US Markets 22 Feb 25

The US market closed lower. The Dow and Russell broke the higher-low formation.

While Harpex, BDI and CDFI closed higher, CCFI continued to close lower.

The dollar index closed lower with a small roc. 

Watch out for

• GDP and CPI data by multiple countries

There will be no summary update next week due to personal and work commitments.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,045, 6,280

Potential support around 5,809, 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 22,154, 22,876

Potential support around 21,431, 20,709, 19,986, 19,264, 18,542

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

24 Feb, Mon

• Japan on holiday
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jan)

25 Feb, Tue

• 1500 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Feb)

26 Feb, Wed

• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 2300 US New Home Sales (Jan)

27 Feb, Thu

• 1600 Switzerland GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 2130 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan)
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)  
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

28 Feb, Fri

• 1500 UK Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Feb)
• 2100 Germany CPI (MoM) (Feb) 
• 2130 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan)
• 2130 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jan)
• 2130 Canada GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 2245 US Chicago PMI (Feb)

Commodities Update 22 Feb 2025

BDI reversed to close higher from 792 (14 Feb) to 981 (21 Feb)

Harpex closed higher from 2,063 (14 Feb) to 2,067 (21 Feb)

CDFI reversed to close higher from 834.32 (14 Feb) to 881.32 (21 Feb)

CCFI closed lower from 1,387.16 (14 Feb) to 1,318.71 (21 Feb)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar
• Cotton
• Rough Rice (1)

Neutral

• Cocoa

Up Trend

• Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index closed lower with a small roc on a weekly chart. 
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7, TLU2, TLU3, 112.6
Support at 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 15 Feb 25

The US market closed higher, except Russell closed lower. The US market is consolidating.

While Harpex closed higher, BDI, CDFI and CCFI resumed to close lower.

The dollar index broke the consolidating support and closed lower.

Watch out for

• Australia and New Zealand Interest Rate Decision 
• Retail Sales, Manufacturing PMI and CPI data by multiple countries
• FOMC Meeting Minutes

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 46,144

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,280

Potential support around 6,045, 5,809, 5,574, 5,338

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 22,154, 22,876

Potential support around 21,431, 20,709, 19,986, 19,264, 18,542

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

17 Feb, Mon

• US and Canada on holiday
• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

18 Feb, Tue

• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
• 1500 UK Claimant Count Change (Jan)
• 1500 UK Unemployment Rate (Dec)
• 1730 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks 
• 1800 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb)
• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)
• 2130 Canada CPI (MoM) (Jan)

19 Feb, Wed

• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 1600 Europe European Central Bank Non-monetary Policy Meeting 
• 2130 US Building Permits (Jan)
• 2130 US Housing Starts (MoM) (Jan)

20 Feb, Thu

• 0300 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Jan)
• 0830 Australia Unemployment Rate (Jan)
• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb)

21 Feb, Fri

• 0100 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 0730 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 1500 UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 1630 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 
• 1700 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 
• 1730 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)  
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2245 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)  
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Jan)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb)

Commodities Update 15 Feb 2025

BDI resumed to close lower after last week's reversal, from 815 (07 Feb) to 792 (14 Feb)

Harpex closed higher from 2,058 (07 Feb) to 2,063 (14 Feb)

CDFI resumed closing lower after last week's reversal,  from 849.48 (07 Feb) to 834.32 (14 Feb)

CCFI closed lower from 1,415.03 (07 Feb) to 1,387.16 (14 Feb)

 COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar (1)
• Cotton (1)
• Rough Rice (1)
• Lumber

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Crude
• Cocoa

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle
• Heating Oil

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke the consolidating support and closed lower.
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7, TLU2, TLU3, 112.6
Support at 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 08 Feb 25

The US market broke the previous week's low and recovered some losses before closing lower.

While BDI, CDFI and Harpex closed higher, CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke the previous week's high, tested 109.7 resistance and reversed to close lower. 

Watch out for

• US Fed Chair Powell Testifies
• US and Germany CPI
• UK and Europe GDP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 46,144

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,045, 6,280

Potential support around 5,809, 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 22,154 

Potential support around 21,431, 20,709, 19,986, 19,264, 18,542, 17,819

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

10 Feb, Mon

• None

11 Feb, Tue

• Japan on holiday
• 0801 UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jan)
• 2015 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks  
• 2300 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies

12 Feb, Wed

• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)
• 2130 US CPI (MoM) (Jan)
• 2300 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

13 Feb, Thu

• 0200 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 1500 UK GDP (YoY) (Q4)  
• 1500 Germany CPI (MoM) (Jan)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Jan)

14 Feb, Fri

• 0200 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 1800 Europe GDP (QoQ) (Q4)  
• 2100 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 2100 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)

Commodities Update 08 Feb 2025

BDI reversed to close higher from 735 (31 Jan) to 815 (07 Feb)

Harpex edged higher from 2,057 (31 Jan) to 2,058 (07 Feb)

CDFI reversed to close higher from 805.19 (27 Jan) to 849.48 (07 Feb)

CCFI closed lower from 1,505.10 (24 Jan) to 1,415.03 (07 Feb)

 COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar (1)
• Cotton (1)
• Rough Rice
• Lumber

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle
• Corn

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke the previous week's high, tested 109.7 resistance and reversed to close lower. 
Resistance at 109.7, TLU2, TLU3, 112.6
Support at 106.7, 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 01 Feb 25

The US market closed lower with a +roc (closing price > opening price) on the weekly chart, except Russell closed lower with a small -roc (closing price < opening price).

While BDI, CDFI and Harpex closed lower, CCFI remained unchanged due to China's long holiday.

The dollar index closed higher with an inside day on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• Interest Rate Decision by UK
• Manufacturing and Services PMI data by multiple countries.
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 46,144

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,045, 6,280

Potential support around 5,809, 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 22,154 

Potential support around 21,431, 20,709, 19,986, 19,264, 18,542, 17,819

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

03 Feb, Mon

• China on holiday
• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1655 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1700 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1730 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jan)  
• 2245 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 2300 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

04 Feb, Tue

• 2300 US JOLTS Job Openings (Dec)

05 Feb, Wed

• 1655 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Jan)
• 1700 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Jan)
• 1730 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
• 2115 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan)
• 2245 US S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
• 2300 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

06 Feb, Thu

• New Zealand on holiday
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
• 2000 UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes 
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2300 Canada Ivey PMI (Jan)

07 Feb, Fri

• 2130 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
• 2130 US Unemployment Rate (Jan)
• 2130 Canada Employment Change (Jan)
• 2130 Canada Unemployment Rate (Jan)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb)  

Commodities Update 01 Feb 2025

BDI closed lower from 778 (24 Jan) to 735 (31 Jan)

Harpex closed lower from 2,058 (24 Jan) to 2,057 (31 Jan)

CDFI continued to close lower from 812.24 (24 Jan) to 805.19 (27 Jan)

CCFI is closed for a holiday, 1,505.10 (24 Jan)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar (1)
• Cotton (1)
• Rough Rice
• Lumber

Neutral

• Wheat

Up Trend

• Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle
• Gold

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index closed higher with an inside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 109.7, TLU2, TLU3, 112.6
Support at 106.7, 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA