Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index closed higher with an inside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, 109.7
Support at TLU3, 103.6, TLD2, 102.3, TLU1, TLD1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 25 May 2024

BDI continued to close lower, from 1,844 (17 May) to 1,797 (24 May)

Harpex closed higher from 1,372 (17 May) to 1,434 (24 May)

CDFI closed lower from 1,267.19 (17 May) to 1,239.00 (24 May)

CCFI closed higher from 1,311.85 (17 May) to 1,389.16 (24 May)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar (1)
• Soybean Oil 
• Feeder Cattle
• Lumber (1)
• Cotton
• Palladium

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Corn
• Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Natural Gas
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 25 May 24

The US market closed mixed. While the Dow and Russell closed lower, S&P and Nasdaq closed at historic highs.
The Dow closed with an outside day on the weekly chart.

While BDI and CDFI continued to close lower, Harpex and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index closed higher with an inside day on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• US GDP
• China Manufacturing PMI

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884

Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,338, 5,574

Potential support around 5,103, 4,867, 4,632, 4,396

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 19,264

Potential support around 18,542, 17,819, 17,097, 16,374, 15,652

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

27 May, Mon

• UK and US on holiday
• No important data

28 May, Tue

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (May)

29 May, Wed

• 2000 German CPI (MoM) (May) 

30 May, Thu

• 1700 Europe Unemployment Rate (Apr)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories

31 May, Fri

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (May)  
• 2030 Canada GDP (YoY) (Q1)
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Apr)

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke the higher-low formation on the weekly chart and closed lower. It tested TLU3 support and closed above it.
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, 109.7
Support at TLU3, 103.6, TLD2, 102.3, TLU1, TLD1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 18 May 2024

BDI slumped from 2,129 (10 May) to 1,844 (17 May)

Harpex closed higher from 1,319 (10 May) to 1,372 (17 May)

CDFI closed lower from 1,340.84 (10 May) to 1,267.19 (17 May)

CCFI closed higher from 1,237.84 (10 May) to 1,311.85 (17 May)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar (1)
• Soybean Oil 
• Feeder Cattle
• Lumber (1)
• Cotton

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Palladium
• Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Natural Gas
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 18 May 24

The US market closed higher, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq closing at historic highs. On a daily chart, the Dow and Nasdaq's trends improved from neutral to uptrend, while Russell's trend turned from uptrend to Neutral.

While BDI and CDFI closed lower, Harpex and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index broke the higher-low formation on the weekly chart and closed lower. It tested TLU3 support and closed above it.

Watch out for

• New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• Speech by US Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 41,884

Potential support around 39,754, 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,338, 5,574

Potential support around 5,103, 4,867, 4,632, 4,396

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 19,264

Potential support around 18,542, 17,819, 17,097, 16,374, 15,652

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

20 May, Mon

• Canada and Switzerland on holiday
• 0330 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks 
• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate

21 May, Tue

• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1600 US Treasury Secretary Yellen Speaks  
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)
• 2030 Canada CPI (MoM) (Apr)

22 May, Wed

• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Apr)
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Apr)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

23 May, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2145 US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (May)  
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (May)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Apr)

24 May, Fri

• 1400 German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 1400 UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
• 2030 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr)
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index closed higher with an inside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, 109.7
Support at TLU3, 103.6, TLD2, 102.3, TLU1, TLD1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 11 May 2024

BDI continued to close higher after rebounded last week, from 1,876 (03 May) to 2,129 (10 May)

Harpex closed higher from 1,290 (03 May) to 1,319 (10 May)

CDFI rebounded and closed higher, from 1,231.77 (30 Apr) to 1,340.84 (10 May)

CCFI closed higher, from 1,193.64 (26 Apr) to 1,237.84 (10 May)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar (1)
• Soybean Oil 
• Feeder Cattle
• Lumber (1)
• Cotton

Neutral

• Palladium

Up Trend

• Corn
• Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Natural Gas

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 11 May 24

The US market closed higher. While the Dow and Nasdaq trends improved from a down to neutral, Russell's trend improved from a downtrend to an uptrend.

Harpex, BDI, CDFI and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index closed higher with an inside day on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• Multiple countries are reporting CPI data
• Speech by US Fed Chair Powell

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884

Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,338

Potential support around 5,103, 4,867, 4,632, 4,396

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 18,542

Potential support around 17,819, 17,097, 16,374, 15,652

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

13 May, Mon

• None

14 May, Tue

• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (Mar)
• 1400 German CPI (MoM) (Apr)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Apr)
• 2200 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks  

15 May, Wed

• Hong Kong on holiday
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Apr)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
• 2030 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

16 May, Thu

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)

17 May, Fri

• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr)
• 1000 China Chinese Unemployment Rate (Apr)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Apr)

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke consolidation support and closed lower.
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, 109.7
Support at TLU3, 103.6, TLD2, 102.3, TLU1, TLD1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 04 May 2024

BDI rebounded higher from 1,721 (26 Apr) to 1,876 (03 May)

Harpex closed higher from 1,252 (26 Apr) to 1,290 (03 May)

CDFI closed lower from 1,244.05 (26 Apr) to 1,231.77 (30 Apr)

CCFI data not available; stay at 1,193.64 (26 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybeans
• Sugar (1)
• Soybean Oil  (1)
• Feeder Cattle
• Lumber (1)

Neutral

• Soybeans
• Orange Juice
• Palladium

Up Trend

• Corn
• Wheat
• Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• Natural Gas

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 04 May 24

The US market closed higher while consolidating.
Russell broke out from consolidation resistance and closed around a strong resistance range.

While Harpex and BDI closed higher, CDFI closed lower, and CCFI was not updated.

The dollar index broke consolidation support and closed lower.

Watch out for

• Multiple countries are reporting Services PMI
• Interest Rate Decision by Australia and the UK

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884

Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,338

Potential support around 5,103, 4,867, 4,632, 4,396

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 18,542

Potential support around 17,819, 17,097, 16,374, 15,652

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

06 May

• Japan and UK on holiday
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Apr)
• 1555 German HCOB Services PMI (Apr)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Apr)

07 May, Tue

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)
• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (May)
• 1700 Europe Retail Sales (MoM)
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Apr)

08 May, Wed

• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

09 May, Thu

• Switzerland on holiday
• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Apr)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

10 May, Fri

• 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 1400 UK GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Apr)
• 2030 Canada Unemployment Rate (Apr)