Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke the higher-low formation and closed lower.
Resistance at TLD2, TLU1, 102.3, 103.6, TLU3, 106.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7, TLD1, 97.3

Dollar Index Monthly Chart

The dollar index is consolidating.

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 24 Aug 2024

BDI closed higher from 1,691 (16 Aug) to 1,762 (23 Aug)

Harpex edged lower from 1,982 (16 Aug) to 1,981 (23 Aug)

CDFI closed higher after last week's rebound, from 1,194.5 (16 Aug) to 1,217.49 (23 Aug)

CCFI continued to close lower from 2,073.41 (16 Aug) to 2,019.27 (23 Aug)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybeans (1)
• Soybean Oil
• Corn (1)
• Sugar
• Rough Rice
• Feeder Cattle (1)
• Cotton (1)
• Gasoline (1)
• Palladium

Neutral

• Crude

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 24 Aug 24

The US market closed higher. The Dow and S&P are testing historic highs.
On the daily chart, Nasdaq's neutral turned uptrend.

While BDI and CDFI closed higher, Harpex and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke the higher-low formation and closed lower.

Watch out for

• GDP and CPI data  by multiple countries 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 41,884

Potential support around 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,809

Potential support around 5,574, 5,338, 5,103, 4,867, 4,632

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 19,986, 20,709

Potential support around 19,264, 18,542,17,819, 17,097, 16,374

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

26 Aug, Mon

• UK on holiday
• 2030 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul)

27 Aug, Tue

• 1400 German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Aug)

28 Aug, Wed

• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

29 Aug, Thu

• 2000 German CPI (MoM) (Aug) 
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2)   
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

30 Aug, Fri

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 1700 Europe Unemployment Rate (Jul)
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
• 2030 US Personal Spending (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 Canada GDP (Q2)
• 2145 US Chicago PMI (Aug)

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index closed lower with an inside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 103.6, TLU3, 106.7, TLU2, 109.7
Support at 102.3, TLU1, TLD2, TLD1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 17 Aug 2024

BDI closed higher from 1,670 (09 Aug) to 1,691 (16 Aug)

Harpex closed lower from 1,985 (09 Aug) to 1,982 (16 Aug)

CDFI rebounded from 1,178.5 (09 Aug) to 1,194.5 (16 Aug)

CCFI closed lower after last week's rebound, from 2,138.32 (09 Aug) to 2,073.41 (16 Aug)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybeans (1)
• Soybean Oil
• Corn (1)
• Sugar
• Oats (1)
• Rough Rice
• Feeder Cattle (1)
• Cotton (1)

Neutral

• Lumber
• Gasoline (1)
• Crude
• Palladium

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 17 Aug 24

The US market broke the lower high formation on the weekly chart and closed higher. The Dow and S&P are going to test the historic high.
On the daily chart, while the Nasdaq's downtrend turned neutral, the S&P and Russell returned to an uptrend.

While BDI and CDFI closed higher, Harpex and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index closed lower with an inside day on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and CPI data  by multiple countries
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• Jackson Hole Symposium
• Speech by Fed Chair Powell Speech 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• Nasdaq

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 41,884

Potential support around 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,574, 5,809

Potential support around 5,338, 5,103, 4,867, 4,632, 4,396

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 19,986, 20,709

Potential support around 19,264, 18,542,17,819, 17,097, 16,374

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around  2,170, 2,300, 2,430,

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

19 Aug, Mon

• No important data

20 Aug, Tue

• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1400 German PPI (MoM) (Jul)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jul)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 Canada CPI (MoM) (Jul)

21 Aug, Wed

• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

22 Aug, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 0800 US Jackson Hole Symposium
• 1530 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 
• 1530 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Aug) 
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Aug) 
• 1630 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (Aug)  
• 1630 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI  
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2145 US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Aug)  
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Aug)  
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Jul)

23 Aug, Fri

• 0645 New Zealand Core Retail Sales (QoQ)
• 0645 New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ)
• 0730 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)
• 0800 US Jackson Hole Symposium
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Jul)
• 2200 US Fed Chair Powell Speech 

