resistance at 109.7, TLU2, TLU3, 112.6
Support at 106.7, 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 18 Jan 25

The US market broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher. The Dow closed with an outside day on the weekly chart.

While BDI and CCFI closed lower, and Harpex and CDFI closed higher.

The dollar index tested TLU2 and 109.7 resistance and closed lower with a -roc (closing price < opening price) on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• CPI, Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI data by multiple countries
• Japan Interest Rate Decision

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,045

Potential support around 5,809, 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 22,154 

Potential support around 21,431, 20,709, 19,986, 19,264, 18,542, 17,819

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

20 Jan, Mon

• US on holiday

21 Jan, Tue

• US Inauguration Day
• 1500 UK Claimant Count Change (Dec)
• 1500 UK Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 1800 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan)
• 1800 Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan)
• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 Canada CPI (MoM) (Dec)

22 Jan, Wed

• 0545 New Zealand CPI (YoY) (Q4)

23 Jan, Thu

• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)

24 Jan, Fri

• 0100 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 0730 Japan National CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 0730 Japan National Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1430 Japan BoJ Press Conference 
• 1630 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI  
• 1630 Germany HCOB Services PMI 
• 1700 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI  
• 1700 Europe HCOB Services PMI 
• 1725 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 
• 1730 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)   
• 2245 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 
• 2245 US S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)   
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Dec)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan)

Commodities Update 18 Jan 2025

BDI closed lower from 1,048 (10 Jan) to 987.00 (17 Jan)

Harpex closed higher from 2,052 (10 Jan) to 2,058 (17 Jan)

CDFI closed higher from 838.75 (10 Jan) to 841.73 (17 Jan)

CCFI closed lower from 1,560.87 (10 Jan) to 1,557.76 (17 Jan)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat
• Sugar
• Soybean Meal
• Rough Rice
• Cotton

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Heating Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index tested TLU2 and 109.7 resistance and closed lower with a -roc (closing price < opening price) on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 109.7, TLU2, TLU3, 112.6
Support at 106.7, 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 11 Jan 25

 The US market broke consolidation support and closed lower.

BDI closed at 1,048 (10 Jan)

Harpex closed at 2,052 (10 Jan)

CDFI closed at 838.75 (10 Jan)

CCFI closed at 1,560.87 (10 Jan)

The dollar index broke the previous week's high and closed higher. 

Watch out for

• CPI data by multiple countries
• US and China GDP 
• US and UK retail sales

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday.

Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,045

Potential support around 5,809, 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 21,431

Potential support around 20,709, 19,986, 19,264, 18,542, 17,819

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

13 Jan, Mon

• Japan on holiday

14 Jan, Tue

• 2100 US PPI (MoM) (Dec)

15 Jan, Wed

• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 1800 Europe Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jan)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

16 Jan, Thu

• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Dec)
• 0830 Australia Unemployment Rate (Dec)
• 0900 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1500 UK GDP (MoM) (Nov)
• 1500 Germany CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)

17 Jan, Fri

• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)
• 1000 China Chinese Unemployment Rate (Dec)
• 1500 UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 2130 US Building Permits (Dec)  
• 2130 US Housing Starts (Dec)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index closed higher, tested TLU2 and 109.7 resistance, and closed below the resistance.
Resistance at TLU2, 109.7, TLU3, 112.6
Support at 106.7, 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA