Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index broke the previous week's high and closed higher.
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, 109.7, TLU3
Support at 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3, TLD2, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 14 Dec 2024

BDI closed lower from 1,167 (06 Dec) to 1,051 (13 Dec)

Harpex closed higher from 2,043 (06 Dec) to 2,045(13 Dec)

CDFI closed lower from 934.39 (06 Dec) to 892.25 (13 Dec)

CCFI reversed to close higher from 1,465.16 (06 Dec) to 1,486.06 (13 Dec)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Rough Rice
• Soybeans
• Soybean Meal
• Cotton
• Crude

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Wheat
• Heating Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

US Markets 14 Dec 24

The US market closed lower, except the Nasdaq closed higher and created a historic high.

While Harpex and CCFI closed higher, BDI and CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke the previous week's high and closed higher. 

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and CPI data by multiple countries
• China, the US, Japan, and the UK Interest rate decisions

I will take a break; this update will be the last for 2024. 

The next update will resume on 11 Jan 2025.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P
• Nasdaq
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,280

Potential support around 6,045, 5,809, 5,574, 5,338

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 22,154

Potential support around 21,431, 20,709, 19,986, 19,264, 18,542

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,300, 2,170, 2,040, 1,910

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

16 Dec, Mon

• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov)
• 1000 China Chinese Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 1630 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Dec)  
• 1630 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Dec)  
• 1700 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Dec)  
• 1700 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Dec) 
• 1730 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 
• 1730 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (Dec)  
• 2245 US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Dec)  
• 2245 US S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)  

17 Dec, Tue

• 1500 UK Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• 1500 UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Oct)
• 1800 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec)
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 Canada CPI (MoM) (Nov)

18 Dec, Wed

• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 1800 Europe Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 2130 US Building Permits (Nov)  
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

19 Dec, Thu

• 0300 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0330 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Nov)

20 Dec, Fri

• 0730 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 0730 Japan National CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1500 UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US Personal Spending (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index closed broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher. 
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, 109.7, TLU3
Support at 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3, TLD2, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 07 Dec 2024

BDI slumped again, from 1,354 (29 Nov) to 1,167 (06 Dec)

Harpex closed higher from 2,037 (29 Nov) to 2,043 (06 Dec)

CDFI closed lower from 1,018.10 (29 Nov) to 934.39 (06 Dec)

CCFI reversed to close lower from 1,474.00 (29 Nov) to 1,465.16 (06 Dec)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Rough Rice
• Wheat
• Soybeans
• Soybean Meal
• Cotton
• Crude

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Heating Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

US Markets 07 Dec 24

The US market closed mixed. While the Dow and Russell closed lower, the S&P and Nasdaq broke consolidation resistance and created historic highs.

While Harpex closed higher, BDI continued to slump, and CDFI and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index closed broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher. 

Watch out for

• CPI data by multiple countries
• GDP by Japan and the UK
• Interest rate decisions by Australia, Canada, Europe and Switzerland

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 46,144

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,280

Potential support around 6,045, 5,809, 5,574, 5,338

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 22,154

Potential support around 21,431, 20,709, 19,986, 19,264, 18,542

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,430, 2,300, 2,170, 2,040, 1,910

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

09 Dec, Mon

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 0930 China CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 0930 China PPI (YoY) (Nov)

10 Dec, Tue

• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 1500 Germany CPI (MoM) (Nov)

11 Dec, Wed

• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 2245 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

12 Dec, Thu

• 0200 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Nov)
• 0830 Australia Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 1630 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q4)
• 2115 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Dec)
• 2115 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 2145 Europe ECB Press Conference

13 Dec, Fri

• 1500 UK GDP (MoM) (Oct)

Dollar Index broke 106.7 support

The dollar index closed lower after breaking the lower-high's formation and 106.7 support. 
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, 109.7, TLU3
Support at 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3, TLD2, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 30 Nov 24

The US market closed higher. While the Dow and Russell broke consolidating resistance, the S&P and Nasdaq remained consolidating.

BDI continued to slump, from 1,537 (22 Nov) to 1,354 (29 Nov)

Harpex closed higher from 2,033 (22 N0v) to 2,037 (29 Nov)

CDFI continued to close lower from 1,100.63 (22 Nov) to 1,018.10 (29 Nov)

CCFI closed higher from 1,467.91 (22 Nov) to 1,474.00 (29 Nov)

The dollar index closed lower after breaking the lower-high's formation and 106.7 support. 

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI data by multiple countries
• Speech by Fed Chair Powell 
• US NFP

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 46,144

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,045

Potential support around 5,809, 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 21,431

Potential support around 20,709, 19,986, 19,264, 18,542, 17,819

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,430, 2,300, 2,170, 2,040, 1,910

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

02 Dec, Mon

• 0830 Asutralia Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1655 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1700 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 2245 US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 2300 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

03 Dec, Tue

• 2300 US JOLTS Job Openings (Oct)

04 Dec, Wed

• 0830 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Nov)
• 1700 Europe HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Nov)
• 1730 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (Nov)
• 2115 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov)
• 2230 Canada S&P Global Services PMI (Nov)
• 2245 US S&P Global Services PMI (Nov)
• 2300 US ISM Services PMI (Nov)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

05 Dec, Thu

• 0245 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks 
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2300 Canada Ivey PMI (Nov)

06 Dec, Fri

• 1800 Europe GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2130 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
• 2130 US Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 2130 Canada Employment Change (Nov)
• 2130 Canada Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec)