US Markets 12 Apr 25

The US market broke the previous week's low and reversed to close higher.

While Harpex and CDFI closed higher, BDI and CCFI closed lower.
CDFI resumed to close lower, and CCFI reversed to close higher.

The dollar index slumped and broke three support levels: 102.3, 100.3 and 99.8.

Watch out for

• Short trading week
• Speech by US Fed Chair Powell
• Canada and Europe Interest Rate Decision
• CPI data by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• S&P

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 41,884, 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,574, 5,809, 6,045

Potential support around 5,338, 5,103, 4,867, 4,632

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 19,264, 19,986, 20,709

Potential support around 18,542, 17,819, 17,097, 16,374

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

14 Apr, Mon

• 1100 China Exports (YoY) (Mar)
• 1100 China Imports (YoY) (Mar)

15 Apr, Tue

• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (Feb)
• 1400 UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Feb)
• 1700 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr)
• 1700 Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr)
• 1700 Europe Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)
• 2015 Canada Housing Starts (Mar)
• 2030 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr)
• 2030 Canada CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Mar)

16 Apr, Wed

• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q1)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar)
• 1000 China Unemployment Rate (Mar)
• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 1700 Europe Core CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 2145 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 2230 Canada BOC Press Conference 

17 Apr, Thu

• 0100 US 20-Year Note Auction
• 0115 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks  
• 2015 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Housing Starts (Mar)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Mar)  
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr)
• 2045 Europe ECB Press Conference  

18 Apr, Fri

• Most countries are on holiday
• 0730 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Mar)

Commodities Update 12 Apr 25

BDI closed lower from 1,489 (04-Apr) to 1,274 (11 Apr)

Harpex closed higher from 2,082 (04-Apr) to 2,106 (11 Apr)

CDFI resumed to close lower from 1,053.11 (03-Apr) to 947.8 (11 Apr)

CCFI reversed to close higher from 1,102.71 (03-Apr) to 1,107.28 (11 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat
• Soybean Meal
• Cotton
• Rough Rice (1)
• Cocoa
• Crude (1)
• Gasoline
• Platinum

Neutral

• Sugar

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index slumped

The dollar index slumped and broke three support levels: 102.3, 100.3 and 99.8.
Resistance at 99.8, 100.3, 102.3, TLU1, 103.6
Support at 98.7, 97.3, 96.3, 95.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 05 Apr 25

The US market broke the consolidation support and slumped.

While Harpex and CDFI closed higher, BDI and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke consolidation support and slumped. It recovered some losses before closing lower.

Watch out for

• New Zealand Interest Rate Decision
• CPI data by China and US
• FOMC Meeting Minutes

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• S&P

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884, 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,103, 5,338,5,574, 5,809

Potential support around 4,867, 4,632, 4,396, 4,161

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 17,819, 18,542, 19,264, 19,986

Potential support around 17,097, 16,374, 15,652, 14,930

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

07 Apr, Mon

• None

08 Apr, Tue

• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Mar)

09 Apr, Wed

• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1300 Japan Consumer Confidence (Mar)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

10 Apr, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 0930 China CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 0930 China PPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

• 11 Apr, Fri
• 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 1400 UK GDP (MoM) (Feb)
• 1400 Germany CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)  

Commodities Update 05 Apr 25

BDI continued to close lower from 1,602 (28 Mar) to 1,489 (04-Apr)

Harpex closed higher from 2,076 (28 Mar) to 2,082 (04-Apr)

CDFI reversed to close higher from 1,047.77 (28 Mar) to 1,053.11 (03-Apr)

CCFI closed lower from 1,111.71 (28 Mar) to 1,102.71 (03-Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat
• Soybean Meal
• Cotton
• Rough Rice (1)
• Cocoa
• Crude (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index broke consolidation support

The dollar index broke consolidation support and slumped. It recovered some losses before closing lower.
Resistance at TLU1, 103.6, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 102.3, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 29 Mar 25

The US market closed lower. On the weekly chart, S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell closed with an outside day.

While Harpex, BDI and CDFI closed higher, CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index closed lower while consolidating. 

Watch out for

• Australia Interest Rate Decision
• Manufacturing and Services PMI data by multiple countries
• US NFP
• Speech by US Fed Chair Powell

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• S&P

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 41,884, 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,574, 5,809, 6,045, 6,280

Potential support around 5,338, 5,103, 4,867

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 19,264, 19,986, 20,709, 21,431

Potential support around 18,542, 17,819, 17,097

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

31 Mar, Mon

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 0930 China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 2000 Germany CPI (MoM) (Mar) 
• 2145 US Chicago PMI (Mar)

01 Apr, Tue

• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Apr)
• 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement  
• 1555 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Mar) 
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 2200 US JOLTS Job Openings (Feb)

02 Apr, Wed

• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

03 Apr, Thu

• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Mar)
• 1555 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Mar)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Mar)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Mar)
• 1930 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement  
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 Canada S&P Global Services PMI (Mar)
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Mar)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

04 Apr, Fri

• Hong Kong and China on holiday
• 2030 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Mar)
• 2030 Canada Unemployment Rate (Mar)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Mar)
• 2325 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks 

Commodities Update 29 Mar 2025

BDI reversed to close lower from 1,643 (21 Mar) to 1,602 (28 Mar)

Harpex closed higher from 2,075 (21 Mar) to 2,076 (28 Mar)

CDFI reversed to close lower from 1,070.72 (21 Mar) to 1,047.77 (28 Mar)

CCFI closed lower from 1,147.76 (21 Mar) to 1,111.71  (28 Mar)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Cotton (1)
• Rough Rice (1)
• Cocoa
• Crude (1)

Neutral

• Soybean Oil

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index is consolidating

The dollar index closed lower while consolidating. 
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7, TLU2, TLU3, 112.6
Support at 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 22 Mar 25

The US market closed higher. The trend of Russell's weekly chart turned to neutral.

While Harpex, BDI and CDFI closed higher, CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher. 

Watch out for

• GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMI data by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• S&P

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,809, 6,045, 6,280

Potential support around 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 19,986, 20,709, 21,431, 22,154

Potential support around 19,264, 18,542, 17,819

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

24 Mar, Mon

• 1630 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 
• 1630 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Mar) 
• 1700 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 
• 1700 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Mar) 
• 1730 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar)  
• 1730 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Mar) 
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar)  
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Mar) 

25 Mar, Tue

• 0200 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks  
• 0750 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 
• 1300 Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
• 2000 US Building Permits (Feb)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Mar)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Feb)

26 Mar, Wed

• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Feb)
• 2030 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb)
• 2130 US Crude Oil Inventories

27 Mar, Thu

• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

28 Mar, Fri

• 1500 UK GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 1500 UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Jan)
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Feb)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Mar)  

Commodities Update 22 Mar 2025

BDI closed higher from 1,400 (07 Mar) to 1,643 (21 Mar)

Harpex closed higher from 2,070 (07 Mar) to 2,075 (21 Mar)

CDFI closed higher from 1,018.69 (07 Mar) to 1,070.72 (21 Mar)

CCFI closed lower from 1,211.15 (07 Mar) to 1,147.76 (21 Mar)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Sugar
• Cotton (1)
• Rough Rice (1)
• Cocoa
• Crude (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Sugar

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index recovered

The dollar index broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher. 
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7, TLU2, TLU3, 112.6
Support at 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

No update for this week

Due to work commitments, there is no update.

US Markets 08 Mar 25

The US market closed lower. The daily chart trends of the S&P and Nasdaq have turned a downtrend.

While Harpex, BDI and CDFI closed higher, CCFI continued to close lower.

The dollar index broke 106.7 support, tested and closed above 103.6 support. 

Watch out for

• Japan and UK GDP data
• Canada Interest Rate Decision
• US and Germany CPI

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• S&P

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,809, 6,045, 6,280

Potential support around 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 20,709, 21,431, 22,154, 22,876

Potential support around 19,986, 19,264, 18,542

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

10 Mar, Mon

• Start of Daylight Saving 

11 Mar, Tue

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 2200 US JOLTS Job Openings (Jan)

12 Mar, Wed

• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Feb)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Feb)
• 2130 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 2145 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2230 Canada BOC Press Conference

13 Mar, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Feb)

14 Mar, Fri

• 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 1500 UK GDP (MoM) (Jan)
• 1500 Germany CPI (MoM) (Feb)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Mar)