US Markets 27 Sep 25

The US market broke the previous week's high and reversed, closing lower, except for the Dow, which closed higher.

While BDI and CDFI closed higher, Harpex reversed to close higher, and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index closed higher while consolidating.

Watch out for

• China has a short trading week
• Manufacturing and Services PMI from multiple countries
• US NFP and unemployment rate

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 48,273

Potential support around 46,144, 44,014, 41,884, 39,754

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,751

Potential support around 6,516, 6,280, 6,045, 5,809

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 25,043

Potential support around 24,321, 23,598, 22,876,22,154

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around  2,430, 2,300, 2,170, 2,040

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

29 Sep, Mon 

• No important data

30 Sep, Tue

• 0750 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) 
• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 0930 China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MoM) (Sep)
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Sep)
• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
• 1400 UK GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 2000 Germany CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2145 US Chicago PMI (Sep)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)
• 2200 US JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)

01 Oct, Wed

• China and Hong Kong on holiday
• 0750 Japan Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q3)
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3)
• 1400 UK Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 1555 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 1700 Europe Core CPI (YoY) (Sep)  
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Sep)  
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

02 Oct, Thu

• China on holiday
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

03 Oct, Fri

• China on holiday
• 1555 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Sep)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Sep)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Sep)
• 2130 Canada S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

Commodities Update 27 Sep 25

BDI closed higher from 2,203 (19 Sep) to 2,259 (26 Sep)

Harpex reversed to close higher from 2,210 (19 Sep) to 2,212 (26 Sep)

CDFI closed higher from 1,166.17 (19 Sep) to  1,188.97 (26 Sep)

CCFI closed lower from 1,120.23 (19 Sep) to 1,087.41 (26 Sep)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Sugar
• Cocoa
• Rough Rice (1)
• Oats (1)
• Crude (1)
• Lumber

Neutral

• Cotton  (1)
• Orange Juice
• Platinum

Up Trend

• Corn

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• Palladium

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index continued to be directionless

The dollar index closed higher while consolidating.
Resistance at 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0 

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 20 Sep 25

The US market closed at historic highs.

While BDI and CDFI continued to close higher, Harpex reversed to close lower, and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index tested 96.3 support, rebounded to the consolidation range and closed higher.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing and Services PMI from multiple countries
• Speech by Fed Chair Powell 
• Interest Rate Decision by Switzerland 
• US and Canada GDP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 48,273

Potential support around 46,144, 44,014, 41,884, 39,754

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,751

Potential support around 6,516, 6,280, 6,045, 5,809

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 25,043

Potential support around 24,321, 23,598, 22,876,22,154

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around  2,430, 2,300, 2,170, 2,040

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

22 Sep, Mon

• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate

23 Sep, Tue

• Japan on holiday
• 1530 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep)  
• 1530 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Sep)  
• 1530 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep)  
• 1530 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Sep) 
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep)  
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)  
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)

24 Sep, Wed

• 0035 US Fed Chair Powell Speech 
• 1300 Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
• 1600 Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (Sep)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Aug)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Aug)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

25 Sep, Thu

1. 0750 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes  
2. 1530 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q3)
3. 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug)
4. 2030 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug)
5. 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
6. 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
7. 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Aug)

26 Sep, Fri

• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
• 2030 US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Jul)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep)

Commodities Update 20 Sep 25

BDI continued to close higher from 2,126 (12 Sep) to 2,203 (19 Sep)

Harpex reversed to close lower from 2,215 (12 Sep) to 2,210 (19 Sep)

CDFI continued to close higher from 1,140.14 (12 Sep) to 1,166.17  (19 Sep)

CCFI closed lower from 1,125.3 (12 Sep) to 1,120.23 (19 Sep)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Sugar
• Cocoa
• Rough Rice (1)
• Oats (1)
• Crude (1)
• Lumber

Neutral

• Cotton  (1)
• Corn
• Orange Juice
• Platinum

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index continued to be directionless

The dollar index tested 96.3 support, rebounded to the consolidation range and closed higher.
Resistance at 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0 

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 13 Sep 25

The US market closed higher. The Dow, the S&P and the Nasdaq closed at historic highs.

