Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index closed lower with a small +roc (closing price > opening price).
Resistance at TLU3, 106.7, TLU2, 109.7
Support at 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, TLD2, TLD1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 27 Jul 2024

BDI closed lower from 1,902 (19 Jul) to 1,808 (26 Jul)

Harpex remained the same at 1,997 (26 Jul)

CDFI closed lower from 1,202.33 (19 Jul) to 1,185.11 (26 Jul)

CCFI closed higher from 2,153.56 (19 Jul) to 2,180.69 (26 Jul)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybeans
• Corn (1)
• Oats (1)
• Sugar
• Lumber
• Cotton (1)
• Gasoline
• Palladium

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 27 Jul 24

The US market closed mixed. While the Dow and Russell closed higher, the S&P and Nasdaq closed lower. The Dow broke the previous week's low and recovered. Russell closed with an inside day on the weekly chart.

While CCFI closed higher, BDI and CDFI closed lower, and Harpex remained unchanged.

The dollar index closed lower with a small +roc (closing price > opening price).

Watch out for

• GDP, CPI and Manufacturing PMI  by multiple countries 
• Interest rate decisions by Japan, the US, and the UK.
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P
• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 41,884

Potential support around 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,574, 5,809

Potential support around 5,338, 5,103, 4,867, 4,632, 4,396

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 19,264, 19,986, 20,709

Potential support around 18,542, 17,819, 17,097, 16,374

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around  2,300, 2,430,

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

29 Jul, Mon

• No important data

30 Jul, Tue

• 1600 German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 1700 Europe GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  
• 2000 German CPI (MoM) (Jul)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)

31 Jul, Wed

• 0930 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q2)
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)  
• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 0930 China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1430 Japan BoJ Press Conference  
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jul)  
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul)
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (May)
• 2145 US Chicago PMI (Jul)
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

01 Aug, Thu

• Switzerland on holiday
• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1555 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1700 Europe Unemployment Rate (Jun)
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Aug)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2145 US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Jul)  
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

02 Aug, Fri

• 2030 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Jul)

Dollar Index rebounded

The dollar index tested 103.6 support and rebounded to close higher.
Resistance at TLU3, 106.7, TLU2, 109.7
Support at 103.6, TLD2, 102.3, TLU1, TLD1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 20 Jul 2024

BDI closed lower from 1,997 (12 Jul) to 1,902 (19 Jul)

Harpex closed higher from 1,990 (12 Jul) to 1,997 (19 Jul)

CDFI continued to close lower from 1,219.02 (12 Jul) to 1,202.33 (19 Jul)

CCFI closed higher from 2,085.05 (12 Jul) to 2,153.56 (19 Jul)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybeans (1)
• Corn (1)
• Oats (1)
• Lumber (1)
• Cotton (1)
• Gasoline

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 20 Jul 24

The US market closed mixed. The Dow and Russell lost the week's gains before closing higher. While the S&P closed lower with an outside day on the weekly chart, the Nasdaq broke the higher low's formation on the weekly chart and closed lower.

While Haprex and CCFI closed higher, BDI and CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index tested 103.6 support and rebounded to close higher.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing and Services PMI  by multiple countries 
• US GDP
• Interest rate decision by China and Canada

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 41,884

Potential support around 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,574, 5,809

Potential support around 5,338, 5,103, 4,867, 4,632, 4,396

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 19,986, 20,709, 21,431

Potential support around 19,264, 18,542, 17,819, 17,097

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around  2,300, 2,430,

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

22 Jul, Mon

• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate

23 Jul, Tue

• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Jun)

24 Jul, Wed

• 1530 German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 
• 1530 German HCOB Services PMI (Jul) 
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Jul) 
• 1630 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI  
• 1630 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI  
• 2030 US Building Permits
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance (Jun)
• 2145 US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Jul)  
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)  
• 2145 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Jun)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 2230 Canada BOC Press Conference 

25 Jul, Thu

• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  

26 Jul, Fri

• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 US Personal Spending (MoM) (Jun)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index continued to close lower while consolidating.
Resistance at TLU3, 106.7, TLU2, 109.7
Support at 103.6, TLD2, 102.3, TLU1, TLD1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 13 Jul 2024

BDI closed rebounded from 1,966 (05 Jul) to 1,997 (12 Jul)

Harpex closed higher from 1,973 (05 Jul) to 1,990 (12 Jul)

CDFI closed lower from 1,262.86 (05 Jul) to 1,219.02 (12 Jul)

CCFI closed higher from 2,011.33 (05 Jul) to 2,085.05 (12 Jul)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybeans
• Corn (1)
• Oats (1)
• Lumber (1)
• Cotton (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 13 Jul 24

The US market closed higher. While the S&P and Nasdaq closed at historic highs, the Dow tested the historic high, and Russell rallied and closed at a year's high. 

While BDI, Harpex and CCFi closed higher, CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index continued to close lower while consolidating.

Watch out for

• Speech by US Fed Chair Powell
• Retail Sales and CPI Data by Multiple Countries 
• ECB Interest Rate Decision

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 41,884

Potential support around3 9,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,809

Potential support around 5,574, 5,338, 5,103, 4,867, 4,632, 4,396

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 20,709, 21,431

Potential support around 19,986, 19,264, 18,542, 17,819, 17,097

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

15 Jul, Mon

• Japan on holiday
• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q2)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jul)

16 Jul, Tue

• 0000 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 Canada CPI (MoM) (Jun)

17 Jul, Wed

• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Jun)  
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

18 Jul, Thu

• 0930 Australia Employment Change (Jun)
• 0930 Australia Unemployment Rate (Jun)
• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (Jun)
• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (May)
• 2015 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Jul)
• 2015 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)
• 2045 Europe ECB Press Conference  

19 Jul, Fri

• 0730 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 0730 Japan National CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 1400 UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 2030 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (May)

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index tested TLU3 and closed lower while consolidating.
Resistance at TLU3, 06.7, TLU2, 109.7
Support at 103.6, TLD2, 102.3, TLU1, TLD1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 06 Jul 24

The US market closed higher, except Russell closed lower. While the S&P and Nasdaq closed at historic highs, the Dow and Russell closed with an inside day on the weekly chart. 

BDI closed lower from 2,050 (28 Jun) to 1,966 (05 Jul)

Harpex closed higher from 1,941 (28 Jun) to 1,973 (05 Jul)

CDFI closed lower from 1,288.12 (28 Jun) to 1,262.86 (05 Jul)

CCFI closed higher from 1,922.46 (28 Jun) to 2,011.33 (05 Jul)

The dollar index tested TLU3 and closed lower while consolidating.

Watch out for

• Speech by US Fed Chair Powell 
• CPI Data by multiple countries 

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884

Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,574, 5,809

Potential support around 5,338, 5,103, 4,867, 4,632, 4,396

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 20,709, 21,431

Potential support around 19,986, 19,264, 18,542, 17,819, 17,097

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

08 Jul, Mon

• No important data

09 Jul, Tue

• 2300 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies

10 Jul, Wed

• 0930 China CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 2200 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

11 Jul, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 1400 UK GDP (MoM) (May)
• 1400 German CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

12 Jul, Fri

• 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 2030 US Core PPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)