Dollar Index edged lower

The dollar index edged lower with an inside day on the weekly chart. The dollar index is consolidating.
Resistance at TLU1, 102.3, 103.6, TLU3, 106.7
Support at TLD2, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7, TLD1, 97.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 14 Sep 2024

BDI reversed to close lower from 1,941 (06 Sep) to 1,890 (13 Sep)

Harpex closed lower from 1,981 (06 Sep) to 1,979 (13 Sep)

CDFI reversed to close lower from 1,246.76 (06 Sep) to 1,233.35 (13 Sep)

CCFI closed lower from 1,912.46 (06 Sep) to 1,818.31 (13 Sep)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Rough Rice
• Soybeans (1)
• Cotton (1)
• Feeder Cattle (1)
• Gasoline (1)
• Crude (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Lumber

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Gold

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 14 Sep 24

The US market closed higher. While the Dow and Russell broke the previous week's low and reversed, the S&P and Nasdaq broke the lower high formation on the weekly chart. The S&P trend turned from an uptrend to Neutral, and the Nasdaq trend turned from neutral to a downtrend.

BDI, Harpex, CCFI, and CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index edged lower with an inside day on the weekly chart. The dollar index is consolidating.

Watch out for

• China short trading week
• Retail Sales and CPI data  by multiple countries
• China, Japan, US and UK interest rate decision

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Russell

Neutral 

• S&P

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 41,884

Potential support around 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,809

Potential support around 5,574, 5,338, 5,103, 4,867, 4,632

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 19,986, 20,709

Potential support around 19,264, 18,542, 17,819, 17,097, 16,374

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

16 Sep, Mon

• China and Japan on holiday
• 2030 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep)

17 Sep, Tue

• China on holiday
• 1700 German German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 Canada CPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 2115 US Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)

18 Sep, Wed

• Hong Kong on holiday
• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 1400 UK PPI Input (MoM) (Aug)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Aug)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

19 Sep, Thu

• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0200 US FOMC Statement
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference
• 0930 Australia Employment Change (Aug)
• 0930 Australia Full Employment Change (Aug)
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Aug)

20 Sep, Fri

• 0730 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 0730 Japan National CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 0900 China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Sep)
• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1400 UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug)
• 1430 Japan BoJ Press Conference
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke the previous week's high and reversed to close lower. It resisted at TLU1.
Resistance at TLU1, 102.3, 103.6, TLU3, 106.7
Support at TLD2, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7, TLD1, 97.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 07 Sep 2024

BDI closed higher from 1,814 (30 Aug) to 1,941 (06 Sep)

Harpex remained no change at 1,981 (06 Sep)

CDFI closed higher from 1,243.73 (30 Aug) to 1,246.76 (06 Sep)

CCFI closed lower from 1,974.46 (30 Aug) to 1,912.46 (06 Sep)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Rough Rice
• Soybeans (1)
• Cotton (1)
• Feeder Cattle (1)
• Gasoline (1)
• Crude (1)
• Platinum

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Lumber

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 07 Sep 24

The US market closed lower. The Dow, S&P, and Russell broke the higher low formation on the weekly charts, and the Nasdaq closed with an inside day on the weekly chart.

While BDI and CDFI closed higher, Harpex remained the same, and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher. It resisted at TLU1.

Watch out for

• CPI data  by multiple countries
• Europe's interest rate decision

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 41,884

Potential support around 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,574, 5,809

Potential support around 5,338, 5,103, 4,867, 4,632

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 18,542, 19,264, 19,986, 20,709

Potential support around 17,819, 17,097, 16,374, 15,652

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

09 Sep, Mon

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 0930 China CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 0930 China PPI (YoY) (Aug)

10 Sep, Tue

• 1400 German CPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 1400 UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Jul)
• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (Jul)

11 Sep, Wed

• 1400 UK GDP (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

12 Sep, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 2015 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Sep)
• 2015 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 2045 Europe ECB Press Conference  

13 Sep, Fri

• 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep) 

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher. It resisted at TLU1.
Resistance at TLU1, 102.3, 103.6, TLU3, 106.7
Support at TLD2, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7, TLD1, 97.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 31 Aug 2024

BDI closed higher from 1,762 (23 Aug) to 1,814 (30 Aug)

Harpex remained no change at 1,981 (30 Aug)

CDFI continued closed higher from 1,217.49(23 Aug) to 1,243.73 (30 Aug)

CCFI closed lower from 2,019.27 (23 Aug) to 1,974.46 (30 Aug)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn (1)
• Rough Rice
• Soybeans (1)
• Soybean Oil
• Cotton (1)
• Feeder Cattle (1)
• Gasoline (1)
• Crude

Neutral

• Sugar

Up Trend

• Palladium
• Lumber

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 31 Aug 24

The US market closed mixed. While the Dow and S&P closed higher, Nasdaq and Russell closed lower. The Dow closed at a historic high. On the daily chart, Nasdaq's uptrend turned neutral.

While BDI and CDFI closed higher, Harpex remained the same, and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher. It resisted at TLU1.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI data  by multiple countries
• Canada's interest rate decision
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 41,884

Potential support around 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,809

Potential support around 5,574, 5,338, 5,103, 4,867, 4,632

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 19,986, 20,709

Potential support around 19,264, 18,542,17,819, 17,097, 16,374

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

02 Sep, Mon

• US and Canada on holiday
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1555 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1630 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

03 Sep, Tue

• 2145 US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

04 Sep, Wed

• 0930 Australia GDP (YoY) (Q2)
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Aug)
• 1555 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Aug)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Aug)
• 1630 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (Aug)
• 2145 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Jul)

05 Sep, Thu

• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Aug)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories

06 Sep, Fri

• 1700 Europe GDP (YoY) (Q2)
• 2030 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Aug)
• 2030 Canada Unemployment Rate (Aug)
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Aug)