While BDI and CCFI reversed to close higher, Harpex continued to close higher, and CCFI continued to go lower.

The dollar index remained directionless. It closed lower.

Watch out for

• CPI data from multiple countries
• Interest Rate Decisions by Canada, the US, the UK and Japan.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 46,144, 48,273

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,751

Potential support around 6,516, 6,280, 6,045, 5,809

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 23,598, 24,321

Potential support around 22,876,22,154, 21,431

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,300, 2,170, 2,040, 1,910

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

15 Sep, Mon

• Japan on holiday
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug)
• 1000 China Unemployment Rate (Aug)
• 2030 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep)

16 Sep, Tue

• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (Aug)
• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (Jul)
• 1700 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep)
• 1700 Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep)
• 1700 Europe Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 Canada CPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 2115 US Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)

17 Sep, Wed

• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Aug)  
• 2030 US Housing Starts (MoM) (Aug)
• 2145 Canada BoC Rate Statement  
• 2145 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

18 Sep, Thu

• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference
• 0930 Australia Employment Change (Aug)
• 0930 Australia Unemployment Rate (Aug)
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)

19 Sep, Fri

• 0730 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 0730 Japan National CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1400 UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug)
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)

Commodities Update 13 Sep 25

BDI reversed to close higher from 1,979 (05 Sep) to 2,126 (12 Sep)

Harpex closed higher from 2,213 (05 Sep) to 2,215 (12 Sep)

CDFI reversed to close higher from 1,127.52 (05 Sep) to 1,140.14 (12 Sep)

CCFI closed lower from 1,149.14 (05 Sep) to 1,125.3 (12 Sep)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal
• Sugar (1)
• Cocoa
• Rough Rice (1)
• Oats (1)
• Crude (1)
• Lumber
• Cotton  (1)

Neutral

• Orange Juice

Up Trend

• Platinum

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• Heating Oil

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index continued to be directionless

The dollar index remained directionless. It closed lower.
Resistance at 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0 

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 06 Sep 25

The US market closed higher, except for the Dow, which closed lower. The S&P and Nasdaq closed at historic highs.

While BDI and CCFI reversed to close lower, Harpex closed higher, and CCFI closed lower..

The dollar index remained directionless. It closed the same as the previous week.

Watch out for

• CPI data from multiple countries
• Interest Rate Decision by Europe

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 46,144

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,516, 6,751

Potential support around 6,280, 6,045, 5,809, 5,574

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 23,598, 24,321

Potential support around 22,876,22,154, 21,431

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,300, 2,170, 2,040, 1,910

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

08 Sep, Mon

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 0930 Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Jul)
• 1100 China Exports (YoY) (Aug)
• 1100 China Imports (YoY) (Aug)

09 Sep, Tue

• No important data

10 Sep, Wed

• 0930 China CPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

11 Sep, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 2015 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Sep)
• 2015 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2045 Europe ECB Press Conference  

12 Sep, Fri

• 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 1230 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)
• 1400 UK GDP (MoM) (Jul)
• 1400 Germany CPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep) 

Commodities Update 06 Sep 25

BDI reversed to close lower from 2,025 (29 Aug) to 1,979 (05 Sep)

Harpex closed higher from 2,210 (29 Aug) to 2,213 (05 Sep)

CDFI reversed to close lower from 1,144.25 (29 Aug) to  1,127.52 (05 Sep)

CCFI closed lower from 1,156.32 (29 Aug) to 1,149.14 (05 Sep)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal
• Sugar (1)
• Cocoa
• Rough Rice (1)
• Oats
• Crude
• Lumber

Neutral

• Cotton

Up Trend

• Platinum

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• Heating Oil

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index continued to be directionless

The dollar index remained directionless. It closed the same as the previous week.
Resistance at 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0 

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA