US Markets 26 Apr 25

The US market closed higher while consolidating. The S&P, Nasdaq and Russell closed with an outside day on the weekly chart. 

While CDFI and CCFI continued to close higher, BDI reversed to close higher, and Harpex closed lower.

The dollar index broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher.

Watch out for

• Short trading week for China
• GDP and PMI data from multiple countries
• Japan Interest Rate Decision
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 41,884, 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,574, 5,809, 6,045

Potential support around 5,338, 5,103, 4,867, 4,632

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 19,986, 20,709, 21,431

Potential support around 19,264, 18,542, 17,819, 17,097

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

28 Apr, Mon

• No important data

29 Apr, Tue

• Japan on holiday
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance (Mar) 
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Apr)
• 2200 US JOLTS Job Openings (Mar)

30 Apr, Wed

• 0930 Australia CPI (YoY) (Q1)
• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 1600 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q1)  
• 1700 Europe GDP (QoQ) (Q1)  
• 2000 Germany CPI (MoM) (Apr) 
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)  
• 2145 US Chicago PMI (Apr)
• 2200 US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 US Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

01 May, Thu

• China, Hong Kong, Germany, and Switzerland are on holiday
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1400 UK Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Apr)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

02 May, Fri

• China is on holiday
• 0930 Australia PPI (QoQ) (Q1)
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 
• 1555 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Apr)  
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Apr)

Commodities Update 25 Apr 25

BDI reversed to close higher from 1,261 (17 Apr) to 1,373 (25 Apr)

Harpex reversed to close lower from 2,110 (18 Apr) to 2,100 (25 Apr)

CDFI closed higher from 927.22 (18 Apr) to 959.83 (25 Apr)

CCFI closed higher from 1,110.94 (18 Apr) to 1,122.4 (25 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat
• Soybean Meal
• Cotton
• Sugar
• Rough Rice
• Cocoa
• Crude (1)
• Gasoline (1)
• Platinum
• Orange Juice

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Copper

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index rebounded

The dollar index broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher.
Resistance at 98.7, 99.8, 100.3, 102.3
Support at 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 19 Apr 25

The US market closed lower, except for the Russell, which closed higher. While the Dow broke the previous week's high and reversed, the S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell closed with an inside day on the weekly chart.

While Harpex and CCFI closed higher, BDI and CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index closed lower with an inside day on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• Short trading week
• Manufacturing and Services PMI by the US and Europe

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884, 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,338, 5,574, 5,809, 6,045

Potential support around 5,103, 4,867, 4,632

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 18,542, 19,264, 19,986, 20,709

Potential support around 17,819, 17,097, 16,374

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

21 Apr, Mon

• New Zealand, Hong Kong, and most of Europe are on holiday
• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate

22 Apr, Tue

• 1300 Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY)

23 Apr, Wed

• 1530 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 1530 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Apr)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Apr)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Apr) 
• 2030 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Apr) 
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Mar)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

24 Apr, Thu

• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar)  
• 2030 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar)  
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Mar)

25 Apr, Fri

• New Zealand and Australia are on holiday
• 0730 Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)
• 1400 UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 2030 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)

Commodities Update 19 Apr 25

BDI closed lower from 1,274 (11 Apr) to 1,261 (17 Apr)

Harpex closed higher from 2,106 (11 Apr) to 2,110 (18 Apr)

CDFI continued to close lower from 947.8 (11 Apr) to 927.22 (18 Apr)

CCFI continued to close higher from 1,107.28 (11 Apr) to 1,110.94 (18 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat
• Soybean Meal
• Cotton
• Sugar
• Rough Rice (1)
• Cocoa
• Crude (1)
• Gasoline (1)
• Platinum

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Copper

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index directionless

The dollar index closed lower with an inside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 99.8, 100.3, 102.3, TLU1, 103.6
Support at 98.7, 97.3, 96.3, 95.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 12 Apr 25

The US market broke the previous week's low and reversed to close higher.

