Dollar Index continued to close higher

The dollar index continued to close higher.
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, TLU3, 109.7
Support at 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, 100.3, TLD2, 99.8, 98.7, TLD1, 97.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 26 Oct 2024

BDI closed lower from 1,576 (18 Oct) to 1,410 (25 Oct)

Harpex closed higher after last week's rebound, from 1,966 (18 Oct) to 1,967 (25 Oct)

CDFI closed lower from 1,100.1 (18 Oct) to 1,065.3 (25 Oct)

CCFI closed lower from 1,405.22 (18 Oct) to 1,366.4 (25 Oct)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Crude (1)

Neutral

• Soybeans

Up Trend

• Cotton

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Gold
• Platinum

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

US Markets 26 Oct 24

The US market broke the higher low formation and closed lower, except the Nasdaq closed higher. 

While BDI, CDFI and CCFI closed lower, Harpex continued to close higher.

The dollar index continued to close higher.

Watch out for

• Daylight Saving Time ends 03 Nov 2024
• Japan Interest Rate Decision
• Europe and US GDP
• US unemployment rate and Nonfarm Payrolls

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014

Potential support around 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,809, 6,045

Potential support around 5,574, 5,338, 5,103, 4,867

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 20,709, 21,431

Potential support around 19,986, 19,264, 18,542, 17,819, 17,097

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

28 Oct, Mon

• New Zealand on holiday

29 Oct, Tue

• 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)
• 2200 USD JOLTS Job Openings (Sep)

30 Oct, Wed

• 1700 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
• 1800 UK Autumn Forecast Statement
• 1800 Europe GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
• 2100 Germany CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

31 Oct, Thu

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1430 Japan BoJ Press Conference
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 1800 Europe Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 1800 Europe Unemployment Rate (Sep)
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2145 US Chicago PMI (Oct)

01 Nov, Fri

• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 1500 UK Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 2200 US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

Dollar Index close higher

The dollar index continued to close higher.
Resistance at 103.6, 106.7, TLU2, TLU3, 109.7
Support at 102.3, TLU1, 100.3, TLD2, 99.8, 98.7, TLD1, 97.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 19 Oct 2024

BDI closed lower from 1,809 (11 Oct) to 1,576 (18 Oct)

Harpex rebounded to close higher from 1,936 (11 Oct) to 1,966 (18 Oct)

CDFI continued to close lower from 1,178.48 (11 Oct) to 1,100.1 (18 Oct)

CCFI continued to close lower from 1,476.98 (11 Oct) to 1,405.22 (18 Oct)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybeans
• Crude (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Cotton
• Corn

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Gold

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

US Markets 19 Oct 24

The US market closed higher. The Dow and S&P closed with historic highs.
The Russell trend turned from Neutral to an up trend.

While BDI, CDFI and CCFI closed lower, Harpex rebounded to close higher.

The dollar index continued to close higher.

Watch out for

• Canada Interest Rate Decision
• Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI data by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Dow
• S&P
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014

Potential support around 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,045

Potential support around 5,809, 5,574, 5,338, 5,103, 4,867

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 20,709, 21,431

Potential support around 19,986, 19,264, 18,542, 17,819, 17,097

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

21 Oct, Mon

• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1400 Germany PPI (MoM) (Sep)

22 Oct, Tue

• 1300 Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
• 2125 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

23 Oct, Wed

• 2145 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Sep)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

24 Oct, Thu

• 1530 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 
• 1530 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Oct) 
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Oct) 
• 1630 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 
• 1630 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (Oct)   
• 2030 US Building Permits (Sep)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2145 US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Oct)  
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Oct)  
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Sep)

25 Oct, Fri

• 0730 Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 1600 Germany Business Expectations (Oct)
• 2030 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep)  
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM)
• 2030 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Oct)

Dollar Index continued to close higher

The dollar index continued to close higher after last week's recovery. It broke 102.3 resistance.
Resistance at 103.6, TLU3, 106.7
Support at 102.3, TLU1, 100.3, TLD2, 99.8, 98.7, TLD1, 97.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 12 Oct 2024

BDI continued to close lower from 1,928 (04 Oct) to 1,809 (11 Oct)

Harpex closed lower from 1,943 (04 Oct) to 1,936 (11 Oct)

CDFI reversed to close lower from 1,261.59 (30 Sep) to 1,178.48 (11 Oct)

CCFI slumped after the long holiday from 1,638.42 (27 Sep) to 1,476.98 (11 Oct)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybeans
• Crude (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Cotton

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

US Markets 12 Oct 24

The US market closed higher. The Dow and S&P closed with historic highs.
The Russell trend turned from a downtrend to Neutral.

BDI, Harpex, CDFI, and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index continued to close higher after last week's recovery. It broke 102.3 resistance.

Watch out for

• Europe Interest Rate Decision
• CPI and Retail Sales data by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• Russell

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014

Potential support around 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,809, 6,045

Potential support around 5,574, 5,338, 5,103, 4,867, 4,632

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 20,709, 21,431

Potential support around 19,986, 19,264, 18,542, 17,819, 17,097

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

14 Oct, Mon

• Japan and Canada on holiday

15 Oct, Tue

• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (Aug)
• 1400 UK Employment Change
• 1705 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct)
• 2030 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Oct)
• 2030 Canada CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)

16 Oct, Wed

• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Sep)

17 Oct, Thu

• 0830 Australia Unemployment Rate (Sep)
• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Sep)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 1700 Europe Core CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 2015 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Oct)
• 2015 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
• 2045 Europe ECB Press Conference  
• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories

18 Oct, Fri

• 0730 Japan National CPI (MoM)
• 0730 Japan National Core CPI (MoM)
• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 1400 UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US Housing Starts (Sep)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Sep)  

Dollar Index recovered to close higher

The dollar index recovered to close higher and resisted at 102.3.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6, TLU3, 106.7
Support at TLU1, 100.3, TLD2, 99.8, 98.7, TLD1, 97.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 05 Oct 2024

BDI reversed to close lower from 2,110 (27 Sep) to 1,928 (04 Oct)

Harpex closed lower from 1,963 (27 Sep) to 1,943 (04 Oct)

CDFI closed higher from 1,260.96 (27 Sep) to 1,261.59 (30 Sep)

CCFI is closed for a long holiday, 1,638.42 (27 Sep)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybeans
• Feeder Cattle
• Crude (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Cotton

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Gold

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 05 Oct 24

The US market broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher.  The Dow and S&P closed with historic highs.
The Nasdaq trend turned from Neutral to an uptrend, and the Russell trend turned from Neutral to a downtrend.

While BDI reversed to close lower, Harpex continued to close lower, CDFI closed higher, and CCFI was closed for a long holiday.

The dollar index recovered to close higher and resisted at 102.3.

Watch out for

• New Zealand Interest Rate Decision
• US CPI 
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Dow
• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 44,014

Potential support around 41,884, 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,809, 6,045

Potential support around 5,574, 5,338, 5,103, 4,867, 4,632

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 20,709, 21,431

Potential support around 19,986, 19,264, 18,542, 17,819, 17,097

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

07 Oct, Mon

• China on holiday

08 Oct, Tue

• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

09 Oct, Wed

• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

10 Oct, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

11 Oct, Fri

• Hong Kong on holiday
• 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 1400 UK GDP (MoM) (Aug)
• 1400 UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)
• 1400 Germany CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US Core PPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Sep)
• 2030 Canada Unemployment Rate (Sep)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct)