The dollar index closed with an outside day on the weekly chart.
It tested 93.3 support, rebounded, broke out and closed above 94.0 resistance.
Resistance at 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6, TLD1, TLD2, 88.88, 86.8
Sunday, October 31, 2021
Dollar Index closed with an outside day
Commodities Update 30 Oct 2021
BDI closed lower from 4,410 (21 Oct) to 3,519 (28 Oct)
No change in Harpex, 3,998.80 (22 Oct)
CDFI closed lower from 1,894.87 (22 Oct) to 1,689.66 (29 Oct)
CCFI closed lower from 3,315.27 (22 Oct) to 3,277.71 (29 Oct)
Down Trend
- Palladium (1)
- Feeder Cattle
- Gold
- Gasoline
Up Trend
- None
- None
- None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
US Market 30 Oct 2021
US market closed higher. Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq closed at a historic high. Russell consolidating.
CCFI, BDI and CDFI closed lower while no change in Harpex.
The dollar index broke out and closed above 94.0 resistance with an outside day on the weekly chart.
Watch out for
- US FOMC Statement and US NFP.
- Manufacturing PMI, Employment, and Monetary Policy Statement from multiple countries.
- None
- None
- None
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
- None
- None
- None
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Potential resistance around 37,625
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561
Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)
01 Nov, Mon
- 0600 Australia Markit Manufacturing PMI
- 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
- 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
- 2130 Canada Markit Manufacturing PMI
- 2145 US Canada Markit Manufacturing PMI
- 2300 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
02 Nov, Tue
- 0750 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
- 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
- 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement
- 1655 German Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
- 1700 Europe Markit Manufacturing PMI
03 Nov, Wed
- Japan Holiday
- 0545 New Zealand Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3)
- 0945 China Caixin Services PMI
- 1730 UK Composite PMI (Oct)
- 1730 UK Services PMI (Oct)
- 1800 Europe Unemployment Rate
- 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct)
- 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
- 2300 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
04 Nov, Thu
- 0200 US FOMC Statement
- 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
- 0230 US FOMC Press Conference
- 0830 Australia Retail Sales
- 0830 Australia Balance of Trade
- 1655 Germany Markit Services PMI
- 1700 Europe Germany Markit Services PMI
- 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
- 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
- 2030 US Balance of Trade
- 2030 Canada Balance of Trade
05 Nov, Fri
- 1530 Europe ECB De Guindos Speech
- 1800 Europe Retail Sales
- 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)
- 2030 US Unemployment Rate
- 2030 Canada Employment Change (Oct)
- 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Oct)
Sunday, October 24, 2021
Dollar Index closed lower
The dollar index broke out, failed to hold and ended below 94.0 resistance level.
Resistance at 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 93.3, 92.0, 90.6, TLD1, TLD2, 88.88, 86.8
Commodities Update 23 Oct 2021
BDI closed lower from 4,854 (15 Oct) to 4,410 (21 Oct)
Harpex closed higher from 3,995.82 (08 Oct) to 3,998.80 (15 Oct)
CDFI closed lower from 2,030.41 (15 Oct) to 1,894.87 (22 Oct)
CCFI closed higher from 3,300.34 (15 Oct) to 3,315.27 (22 Oct)
Down Trend
- Palladium (1)
- Gold
- Feeder Cattle
- Gasoline
Up Trend
- Cotton
- None
- None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
US Market 23 Oct 2021
US market closed higher. Dow and S&P closed at a historic high. Russell consolidating.
Harpex and CCFI closed higher while BDI and CDFI closed lower.
The dollar index closed below 94.0 resistance.
Watch out for
- Interest rate decisions by Canada, Japan, and Europe
- CPI, GDP, and Retail Sales data from multiple countries.
- Russell
- None
- None
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
- None
- None
- None
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Potential resistance around 37,625
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561
Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)
25 Oct, Mon
- New Zealand holiday
- 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct)
26 Oct, Tue
- 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)
- 2200 US New Home Sales (Sep)
27 Oct, Wed
- 0830 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q3)
- 1400 German GfK Consumer Confidence (Nov)
- 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep)
- 2030 US Goods Trade Balance
- 2200 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report
- 2200 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
- 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
- 2300 Canada BOC Press Conference
28 Oct, Thu
- 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
- 1100 Japan BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
- 1555 German Unemployment Change (Oct)
- 1945 Europe German Unemployment Change (Oct)
- 1945 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
- 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
- 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
- 2030 Europe ECB Press Conference
- 2200 US ECB Press Conference
29 Oct, Fri
- 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
- 1300 Japan Consumer Confidence (Oct)
- 1600 German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
- 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Oct)
- 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Aug)
- 2200 US Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (Oct)
Sunday, October 17, 2021
Dollar Index broke 94.0 support
The dollar index broke hlf (higher low formation) on the weekly chart. It failed to sustain and closed below 94.0 support level.
Resistance at 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 93.3, 92.0, 90.6, TLD1, TLD2, 88.88, 86.8
COT for Dollar Index
Weekly chart with 50 SMA
Commodities Update 16 Oct 2021
BDI closed lower from 5,526 (08 Oct) to 4,854 (15 Oct)
Harpex closed higher from 3,989.86 (01 Oct) to 3,995.82 (08 Oct)
CDFI closed lower from 2,219.79 (08 Oct) to 2,030.41 (15 Oct)
CCFI closed higher from 3,271.7 (08 Oct) to 3,300.34 (15 Oct)
Down Trend
- Gold (1)
- Palladium (1)
- Platinum
- Gasoline
- Feeder Cattle
Up Trend
- Heating Oil
- Cotton
- None
- None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
US Market 16 Oct 2021
US market broke lhf (lower high formation) on the weekly chart and closed higher.
Harpex and CCFI closed higher while BDI and CDFI closed lower.
The dollar index broke 94.0 support.
Watch out for
- China various data on Monday
- CPI, Manufacturing PMI, Retail Sales data from multiple countries.
- Russell
- None
- None
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
- None
- None
- None
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561
Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)
18 Oct, Mon
- 0545 New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q3)
- 1000 China Unemployment Rate
- 1000 China GDP (YoY)
- 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep)
- 1000 China Retail Sales YoY (Sep)
19 Oct, Tue
- 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
- 2005 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
- 2030 US Building Permits (Sep)
20 Oct, Wed
- 0750 Japan Balance of Trade
- 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
- 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Sep)
- 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Sep)
- 2030 Canada CPI (MoM) (Sep)
- 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
21 Oct, Thu
- 2030 Canada ADP Employment Change
- 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
- 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
- 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Sep)
22 Oct, Fri
- 0701 UK Gfk Consumer Confidence
- 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY
- 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
- 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
- 1600 Euro Area Markit Manufacturing PMI
- 1630 UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
- 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
- 21450 US Markit Manufacturing PMI
- 21450 US Markit Services PMI
Sunday, October 10, 2021
Dollar Index closed with an inside day
The dollar index closed slightly lower with a -roc (close price < open price) inside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6, TLD1, TLD2, 88.88, 86.8
COT for Dollar Index
Weekly chart with 50 SMA
Commodities Update 09 Oct 2021
BDI closed higher from 5,202 (01 Oct) to 5,526 (08 Oct)
Harpex closed higher from 3,980.91 (24 Sep) to 3,989.86 (01 Oct)
CDFI closed higher from 2,208.47 (30 Sep) to 2,219.79 (08 Oct)
CCFI closed higher from 3,220.55 (30 Sep) to 3,271.7 (08 Oct)
Down Trend
- Gold (1)
- Silver
- Platinum
- Palladium (1)
- Feeder Cattle
- Gasoline
Up Trend
- Heating Oil
- Cotton
- None
- None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
US Market 09 Oct 2021
US market closed higher except Russell closed lower. US market consolidating.
Harpex, BDI, CCFI, and CDFI closed higher.
The dollar index closed with an inside day.
- US CPI, PPI and Retail Sales data
- US FOMC Meeting Minutes
Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
- None
- Russell
- None
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
- None
- None
- None
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561
Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)
- Japan and Canada Holiday
- No important data
- 0800 Australia HIA New Home Sales
- 0830 Australia NAB Business Confidence
- 1400 UK Unemployment Rate
- 1400 UK Employment Change
- 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct)
- 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Aug)
- 1400 UK GDP
- 1400 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug)
- 1400 UK Goods Trade Balance
- 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
- Hong Kong Holiday
- 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 0830 Australia Employment Change (Sep)
- 0930 China Inflation Rate
- 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
- 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Sep)
- 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories
- 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
- 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
- 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Sunday, October 3, 2021
Dollar Index broke 94 resistance level
The dollar index tested and closed above 93.3 and 94.0 resistance levels.
Resistance at 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6, TLD1, TLD2, 88.88, 86.8
COT for Dollar Index
Weekly chart with 50 SMA
Commodities Update 02 Oct 2021
BDI closed higher from 4,644 (23 Sep) to 5,202 (01 Oct)
Harpex closed higher from 3,928.73 (17 Sep) to 3,980.91 (24 Sep)
CDFI closed higher from 2,029.19 (24 Sep) to 2,208.47 (30 Sep)
CCFI closed lower from 3,235.26 (24 Sep) to 3,220.55 (30 Sep)
Down Trend
- Gold (1)
- Silver
- Platinum
- Palladium (1)
- Gasoline
- Feeder Cattle
- None
Up Trend
- Heating Oil
- Orange Juice
- None
- None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average
US Market 02 Oct 2021
US market closed lower. S&P and Nasdaq broke pwl (previous week low), recovered some of the losses before closing. Russell continues to consolidate.
Harpex, BDI, and CDFI closed higher while CCFI closed lower.
The dollar index broke the 94.0 resistance level.
Watch out for
- China long holiday
- Australia and New Zealand interest rate decision
- US NFP
Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
- None
- Russell
- None
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
- None
- None
- None
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561
Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)
04 Oct, Mon
- China Holiday
- No important data
05 Oct, Tue
- China Holiday
- 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)
- 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
- 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement
- 1630 UK Composite PMI (Sep)
- 1630 UK Services PMI (Sep)
- 2030 US Balance of Trade (Aug)
- 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
06 Oct, Wed
- China Holiday
- 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
- 1700 Europe Retail Sales (Aug)
- 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)
- 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
07 Oct, Thu
- China Holiday
- 1930 Europe ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
- 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
- 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Sep)
08 Oct, Fri
- 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Sep)
- 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
- 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Sep)
- 2030 Canada Employment Change (Sep)