While Harpex and CDFI closed higher, BDI and CCFI closed lower.
CDFI resumed to close lower, and CCFI reversed to close higher.

The dollar index slumped and broke three support levels: 102.3, 100.3 and 99.8.

Watch out for

• Short trading week
• Speech by US Fed Chair Powell
• Canada and Europe Interest Rate Decision
• CPI data by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• S&P

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 41,884, 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,574, 5,809, 6,045

Potential support around 5,338, 5,103, 4,867, 4,632

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 19,264, 19,986, 20,709

Potential support around 18,542, 17,819, 17,097, 16,374

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

14 Apr, Mon

• 1100 China Exports (YoY) (Mar)
• 1100 China Imports (YoY) (Mar)

15 Apr, Tue

• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (Feb)
• 1400 UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Feb)
• 1700 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr)
• 1700 Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr)
• 1700 Europe Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)
• 2015 Canada Housing Starts (Mar)
• 2030 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr)
• 2030 Canada CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Mar)

16 Apr, Wed

• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q1)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar)
• 1000 China Unemployment Rate (Mar)
• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 1700 Europe Core CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 2145 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 2230 Canada BOC Press Conference 

17 Apr, Thu

• 0100 US 20-Year Note Auction
• 0115 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks  
• 2015 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Housing Starts (Mar)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Mar)  
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr)
• 2045 Europe ECB Press Conference  

18 Apr, Fri

• Most countries are on holiday
• 0730 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Mar)

Commodities Update 12 Apr 25

BDI closed lower from 1,489 (04-Apr) to 1,274 (11 Apr)

Harpex closed higher from 2,082 (04-Apr) to 2,106 (11 Apr)

CDFI resumed to close lower from 1,053.11 (03-Apr) to 947.8 (11 Apr)

CCFI reversed to close higher from 1,102.71 (03-Apr) to 1,107.28 (11 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat
• Soybean Meal
• Cotton
• Rough Rice (1)
• Cocoa
• Crude (1)
• Gasoline
• Platinum

Neutral

• Sugar

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index slumped

The dollar index slumped and broke three support levels: 102.3, 100.3 and 99.8.
Resistance at 99.8, 100.3, 102.3, TLU1, 103.6
Support at 98.7, 97.3, 96.3, 95.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 05 Apr 25

The US market broke the consolidation support and slumped.

While Harpex and CDFI closed higher, BDI and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke consolidation support and slumped. It recovered some losses before closing lower.

Watch out for

• New Zealand Interest Rate Decision
• CPI data by China and US
• FOMC Meeting Minutes

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• S&P

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884, 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,103, 5,338,5,574, 5,809

Potential support around 4,867, 4,632, 4,396, 4,161

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 17,819, 18,542, 19,264, 19,986

Potential support around 17,097, 16,374, 15,652, 14,930

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

07 Apr, Mon

• None

08 Apr, Tue

• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Mar)

09 Apr, Wed

• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1300 Japan Consumer Confidence (Mar)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

10 Apr, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 0930 China CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 0930 China PPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

• 11 Apr, Fri
• 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 1400 UK GDP (MoM) (Feb)
• 1400 Germany CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)  

Commodities Update 05 Apr 25

BDI continued to close lower from 1,602 (28 Mar) to 1,489 (04-Apr)

Harpex closed higher from 2,076 (28 Mar) to 2,082 (04-Apr)

CDFI reversed to close higher from 1,047.77 (28 Mar) to 1,053.11 (03-Apr)

CCFI closed lower from 1,111.71 (28 Mar) to 1,102.71 (03-Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat
• Soybean Meal
• Cotton
• Rough Rice (1)
• Cocoa
• Crude (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index broke consolidation support

The dollar index broke consolidation support and slumped. It recovered some losses before closing lower.
Resistance at TLU1, 103.6, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 102.3, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA