Dollar Index broke 106.7 resistance

The dollar index broke the 106.7 resistance and closed higher. 
Resistance at TLU2, 109.7, TLU3
Support at 106.7, 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3, TLD2, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 22 Nov 2024

BDI reversed and slumped from 1,785 (15 Nov) to 1,537 (22 Nov)

Harpex closed higher from 1,978 (15 Nov) to 2,033 (22 N0v) 

CDFI reversed to close lower from 1,169.98 (15 Nov) to 1,100.63 (22 Nov)

CCFI closed higher from 1,438.97 (15 Nov) to 1,467.91 (22 Nov)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Rough Rice (1)
• Soybeans
• Cotton (1)

Neutral

• Crude (1)
• Heating Oil

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

US Markets 23 Nov 24

The US market closed higher while consolidating.
The Dow and Russell broke the previous week's low and reversed to close at the historic high. The S&P and Nasdaq closed with an inside day on the weekly chart.

While BDI and CDFI closed lower, Harpex and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index broke the 106.7 resistance and closed higher. 

Watch out for

• US short trading week 
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 46,144

Potential support around 44,014, 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,045

Potential support around 5,809, 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 21,431

Potential support around 20,709, 19,986, 19,264, 18,542, 17,819

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,300, 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

25 Nov, Mon

• 0545 New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ)
• 1700 Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (Nov)

26 Nov, Tue

• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Nov)
• 2300 US New Home Sales (Oct)

27 Nov, Wed

• 0300 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 2130 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct) 
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2245 US Chicago PMI (Nov)
• 2300 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct)
• 2300 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Oct)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

28 Nov, Thu

• US on holiday
• 2100 German CPI (MoM) (Nov) 

29 Nov, Fri

• US on holiday - Market close early
• 1500 Germany Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 1655 Germany Unemployment Change (Nov)
• 1655 Germany Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Nov) 
• 2130 Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

Dollar Index rallied and closed higher

The dollar index rallied and closed higher. It tested 106.7 resistance but failed to hold.
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, 109.7, TLU3
Support at 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3, TLD2, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 16 Nov 2024

BDI continued to close higher from 1,495 (08 Nov) to 1,785 (15 Nov)

Harpex closed higher from 1,975 (08 Nov) to 1,978 (15 Nov)

CDFI continued to close higher from 1,079.17 (08 Nov) to 1,169.98 (15 Nov)

CCFI closed higher from 1,388.22 (08 Nov) to 1,438.97 (15 Nov)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Crude (1)
• Rough Rice (1)

Neutral

• Cotton
• Soybeans
• Heating Oil

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Oil

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

US Markets 16 Nov 24

The US market broke the previous week's high and reversed to close lower.  

BDI, Harpex, CDFI and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index rallied and closed higher. It tested 106.7 resistance but failed to hold.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and CPI data by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,045

Potential support around 5,809, 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 21,431

Potential support around 20,709, 19,986, 19,264, 18,542, 17,819

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,300, 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

18 Nov, Mon

• No important data

19 Nov, Tue

• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 1800 Europe Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 2130 US Building Permits (Oct)
• 2130 US Housing Starts (Oct)
• 2130 Canada CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)

20 Nov, Wed

• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

21 Nov, Thu

• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Oct)

22 Nov, Fri

• 0730 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 1500 UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 1500 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1630 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 
• 1630 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Nov)  
• 1700 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 
• 1700 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Nov)  
• 1730 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (Nov)  
• 1730 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (Nov)  
• 2130 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 2245 US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Nov)  
• 2245 US S&P Global Services PMI (Nov)  
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)

Dollar Index close higher

The dollar index closed higher with an outside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, TLU3, 109.7
Support at 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3, TLD2, 99.8, 98.7, TLD1, 97.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 09 Nov 2024

BDI rebounded to close higher from 1,378 (01 Nov) to 1,495 (08 Nov)

Harpex closed higher from 1,973 (01 Nov) to 1,975 (08 Nov)

CDFI rebounded to close higher from 1,046.37 (01 Nov) to 1,079.17 (08 Nov)

CCFI continued to close higher from 1,367.54 (01 Nov) to 1,388.22 (08 Nov)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Crude (1)
• Rough Rice (1)

Neutral

• Cotton

Up Trend

• Soybeans

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Gold
• Platinum
• Soybean Oil

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

US Markets 09 Nov 24

The US market closed at a historic high.  

BDI, Harpex, CDFI and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index closed higher with an outside day on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• Unemployment and GDP data by multiple countries
• US CPI Data
• Speech by US Fed Chair Powell 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014, 46,144

Potential support around 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,045

Potential support around 5,809, 5,574, 5,338, 5,103

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 20,709, 21,431

Potential support around 19,986, 19,264, 18,542, 17,819, 17,097

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,300, 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

11 Nov, Mon

• No important data

12 Nov, Tue

• 1500 UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Sep)
• 1500 UK Unemployment Rate (Sep)
• 1500 Germany CPI (MoM) (Oct)\
• 1800 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov)
• 1800 Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov)

13 Nov, Wed

• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 US CPI (MoM) (Oct)

14 Nov, Thu

• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Oct)
• 0830 Australia Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• 1800 Europe GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Oct)

15 Nov, Fri

• 0000 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 0400 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks 
• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)
• 1000 China Chinese Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• 1500 UK GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov)

Dollar Index close higher

The dollar index closed higher with a small -ve roc (closing price < opening price) on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, TLU3, 109.7
Support at 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3, TLD2, 99.8, 98.7, TLD1, 97.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 02 Nov 2024

BDI closed lower from 1,410 (25 Oct) to 1,378 (01 Nov)

Harpex continued to close higher from 1,967 (25 Oct) to 1,973 (01 Nov)

CDFI closed lower from 1,065.3 (25 Oct) to 1,046.37 (01 Nov)

CCFI rebounded to close higher from 1,366.4 (25 Oct) to 1,367.54 (01 Nov)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Crude (1)
• Heating Oil
• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Soybeans
• Cotton
• Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Gold
• Platinum

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

US Markets 02 Nov 24

The US market closed lower, except Russell closed higher. 

While BDI and CDFI closed lower, Harpex and CCFI continued to close higher.

The dollar index closed higher with a small -ve roc (closing price < opening price)

Watch out for

• Daylight Saving Time has ended
• U.S. Presidential Election on 05 Nov
• Manufacturing and services PMI by multiple countries
• Interest rate decisions by Australia, the UK and the US

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014

Potential support around 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,809, 6,045

Potential support around 5,574, 5,338, 5,103, 4,867

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 20,709, 21,431

Potential support around 19,986, 19,264, 18,542, 17,819, 17,097

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

04 Nov, Mon

• Japan on holiday
• 1655 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 1700 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

05 Nov, Tue

• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Oct)
• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
• 1730 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite PMI (Oct)
• 1730 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (Oct)
• 1800 US U.S. Presidential Election
• 2245 US S&P Global Services PMI (Oct)
• 2300 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

06 Nov, Wed

• 0200 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 1655 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Oct)
• 1700 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Oct)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

07 Nov, Thu

• 0200 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

08 Nov, Fri

• 0300 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0330 US FOMC Press Conference
• 2130 Candad Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• 2130 Candad Employment Change (Oct)