Dollar Index edged lower

The dollar index edged lower with a small +roc (closing price > opening price) on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 103.6, TLU3, 106.7, TLU2, 109.7
Support at 102.3, TLU1, TLD2, TLD1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 10 Aug 2024

BDI closed lower from 1,675 (02 Aug) to 1,670 (09 Aug)

Harpex closed lower from 1,988 (02 Aug) to 1,985 (09 Aug)

CDFI closed lower from 1,180.96 (02 Aug) to 1,178.5 (09 Aug)

CCFI rebounded to close higher from 2,133.48(02 Aug) to 2,138.32 (09 Aug)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybeans (1)
• Soybean Oil
• Corn
• Sugar
• Oats (1)
• Rough Rice
• Lumber
• Cotton (1)
• Gasoline (1)
• Crude (1)
• Palladium

Neutral

• Feeder Cattle (1)

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 10 Aug 24

The US market closed lower with a +roc (closing price > opening price) on the weekly chart. On the daily chart, while the Nasdaq turned to a downtrend, the S&P and Russell turned neutral.

BDI, Harpex and CDFI closed lower, except CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index edged lower with a small +roc (closing price > opening price) on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• GDP data  by multiple countries
• Interest Rate Decision by New Zealand
• UK and US CPI and retail sales data

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• S&P
• Russell

DT 

• Nasdaq

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884

Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,574, 5,809

Potential support around 5,338, 5,103, 4,867, 4,632, 4,396

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 18,542, 19,264, 19,986, 20,709

Potential support around 17,819, 17,097, 16,374, 15,652

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around  2,170, 2,300, 2,430,

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

12 Aug, Mon

• No important data

13 Aug, Tue

• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (Jun)
• 1400 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jun)
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 US Core PPI (MoM) (Jul)

14 Aug, Wed

• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Jul)
• 1700 Europe GDP (YoY) (Q2)  
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Jul)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

15 Aug, Thu

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 
• 0930 Australia Unemployment Rate (Jul)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)
• 1400 UK GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  
• 1400 UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Jun)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)

16 Aug, Fri

• 1400 UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Jul)  
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug)  

Dollar Index closed with an outside day

The dollar index closed lower with an outside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 103.6, TLU3, 106.7, TLU2, 109.7
Support at 102.3, TLU1, TLD2, TLD1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 03 Aug 2024

BDI closed lower from 1,808 (26 Jul) to 1,675 (02 Aug)

Harpex closed lower from 1,997 (26 Jul) to 1,988 (02 Aug)

CDFI closed lower from 1,185.11 (26 Jul) to 1,180.96 (02 Aug)

CCFI closed lower from 2,180.69 (26 Jul) to 2,133.48(02 Aug)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybeans (1)
• Corn (1)
• Oats (1)
• Rough Rice
• Lumber
• Cotton (1)
• Gasoline (1)
• Crude 
• Palladium

Neutral

• Sugar

Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 03 Aug 24

The US market closed lower. Russell closed with an outside day on the weekly chart and broke the consolidating support range. Nasdaq's trend turned to neutral in the daily chart.

BDI, Harpex, CDFI, and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index closed lower with an outside day on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• Services PMI by multiple countries
• Australia Interest Rate Decision

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P
• Russell

Neutral 

• Nasdaq

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884

Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,338, 5,574, 5,809

Potential support around 5,103, 4,867, 4,632, 4,396

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 18,542, 19,264, 19,986, 20,709

Potential support around 17,819, 17,097, 16,374, 15,652

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around  2,170, 2,300, 2,430,

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

05 Aug, Mon

• Canada on holiday
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Jul)
• 1555 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Jul)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Jul)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

06 Aug, Tue

• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug)

07 Aug, Wed

• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Jul)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

08 Aug, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

09 Aug, Fri

• 0101 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 0930 China CPI (MoM) (Jul)
• 1400 German CPI (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Jul)
• 2030 Canada Unemployment Rate (Jul)