US Markets 29 Mar 25

The US market closed lower. On the weekly chart, S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell closed with an outside day.

While Harpex, BDI and CDFI closed higher, CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index closed lower while consolidating. 

Watch out for

• Australia Interest Rate Decision
• Manufacturing and Services PMI data by multiple countries
• US NFP
• Speech by US Fed Chair Powell

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• S&P

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 41,884, 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,574, 5,809, 6,045, 6,280

Potential support around 5,338, 5,103, 4,867

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 19,264, 19,986, 20,709, 21,431

Potential support around 18,542, 17,819, 17,097

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

31 Mar, Mon

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 0930 China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 2000 Germany CPI (MoM) (Mar) 
• 2145 US Chicago PMI (Mar)

01 Apr, Tue

• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Apr)
• 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement  
• 1555 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Mar) 
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 2200 US JOLTS Job Openings (Feb)

02 Apr, Wed

• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

03 Apr, Thu

• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Mar)
• 1555 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Mar)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Mar)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Mar)
• 1930 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement  
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 Canada S&P Global Services PMI (Mar)
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Mar)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

04 Apr, Fri

• Hong Kong and China on holiday
• 2030 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Mar)
• 2030 Canada Unemployment Rate (Mar)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Mar)
• 2325 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks 

Commodities Update 29 Mar 2025

BDI reversed to close lower from 1,643 (21 Mar) to 1,602 (28 Mar)

Harpex closed higher from 2,075 (21 Mar) to 2,076 (28 Mar)

CDFI reversed to close lower from 1,070.72 (21 Mar) to 1,047.77 (28 Mar)

CCFI closed lower from 1,147.76 (21 Mar) to 1,111.71  (28 Mar)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Cotton (1)
• Rough Rice (1)
• Cocoa
• Crude (1)

Neutral

• Soybean Oil

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index is consolidating

The dollar index closed lower while consolidating. 
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7, TLU2, TLU3, 112.6
Support at 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 22 Mar 25

The US market closed higher. The trend of Russell's weekly chart turned to neutral.

While Harpex, BDI and CDFI closed higher, CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher. 

Watch out for

• GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMI data by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• S&P

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,809, 6,045, 6,280

Potential support around 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 19,986, 20,709, 21,431, 22,154

Potential support around 19,264, 18,542, 17,819

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

24 Mar, Mon

• 1630 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 
• 1630 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Mar) 
• 1700 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 
• 1700 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Mar) 
• 1730 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar)  
• 1730 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Mar) 
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar)  
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Mar) 

25 Mar, Tue

• 0200 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks  
• 0750 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 
• 1300 Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
• 2000 US Building Permits (Feb)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Mar)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Feb)

26 Mar, Wed

• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Feb)
• 2030 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb)
• 2130 US Crude Oil Inventories

27 Mar, Thu

• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

28 Mar, Fri

• 1500 UK GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 1500 UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Jan)
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Feb)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Mar)  

Commodities Update 22 Mar 2025

BDI closed higher from 1,400 (07 Mar) to 1,643 (21 Mar)

Harpex closed higher from 2,070 (07 Mar) to 2,075 (21 Mar)

CDFI closed higher from 1,018.69 (07 Mar) to 1,070.72 (21 Mar)

CCFI closed lower from 1,211.15 (07 Mar) to 1,147.76 (21 Mar)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Sugar
• Cotton (1)
• Rough Rice (1)
• Cocoa
• Crude (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Sugar

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index recovered

The dollar index broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher. 
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7, TLU2, TLU3, 112.6
Support at 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

No update for this week

Due to work commitments, there is no update.

US Markets 08 Mar 25

The US market closed lower. The daily chart trends of the S&P and Nasdaq have turned a downtrend.

While Harpex, BDI and CDFI closed higher, CCFI continued to close lower.

The dollar index broke 106.7 support, tested and closed above 103.6 support. 

Watch out for

• Japan and UK GDP data
• Canada Interest Rate Decision
• US and Germany CPI

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• S&P

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,809, 6,045, 6,280

Potential support around 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 20,709, 21,431, 22,154, 22,876

Potential support around 19,986, 19,264, 18,542

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

10 Mar, Mon

• Start of Daylight Saving 

11 Mar, Tue

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 2200 US JOLTS Job Openings (Jan)

12 Mar, Wed

• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Feb)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Feb)
• 2130 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 2145 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2230 Canada BOC Press Conference

13 Mar, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Feb)

14 Mar, Fri

• 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 1500 UK GDP (MoM) (Jan)
• 1500 Germany CPI (MoM) (Feb)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Mar)  

Commodities Update 08 Mar 2025

BDI continued to close higher from 981 (21 Feb) to 1,400 (07 Mar)

Harpex closed higher from 2,067 (21 Feb) to 2,070 (07 Mar)

CDFI continued to close higher from 881.32 (21 Feb) to 1,018.69 (07 Mar)

CCFI closed lower from 1,318.71 (21 Feb) to 1,211.15 (07 Mar)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar
• Cotton (1)
• Rough Rice (1)
• Cocoa
• Crude

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index slumped

The dollar index broke 106.7 support, tested and closed above 103.6 support.
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7, TLU2, TLU3, 112.6
Support at 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA