Dollar Index continued to close higher

The dollar index continued to close higher. It broke the 103.6 resistance and TLD1 trend resistance.
Resistance at TLU2, 106.7, TLU1, 109.7
Support at 103.6, TLD1,102.3, 100.3, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 25 Aug 2023

BDI closed lower from 1,237 (18 Aug) to 1,080 (25 Aug)

Harpex closed lower from 1,098 (18 Aug) to 1,072 (25 Aug)

CDFI closed lower from 1,000.29 (18 Aug) to 955.54 (25 Aug)

CCFI closed higher from 889.52 (18 Aug) to 894.66 (25 Aug)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat
• Corn (1)
• Coffee (1)
• Gold
• Platinum
• Palladium (1)
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Soybeans

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Natural Gas

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Rough Rice

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

US Markets 26 Aug 2023

The US market closed mixed. While Dow and Russell closed lower, S&P and Nasdaq closed higher.

BDI, Harpex and CDFI closed lower, but CCFI went against the odds and closed higher.

The dollar index continued to close higher. It broke the 103.6 resistance and TLD1 trend resistance.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI by multiple countries
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• S&P

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754
Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 14,207, 13,485, 12,762

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

28 Aug, Mon

• UK on holiday
• No important data

29 Aug, Tue

• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Aug)
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Jul)

30 Aug, Wed

• 2000 German CPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

31 Aug, Thu

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1400 German Retail Sales YoY (Jul)
• 1430 Switzerland Retail Sales YoY (Jul)
• 1555 German Unemployment Rate (Jul)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Aug)  
• 1700 Europe Unemployment Rate (Jul)
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

01 Sep, Fri

• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1555 German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1630 UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 2030 Canada GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
• 2030 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Aug)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Aug)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index continued to close higher. It tested TLD1  trend resistance and closed below.
Resistance at TLD1, 103.6, TLU2, TLU1
Support at 102.3, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7, 97.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 19 Aug 2023

BDI closed higher from 1,129 (11 Aug) to 1,237 (18 Aug)

Harpex closed lower from 1,106 (11 Aug) to 1,098 (18 Aug)

CDFI closed higher from 960.65 (11 Aug) to 1,000.29 (18 Aug)

CCFI closed higher from 874.58 (11 Aug) to 889.52 (18 Aug)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn (1)
• Coffee 
• Gold
• Platinum
• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• Copper

Up Trend

• Soybeans

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Natural Gas

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Rough Rice

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

US Markets 19 Aug 2023

The US market closed lower.

BDI, CCFI and CDFI closed higher, while Harpex closed lower.

The dollar index continued to close higher. It tested TLD1  trend resistance and closed below.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI by multiple countries
• 3-day Jackson Hole Symposium
• Speech by Fed Chair Powell

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754
Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 14,207, 13,485, 12,762

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

21 Aug, Mon

• No important data

22 Aug, Tue

• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Jul)

23 Aug, Wed

• 1530 German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 
• 1630 UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 
• 2000 US Existing Home Sales (Jul)
• 2030 Canada Retail Sales MoM (Jun)
• 2145 US S&P Global US Services PMI (Aug)  
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Jul)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

24 Aug, Thu

• 0800 US Jackson Hole Symposium
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul)

25 Aug, Fri

• 0800 US Jackson Hole Symposium
• 1400 German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug)
• 2205 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks

26 Aug, Sat

• 0300 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speech
• 0800 US Jackson Hole Symposium

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index continued to close higher for four consecutive weeks. It tested 102.3 resistance and closed above it.
Resistance at TLD1, 103.6, TLU2, TLU1
Support at 102.3, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7, 97.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 12 Aug 2023

BDI closed lower from 1,136 (04 Aug) to 1,129 (11 Aug)

Harpex closed lower from 1,109 (04 Aug) to 1,106 (11 Aug)

CDFI closed higher from 954.15 (04 Aug) to 960.65 (11 Aug)

CCFI closed higher from 864.39 (04 Aug) to 874.58 (11 Aug)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Coffee 
• Gold
• Platinum
• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Copper
• Soybeans

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• US Cocoa
• Natural Gas

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Rough Rice

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

US Markets 12 Aug 2023

The US market closed lower, except the Dow closed higher.

CCFI and CDFI closed higher; in contrast, BDI and Harpex closed lower.

The dollar index continued to close higher for four consecutive weeks. It tested 102.3 resistance and closed above it.

Watch out for

• CPI data by multiple countries
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754
Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652, 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

14 Aug, Mon

• No important data

15 Aug, Tue

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 
• 1000 China Retail Sales YoY (Jul)
• 1000 China Industrial Production YoY (Jul)
• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (Jun)
• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (Jul)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 Canada CPI (MoM) (Jul)

16 Aug, Wed

• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Jul)
• 1700 Europe Employment Change YoY (Q2) 
• 2030 US Building Permits (Jul)  
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

17 Aug, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes  
• 0930 Australia Unemployment Rate (Jul)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)

18 Aug, Fri

• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jul)

Dollar Index continues to close higher

The dollar index continues to close higher. It tested 102.3 resistance, failed to hold and closed below the resistance.
Resistance at 102.3, TLD1, 103.6, TLU2, TLU1
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7, 97.3, 96.3, 95.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 05 Aug 2023

BDI closed higher from 1,110 (28 Jul) to 1,136 (04 Aug)

Harpex closed lower from 1,112 (28 Jul) to 1,109 (04 Aug)

CDFI closed higher from 923.57 (28 Jul) to 954.15 (04 Aug)

CCFI rebounded from 863.37 (28 Jul) to 864.39 (04 Aug)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Coffee 
• Gold
• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• US Cocoa
• Natural Gas

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Rough Rice

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

US Markets 05 Aug 2023

The US market broke lhf (lower high formation) and closed lower on the weekly chart. Dow, Nasdaq and Russell closed with an outside day on the weekly chart.

While BDI, CCFI and CDFI closed higher, Harpex closed lower.

The dollar index continues to close higher. It tested 102.3 resistance, failed to hold and closed below the resistance.

Watch out for

• CPI data by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754
Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652, 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

07 Aug, Mon

• Canada on holiday

08 Aug, Tue

• 1400 German CPI (MoM) (Jul)

09 Aug, Wed

• 0930 China CPI (MoM) (Jul)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

10 Aug, Thu

• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

11 Aug, Fri

• Japan on Holiday
• 1400 UK GDP (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Jul)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug)