US Markets 28 Jun 25

The US market closed higher. The S&P and Nasdaq closed at historic highs.

While BDI and CDFI closed lower, Harpex and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index slumped and broke the 97.3 support level.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI by multiple countries
• Speech by Fed Chair Powell
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,280

Potential support around 6,045, 5,809, 5,574, 5,338

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 22,876

Potential support around 22,154, 21,431, 20,709, 19,986

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

30 Jun, Mon

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 0930 China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1400 UK GDP (YoY) (Q1)
• 2000 Germany CPI (MoM) (Jun) 
• 2145 US Chicago PMI (Jun)

01 Jul, Tue

• Canada and Hong Kong are on holiday
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MoM) (Jun)
• 1555 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jun) 
• 2130 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks  
• 2130 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 2200 US JOLTS Job Openings (May)

02 Jul, Wed

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 1700 Europe Unemployment Rate (May)
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

03 Jul, Thu

• US market closes early
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Jun)
• 1555 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Jun)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Jun)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)
• 2030 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Jun)
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

04 Jul, Fri

• US on holiday

Commodities Update 28 Jun 25

BDI continued to close lower from 1,689 (20 Jun) to 1,521 (27 Jun)

Harpex closed higher from 2,158 (20 Jun) to 2,161 (27 Jun)

CDFI continued to close lower from 1,026.69 (20 Jun) to 945.57 (27 Jun)

CCFI closed higher from 1,342.46 (20 Jun) to 1,369.34 (27 Jun)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal
• Sugar

Neutral

• Orange Juice
• Cotton
• Rough Rice

Up Trend

• Cocoa
• Oats
• Gasoline
• Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle
• Palladium
• Heating Oil

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index slumped

The dollar index slumped and broke the 97.3 support level.
Resistance at 97.3, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 21 Jun 25

The US market closed higher, except the S&P closed lower. The US market closed with a -roc (closing price < opening price) on the weekly chart.

BDI reversed to close lower from 1,968 (13 Jun) to 1,689 (20 Jun)

Harpex remained the same at 2,158 (20 Jun)

CDFI reversed to close lower from 1,105.25 (13 Jun) to 1,026.69 (20 Jun)

CCFI closed higher from 1,243.05 (13 Jun) to 1,342.46 (20 Jun)

The dollar index closed higher with an inside day on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing and services PMI by multiple countries
• US Fed Chair Powell's Testimony 
• US GDP

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,045, 6,280

Potential support around 5,809, 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 22,154, 22,876

Potential support around 21,431, 20,709, 19,986, 19,264

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

23 Jun, Mon

• 1530 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun)  
• 1530 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Jun)  
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun)  
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Jun)  
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)  
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)  
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)  
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)  
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (May)

24 Jun, Tue

• 2030 Canada CPI (MoM) (May)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (May)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)
• 2200 US Fed Chair Powell's Testimony

25 Jun, Wed

• 2200 US Fed Chair Powell's Testimony
• 2200 US New Home Sales (May)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

26 Jun, Thu

• 2030 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May)  
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

27 Jun, Fri

• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US Personal Spending (MoM) (May)
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Apr)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index closed higher with an inside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 98.7, 99.8, 100.3, 102.3
Support at 97.3, 96.3, 95.0

COT for Dollar Index

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 14 Jun 25

The US market broke the previous week's high and reversed to close lower.

BDI, Harpex, CDFI, and CCFI continued to close higher.

The dollar index broke 98.7 and tested 97.3 support levels. It recovered from 97.3 and still closed lower than the previous week.

Watch out for

• Japan, the US, Switzerland and the UK Interest rate decisions
• Multiple countries reporting CPI and Retail Sales

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,045, 6,280

Potential support around 5,809, 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 22,154, 22,876

Potential support around 21,431, 20,709, 19,986, 19,264

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

16 Jun, Mon

• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (May)
• 1000 China Chinese Unemployment Rate (May)
• 2030 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun)

17 Jun, Tue

• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1700 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun)
• 1700 Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (May)

18 Jun, Wed

• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (May)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (May)
• 2030 Building Permits (May)  
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

19 Jun, Thu

• US on holiday
• 0200 US FOMC Statement  
• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0930 Australia Employment Change (May)
• 1530 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q2)
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

20 Jun, Fri

• New Zealand on holiday
• 0730 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (May)
• 0730 Japan National CPI (YoY) (May)
• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1400 UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
• 2030 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

Commodities Update 14 Jun 25

BDI closed higher from 1,633 (06 Jun) to 1,968 (13 Jun)

Harpex closed higher from 2,125 (06 Jun) to 2,158 (13 Jun)

CDFI closed higher from 1,052.37 (06 Jun) to 1,105.25 (13 Jun) 

CCFI closed higher from 1,154.98 (06 Jun) to 1,243.05 (13 Jun)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal
• Sugar (1)

Neutral

• Wheat
• Cotton
• Gasoline
• Crude

Up Trend

• Cocoa
• Oats
• Rough Rice

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke 98.7 and tested 97.3 support levels. It recovered from 97.3 and closed lower than the previous week.
Resistance at 98.7, 99.8, 100.3, 102.3
Support at 97.3, 96.3, 95.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 07 Jun 25

The US market broke the consolidation resistance and closed higher.

BDI, Harpex, CDFI, and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index closed lower while consolidating.

Watch out for

• China and US CPI data

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,045, 6,280

Potential support around 5,809, 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 22,154, 22,876

Potential support around 21,431, 20,709, 19,986, 19,264

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

09 Jun, Mon

• Australia and Switzerland are on holiday
• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 0930 China CPI (YoY) (May)
• 1100 China Exports (YoY) (May)
• 1100 China Imports (YoY) (May)

10 Jun, Tue

• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (Apr)
• 1400 UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Apr)

11 Jun, Wed

• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (May)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

12 Jun, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 1400 UK GDP (MoM) (Apr)
• 1400 UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr)
• 1400 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Apr)
• 1400 UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Apr)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (May)

13 Jun, Fri

• 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 1700 Europe Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)  

Commodities Update 07 Jun 25

BDI continued to close higher from 1,418 (30 May) to 1,633 (06 Jun)

Harpex closed higher from 2,115 (30 May) to 2,125 (06 Jun)

CDFI closed higher from 966.59 (30 May) to 1,052.37 (06 Jun) 

CCFI closed higher from 1,117.61 (30 May) to 1,154.98 (06 Jun)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat
• Corn
• Soybean Meal
• Coffee
• Sugar
• Gasoline
• Crude
• Lumber

Neutral

• Rough Rice
• Cotton

Up Trend

• Orange Juice
• Cocoa
  

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index closed lower while consolidating.
Resistance at 99.8, 100.3, 102.3, TLU1, 103.6
Support at 98.7, 97.3, 96.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 31 May 25

The US market closed higher while consolidating. The Dow turned an uptrend this week.

While BDI reversed to close higher, Harpex, CDFI, and CCFI continued to close higher.

The dollar index broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher, but it failed to overcome the two resistance levels (100.3 and 99.8).

Watch out for

• Speech by US Fed Chair Powell
• Manufacturing PMI  from multiple countries
• Interest rate decision by Canada
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,045, 6,280

Potential support around 5,809, 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 21,431, 22,154, 22,876

Potential support around 20,709, 19,986, 19,264, 18,542

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

02 Jun, Mon

• New Zealand and China are on holiday
• 1400 UK Nationwide HPI (MoM) (May)
• 1400 UK Nationwide HPI (YoY) (May)
• 1555 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)

03 Jun, Tue

• 0100 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks 
• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1700 Europe Core CPI (YoY) (May) 
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (May) 
• 1700 Europe Unemployment Rate (Apr)
• 2200 US JOLTS Job Openings (Apr)

04 Jun, Wed

• 0930 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 0930 Australia GDP (YoY) (Q1)
• 1555 Germany HCOB Services PMI (May)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (May)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (May)
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May)
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (May)
• 2145 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision  
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 2230 Canada BOC Press Conference 

05 Jun, Thu

• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (May)
• 2015 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Jun)
• 2015 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2045 US ECB Press Conference 
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (May)

06 Jun, Fri

• 2030 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (May)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (May)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (May)
• 2030 Canada Unemployment Rate (May)

Commodities Update 31 May 25

BDI reversed to close higher from 1,340 (23 May) to 1,418 (30 May)

Harpex closed higher from 2,102 (23 May) to 2,115 (30 May)

CDFI closed higher from 952.83 (23 May) to 966.59 (30 May) 

CCFI continued to close higher from 1,107.4 (23 May) to 1,117.61 (30 May)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat (1)
• Soybean Meal
• Sugar
• Rough Rice (1)
• Crude
• Lumber
• Copper
• Cotton

Neutral

• Gasoline

Up Trend

• Orange Juice
• Cocoa
  

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index recovered

The dollar index broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher, but it failed to overcome the two resistance levels (100.3 and 99.8).
Resistance at 99.8, 100.3, 102.3, TLU1, 103.6
Support at 98.7, 97.3, 96.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA