Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index broke pdl (previous day's low) on the weekly chart and reversed to close higher.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6, TLU2, TLU1, 106.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 24 Jun 2023

BDI continues to close higher, from 1,076 (16 Jun) to 1,240 (23 Jun)

Harpex edged lower from 1,238 (16 Jun) to 1,235 (23 Jun)

CDFI closed lower from 981.23 (16 Jun) to 976.24 (21 Jun)

CCFI closed lower from 926.63 (16 Jun) to 919.63 (21 Jun)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybeans 
• Copper
• Gold
• Palladium (1)
• Silver
• Gasoline

Neutral

• Wheat

Up Trend

• Cotton

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Markets 24 Jun 2023

The US market closed lower. While Dow and Russell broke hlf (higher low formation) on the weekly chart, S&P and Nasdaq closed with an inside day.

While BDI closed higher, Harpex, CDFI and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke pdl (previous day's low) on the weekly chart and reversed to close higher.

Watch out for

• Speech by Fed Chair Powell
• ECB Forum on Central Banking
• CPI and GDP data by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754
Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097

Potential support around 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,040

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,259

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

26 Jun, Mon

• 0800 Europe ECB Forum on Central Banking
• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate (Jun)

27 Jun, Tue

• 0800 Europe ECB Forum on Central Banking
• 2000 US Building Permits
• 2030 Canada Inflation Rate YoY (May)
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (May)

28 Jun, Wed

• 0800 Europe ECB Forum on Central Banking
• 2130 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

29 Jun, Thu

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales MoM (May) 
• 1430 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
• 2000 German CPI (MoM) (Jun) 
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May)

30 Jun, Fri

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1400 UK GDP (YoY) (Q1)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)

Dollar Index broke support

The dollar index broke and closed below support, 102.3.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6, TLU2, TLU1, 106.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 17 Jun 2023

BDI closed higher after last week's rebound from 1,055 (09 Jun) to 1,076 (16 Jun)

Harpex edged lower from 1,240 (09 Jun) to 1,238 (16 Jun)

CDFI closed higher after last week's rebound from 968.67 (09 Jun) to 981.23 (16 Jun)

CCFI closed higher from 921.48 (09 Jun) to 926.63 (16 Jun)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat (1)
• Soybeans (1)
• Copper
• Gold
• Palladium (1)
• Gasoline
• Heating Oil

Neutral

• Soybean Oil
• Silver

Up Trend

• Cotton

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Cocoa
• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Markets 17 Jun 2023

The US market closed higher. Russell closed on the weekly chart with a -roc (closing price < opening price).

BDI, CDFI and CCFI closed higher, while Harpex closed lower.

The dollar index broke and closed below support, 102.3.

Watch out for

• Short trading week for China
• Fed Chair Powell Testifies
• Switzerland and UK Interest Rate Decision 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754
Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652, 16,374, 17,097

Potential support around 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,040

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,259

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

19 Jun, Mon

• US on holiday
• No important data

20 Jun, Tue

• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 2030 US Building Permits (May) 

21 Jun, Wed

• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (May)
• 2030 Canada Retail Sales YoY (Apr)
• 2200 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies

22 Jun, Thu

• Hong Kong and China on holiday
• 1530 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q2)
• 1600 Switzerland SNB Press Conference
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision
• 2000 UK BOE Inflation Letter
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (May)
• 2200 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies
• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories

23 Jun, Fri

• China on holiday
• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (May)
• 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)  
• 1600 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Jun)  
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI  
• 2145 US Services PMI (Jun) 

Dollar Index closed lower.

The dollar index closed lower at 103.5, slightly below 103.6 support.
Resistance at 103.6, TLU2, TLU1, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 102.3, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 10 Jun 2023

BDI rebounded from 979 (02 Jun) to 1,055 (09 Jun)

Harpex remained at 1,240 (09 Jun)

CDFI rebounded from 918.56 (02 Jun) to 968.67 (09 Jun)

CCFI closed lower from 930.97 (02 Jun) to 921.48 (09 Jun)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Copper
• Gold
• Palladium (1)
• Wheat (1)
• Soybean Oil
• Soybeans (1)
• Corn

Neutral

• Gasoline (1)

Up Trend

• Cotton
• Silver

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Cocoa
• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Markets 10 Jun 2023

The US market closed higher. Dow, S&P and Nasdaq closed with a small roc.

While BDI and CDFI rebounded, Harpex remained the same; and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index closed lower at 103.5, slightly below 103.6 support.

Watch out for

• Interest Rate Decision by US, Europe and Japan
• Multiple countries reporting CPI 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754
Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632, 4,867

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,930, 15,652, 16,374

Potential support around 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,259

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

12 Jun, Mon

• Australia on holiday
• No important data

13 Jun, Tue

• 1400 German CPI (MoM) (May)
• 1400 UK Employment Change (Mar)
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jun)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (May) 

14 Jun, Wed

• 1400 UK GDP (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (May)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

15 Jun, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Statement
• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 0645 New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 0750 Japan Balance of Trade (May)
• 0930 Australia Employment Change (May)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (May)
• 2015 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Jun)
• 2015 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2045 Europe ECB Press Conference  

16 Jun, Fri

• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1430 Japan BoJ Press Conference  
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (May)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index tested 103.6 support, broke pwh (previous week's high) and reversed to close lower, but still above 103.6 support. 
Resistance at TLU2, TLU1, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 103.6, 102.3, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 03 Jun 2023

BDI slumped again, from 1,172 (26 May) to 979 (02 Jun)

Harpex edged higher from 1,238 (26 May) to 1,240 (02 Jun)

CDFI closed lower from 985.38 (26 May) to 918.56 (02 Jun)

CCFI closed lower from 938.74 (26 May) to 930.97 (02 Jun)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Copper (1)
• Wheat (1)
• Soybean Oil (1)
• Soybeans (1)
• Corn
• Heating Oil

Neutral

• Gasoline (1)
• Palladium (1)
• Gold

Up Trend

• Cotton
• Silver

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Cocoa
• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Markets 03 Jun 2023

The US market closed higher. While S&P and Nasdaq are testing  Aug 2023 high, Russell broke two months of consolidation resistance and closed above.

BDI, CCFI and CDFI closed lower, while Harpex edged higher.

The dollar index tested 103.6 support, broke pwh (previous week's high) and reversed to close lower, but still above 103.6 support.

Watch out for

• Interest Rate Decision by Australia and Canada
• Multiple countries reporting Balance of Trade and Services PMI

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow
• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754
Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632, 4,867

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,930, 15,652, 16,374

Potential support around 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,259

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

05 Jun, Mon

• New Zealand on holiday
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (May)
• 1555 German S&P Global Services PMI (May)
• 1600 Europe S&P Global Services PMI (May)
• 1630 UK Services PMI (May)
• 2145 US Services PMI (May)
• 2200 US ISM Services PMI

06 Jun, Tue

• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision
• 1700 Europe Retail Sales MoM (Apr)
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (May)

07 Jun, Wed

• 0720 Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech 
• 0930 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 1100 China Balance of Trade (May)
• 2030 US Balance of Trade (Apr)
• 2200 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories

08 Jun, Thu

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 0930 Australia Balance of Trade (Apr)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

09 Jun, Fri

• 0930 China CPI (MoM) (May)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (May)