US Markets 26 Jul 25

The US market closed higher. While the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq closed at historic highs, the Russell is consolidating.

While BDI, Harpex and CDFI closed higher, CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index reversed, broke the higher-low formation and closed lower in the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• GDP, Manufacturing PMI and CPI from multiple countries
• Interest Rate decisions by Canada, the US and Japan
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 46,144

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,516

Potential support around 6,280, 6,045, 5,809, 5,574

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around  23,598

Potential support around 22,876, 22,154, 21,431, 20,709

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

28 Jul, Mon

• No important data

29 Jul, Tue

• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)
• 2200 US JOLTS Job Openings (Jun)

30 Jul, Wed

• 0930 Australia CPI (YoY) (Q2)
• 0930 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q2)
• 1600 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 1700 Europe GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  
• 2145 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

31 Jul, Thu

• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference
• 0930 Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Jun)
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 0930 China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1430 Japan BoJ Press Conference  
• 1555 Germany Unemployment Rate (Jul)
• 2000 Germany CPI (MoM) (Jul)  
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (May)

2145 US Chicago PMI (Jul)

01 Aug, Fri

• Switzerland on holiday
• 0930 Australia PPI (QoQ) (Q2)
• 0930 Australia PPI (YoY) (Q2)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MoM) (Jul)
• 1555 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jul)  
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Jul)
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)

Commodities Update 26 Jul 25

BDI closed higher from 2,052 (18 Jul) to 2,257 (25 Jul)

Harpex closed higher from 2,165 (18 Jul) to 2,183 (25 Jul)

CDFI closed higher from 1,099.96 (18 Jul) to 1,143.36 (25 Jul)

CCFI closed lower from 1,303.54 (18 Jul) to 1,261.35 (25 Jul)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal
• Sugar (1)
• Cocoa
• Rough Rice
• Cotton

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Oats
• Crude (1)
• Orange Juice

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle
• Palladium
• Heating Oil

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index reversed, broke the higher-low formation and closed lower in the weekly chart.
Resistance at 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 19 Jul 25

The US market closed higher, except for the Dow, which closed lower. The S&P and Nasdaq closed at historic highs.

While BDI, Harpex and CDFI continued to close higher, CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index continued to close higher.

Watch out for

• Speech by Fed Chair Powell
• Manufacturing and services PMI from multiple countries
• Europe Interest Rate decision 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 46,144

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,516

Potential support around 6,280, 6,045, 5,809, 5,574

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around  23,598

Potential support around 22,876, 22,154, 21,431, 20,709

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

21 Jul, Mon

• Japan on holiday
• 0900 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate

22 Jul, Tue

• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 2130 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks 

23 Jul, Wed

• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Jun)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

24 Jul, Thu

• 1530 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul)  
• 1530 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Jul)  
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul)  
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Jul)  
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)   
• 2015 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 2030 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 2045 Europe ECB Press Conference  
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Jun)

25 Jul, Fri

• 0730 Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)
• 1400 UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 1630 Germany Business Expectations (Jul)
• 1630 Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (Jul)
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun)

Commodities Update 19 Jul 25

BDI continued to close higher from 1,663 (11 Jul) to 2,052 (18 Jul)

Harpex closed higher from 2,164 (11 Jul) to 2,165 (18 Jul)

CDFI continued to close higher from 981.78 (11 Jul) to 1,099.96 (18 Jul)

CCFI closed lower from 1,313.7 (11 Jul) to 1,303.54 (18 Jul)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal
• Sugar
• Cocoa
• Coffee

Neutral

• Rough Rice
• Cotton

Up Trend

• Oats
• Crude (1)
• Orange Juice

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle
• Palladium
• Heating Oil

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index continued to close higher

The dollar index continued to close higher.
Resistance at 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 12 Jul 25

The US market closed lower. 

While BDI, Harpex and CDFI reversed to close higher, CCFI continued to close lower.

The dollar index broke the lower-high formation on the weekly chart and 97.3 resistance to close higher.

Watch out for

• CPI data from multiple countries 
• China data includes GDP, Import, Export and Industrial Production 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 46,144

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,280, 6,516

Potential support around 6,045, 5,809, 5,574, 5,338

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 22,876, 23,598

Potential support around 22,154, 21,431, 20,709, 19,986

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

14 Jul, Mon

• 1100 China Exports (YoY) (Jun)
• 1100 China Imports (YoY) (Jun)

15 Jul, Tue

• 1000 China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jun)
• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q2)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)
• 1000 China Unemployment Rate (Jun)
• 1700 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul)
• 1700 Europe Industrial Production (MoM) (May)
• 1700 Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jul)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 Canada CPI (MoM) (Jun)

16 Jul, Wed

• 0045 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks  
• 0400 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 US Core PPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2115 US Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

17 Jul, Thu

• 0930 Australia Employment Change (Jun)
• 0930 Australia Full Employment Change (Jun)
• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (May)
• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (Jun)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

18 Jul, Fri

• 0730 Japan CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Jun)
• 2030 US Housing Starts (Jun)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul) 

Commodities Update 12 Jul 25

BDI reversed to close higher from 1,436 (04 Jul) to 1,663 (11 Jul)

Harpex closed higher from 2,161 (04 Jul) to 2,164 (11 Jul)

CDFI reversed to close higher from 939.16 (04 Jul) to 981.78 (11 Jul)

CCFI continued to close lower from 1,342.99 (04 Jul) to 1,313.7 (11 Jul)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal
• Sugar
• Cocoa
• Coffee
• Orange Juice
• Cotton

Neutral

• Rough Rice

Up Trend

• Oats
• Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle
• Palladium
• Heating Oil

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index closed rebounded

The dollar index broke the lower-high formation on the weekly chart and 97.3 resistance to close higher.
Resistance at 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke the 96.3 support and recovered some losses before closing lower than the previous week.
Resistance at 97.3, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 05 Jul 25

The US market closed higher. The S&P and Nasdaq closed at historic highs.

BDI closed lower from 1,521 (27 Jun) to 1,436 (04 Jul)

Harpex remained the same at 2,161 (04 Jul)

CDFI closed lower from 945.57 (27 Jun) to 939.16 (04 Jul)

CCFI reversed to close lower from 1,369.34 (27 Jun) to 1,342.99 (04 Jul)

The dollar index broke the 96.3 support and recovered some losses before closing lower than the previous week.

Watch out for

• Australia and New Zealand Interest Rate Decision
• China CPI
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 46,144

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,280

Potential support around 6,045, 5,809, 5,574, 5,338

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 22,876, 23,598

Potential support around 22,154, 21,431, 20,709, 19,986

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

07 Jul, Mon

• No important data

08 Jul, Tue

• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Jun)

09 Jul, Wed

• 0930 China CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

10 Jul, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes  
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

11 Jul, Fri

• 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 1400 UK GDP (MoM) (May)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Jun)
• 2030 Canada Unemployment Rate (Jun)