Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index closed higher. It tested 103.6 resistance but was unable to hold.
Resistance at 103.6, 106.7, TLU2, TLU1, 109.7
Support at 102.3, TLD2, TLD1, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 27 Jan 2024

BDI closed lower from 1,503 (19 Jan) to 1,499 (26 Jan)

Harpex closed higher, from 945 (19 Jan) to 1,004 (26 Jan)

CDFI closed lower, from 1,064.04 (19 Jan) to 1,044.34 (26 Jan)

CCFI closed higher, from 1,287.49 (19 Jan) to 1,403.00(26 Jan)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn (1)
• Soybean Oil
• Soybean Meal (1)
• Soybeans (1)
• Sugar (1)
• Orange Juice (1)
• Palladium

Neutral

• Feeder Cattle (1)

Up Trend

• Wheat
• Copper (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

US Markets 27 Jan 24

The US market closed higher.

While BDI and CDFI closed lower, Harpex and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index closed higher. It tested 103.6 resistance but was unable to hold.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decisions by the US and UK.
• US Nonfarm Payrolls

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Dow
• Nasdaq
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884

Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,103

Potential support around 4,867, 4,632, 4,396, 4,161, 3,925

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 17,819, 18,542

Potential support around 17,097, 16,374, 15,652, 14,930

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

29 Jan, Mon

• No important data

30 Jan, Tue

• 1700 German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 1800 Europe GDP (QoQ) (Q4)   
• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jan)
• 2300 US JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)

31 Jan, Wed

• 0830 Australia CPI (Q4)
• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1500 German Retail Sales (Dec)
• 2100 German CPI (MoM) (Jan) 
• 2115 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan)
• 2245 US Chicago PMI (Jan)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

01 Feb, Thu

• 0300 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0330 FOMC Press Conference 
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jan)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2245 US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 2300 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

02 Feb, Fri

• 2130 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan)
• 2130 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
• 2130 US Unemployment Rate (Jan)

Dollar Index consolidating

The dollar index broke the lower high formation on the weekly chart and closed higher.
Resistance at 103.6, 106.7, TLU2, TLU1, 109.7
Support at 102.3, TLD2, TLD1, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 20 Jan 2024

BDI recovered from 1,460 (12 Jan) to 1,503 (19 Jan)

Harpex closed higher, from 910 (12 Jan) to 945 (19 Jan)

CDFI closed higher, from 1,054.01 (12 Jan) to 1,064.04 (19 Jan)

CCFI closed higher, from 1,140.31 (12 Jan) to 1,287.49 (19 Jan

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn (1)
• Soybean Oil
• Soybean Meal (1)
• Soybeans (1)
• Sugar (1)
• Orange Juice (1)
• Palladium
• Crude
• Feeder Cattle (1)

Neutral

• Cotton

Up Trend

• Wheat
• Copper

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

US Markets 20 Jan 24

The US market closed higher, except Russell closed lower.

BDI, Harpex, CCFI and CDFI closed higher.

The dollar index broke the lower high formation on the weekly chart and closed higher.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decisions by  Japan, Canada and Europe
• Services PMI and Manufacturing PMI  by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884

Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,632, 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 17,819, 18,542

Potential support around 17,097, 16,374, 15,652, 14,930

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

22 Jan, Mon

• No important data

23 Jan, Tue

• 1030 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1430 Japan BoJ Press Conference  

24 Jan, Wed

• 0545 New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q4)
• 1630 German HCOB Services PMI (Jan) 
• 1630 German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 
• 1700 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Jan) 
• 1700 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 
• 1730 UK S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI (Jan) 
• 1730 UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 
• 2245 US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Jan)  
• 2245 US S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)  
• 2300 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

25 Jan, Thu

• 0000 Canada BOC Press Conference
• 2115 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan)
• 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)  
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2145 Europe ECB Press Conference 
• 2300 US New Home Sales (Dec)

26 Jan, Fri

• Australia on holiday
• 2130 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec)

Dollar Index consolidating

The dollar index edged higher and closed with an inside day on the weekly chart. It tested TLD2 and closed on it.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6, 106.7, TLU2, TLU1, 109.7
Support at TLD2, TLD1, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 13 Jan 2024

BDI slumped from 2,110 (05 Jan) to 1,460 (12 Jan)

Harpex closed higher, from 853 (05 Jan) to 910 (12 Jan)

CDFI closed lower, from 1,219.15 (05 Jan) to 1,054.01 (12 Jan)

CCFI closed higher, from 936.83 (05 Jan) to 1,140.31 (12 Jan)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn (1)
• Soybean Oil
• Soybean Meal
• Soybeans (1)
• Sugar (1)
• Orange Juice (1)
• Palladium
• Crude
• Cotton
• Feeder Cattle (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Wheat
• Copper

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

US Markets 13 Jan 24

The US market broke the lower-high formation on the weekly chart and closed higher, except Russell broke the previous week's low and closed lower.

While BDI and CDFI closed lower, Harpex and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index edged higher and closed with an inside day on the weekly chart. 

Watch out for

• CPI and retail sales data by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Dow
• S&P
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 37,625, 39,754

Potential support around 35,495, 33,365, 31,236, 29,106

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,632, 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 16,374, 15,652, 14,930, 14,207

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

15 Jan, Mon

• 1700 German Full-Year GDP Growth (2023)

16 Jan, Tue

• 1500 German CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 1500 UK Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 1500 UK Claimant Count Change (Dec)
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jan)
• 2130 Canada CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jan)

17 Jan, Wed

• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)
• 1000 China Unemployment Rate (Dec)
• 1000 China Retail Sales YoY (Dec)
• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)

18 Jan, Thu

• 0830 Australia Unemployment Rate (Dec)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)
• 2130 US Building Permits (Dec) 

19 Jan, Fri

• 0000 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)
• 1500 UK Retail Sales MoM (Dec)
• 2130 Canada Retail Sales MoM (Dec)
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Dec)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan) 

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index broke the lower-high formation on the weekly chart and closed higher. It tested TLD2 resistance and pulled back.
Resistance at 102.3, TLD2, 103.6, 106.7, TLU2, TLU1, 109.7
Support at TLD1, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 06 Jan 2024

BDI closed at 2,110 (05 Jan)

Harpex closed at 853 (05 Jan)

CDFI closed at 1,219.15 (05 Jan)

CCFI closed at 936.83 (05 Jan)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn (1)
• Soybean Oil
• Soybean Meal
• Soybeans (1)
• Sugar (1)
• Orange Juice (1)
• Palladium
• Crude
• Cotton
• Feeder Cattle (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Wheat

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

US Markets 06 Jan 24

The US market broke the higher-low formation on the weekly chart and closed lower.

BDI closed at 2,110 (05 Jan)

Harpex closed at 853 (05 Jan)

CDFI closed at 1,219.15 (05 Jan)

CCFI closed at 936.83 (05 Jan)

The dollar index broke the lower-high formation on the weekly chart and closed higher. It tested TLD2 resistance and pulled back.

Watch out for

• CPI data by multiple countries
• US Note and Bond auction

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Dow
• S&P
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 37,625, 39,754

Potential support around 35,495, 33,365, 31,236, 29,106

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,632, 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 15,652, 14,930, 14,207, 13,485

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

08 Jan, Mon

• Japan on holiday
• 1530 Switzerland CPI (Dec)
• 1800 Europe Retail Sales YoY (Nov)

09 Jan, Tue

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales MoM (Nov)
• 1800 Europe Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 2130 US Balance of Trade (Nov)

10 Jan, Wed

• 0830 Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Nov)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

11 Jan, Thu

• 0200 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

12 Jan, Fri

• 0200 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 0930 China CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 0930 China PPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 1100 China Balance of Trade (Dec)
• 1500 UK GDP (MoM) (Nov)
• 1500 UK Balance of Trade (Dec)
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Dec)