Dollar Index broke strong trend resistance

The dollar index broke and closed above strong trend resistance.
Resistance at 117.5, 120.18
Support at 112.6, TLD1, TLU3, 109.7, 106.7

Dollar Index Long-Term Trend Resistance

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 24 Sep 2022

BDI closed higher from 1,553 (16 Sep) to 1,816 (23 Sep)

Harpex closed lower from 3,095 (16 Sep) to 2,576 (23 Sep)

CDFI closed higher from 1,254.32 (16 Sep) to 1,271.98 (23 Sep)

CCFI closed lower from 2,609.09 (16 Sep) to 2,475.97 (23 Sep)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold (1)
• Sugar
• Lumber
• Gasoline (1)

Neutral

• Silver
• Wheat
• Cocoa
• Soybeans

Up Trend

• Platinum
• Copper
• Palladium
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Market 24 Sep 2022

US market closed lower. S&P, Nasdaq and Russell tested Jun's low while Dow broke and closed below Jun's low.

Harpex and CCFI closed lower, while BDI and CDFI closed higher.

The Dollar Index broke strong trend resistance.

Watch out for

• Speech by Japan BoJ Kuroda, New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr, Europe ECB President Lagarde, and Europe ECB Guindos.
• GDP by multiple countries.
• China Manufacturing PMI 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Russell

Neutral 

• S&P
• Nasdaq

DT 

• Dow

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 31,236, 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396, 4,632, 4,867

Potential support around 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,762, 13,485, 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,779, 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

26 Sep, Mon

• 1330 Japan BoJ Kuroda Speech
• 1400 German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1500 Europe ECB Guindos Speech 
• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Sep)
• 2100 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks

27 Sep, Tue

• 1930 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Aug)

28 Sep, Wed

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 1515 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks 
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance (Aug) 
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

29 Sep, Thu

• 1600 Europe ECB Guindos Speech 
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Jul)
• 2100 New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks

30 Sep, Fri

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 1400 UK GDP (QoQ)
• 1555 German Unemployment Change (Sep)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Aug)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index broke hlf (higher low formation) and recovered to close higher on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 109.7, TLU3, TLD1, 112.6
Support at 106.7, TLU2, 103.6, 102.3, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 17 Sep 2022

BDI closed higher from 1,213 (09 Sep) to 1,553 (16 Sep)

Harpex closed lower from 3,745 (09 Sep) to 3,095 (16 Sep)

CDFI closed higher from 1,140.12 (09 Sep) to 1,254.32 (16 Sep)

CCFI closed lower from 2,722.77 (09 Sep) to 2,609.09 (16 Sep)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold (1)
• Silver (1)
• Sugar
• Lumber
• Gasoline

Neutral

• Platinum
• Copper
• Wheat
• Cocoa
• Soybeans

Up Trend

• Palladium
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Market 17 Sep 2022

US market closed lower. Dow, S&P and Nasdaq closed with an outside day on the weekly chart.

Harpex and CCFI closed lower, while BDI and CDFI closed higher.

The dollar index closed higher.

Watch out for

• Speech by RBNZ Gov Orr, ECB Guindos, ECB President Lagarde, Fed Chair Powell.
• Interest rate decisions from the US, Japan, UK and Switzerland.
• Manufacturing PMI by multiple countries.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Russell

Neutral 

• Dow
• S&P (1)
• Nasdaq

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 31,236, 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396, 4,632, 4,867

Potential support around 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,762, 13,485, 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 11,318, 10,856, 10,595, 9,873

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,779, 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

19 Sep, Mon

• Japan and UK holiday
• 1100 New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
• 1700 Europe ECB Guindos Speech 

20 Sep, Tue

• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (Aug)
• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 2030 US Building Permits (Aug)
• 2030 Canada Inflation Rate YoY (Aug)

21 Sep, Wed

• 0100 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 1500 Europe ECB Guindos Speech 
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Aug)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

22 Sep, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Economic Projections
• 0200 US FOMC Statement  
• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1430 Japan BoJ Press Conference  
• 1530 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q3)
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

23 Sep, Fri

• Japan Holiday
• 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 
• 1600 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
• 2145 US Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 

24 Sep, Sat

• 0200 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks 

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke pwh (previous week high) and reversed to close lower.
Resistance at 109.7, TLU3, TLD1, 112.6
Support at 106.7, TLU2, 103.6, 102.3, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 10 Sep 2022

BDI closed higher from 1,086 (02 Sep) to 1,213 (09 Sep)

Harpex closed lower from 4,044 (02 Sep) to 3,745 (09 Sep)

CDFI closed lower from 1,145.68 (02 Sep) to 1,140.12 (09 Sep)

CCFI closed lower from 2,830.11 (02 Sep) to 2,722.77 (09 Sep)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Platinum (1)
• Gold (1)
• Silver (1)
• Copper
• Sugar
• Wheat
• Cocoa
• Lumber (1)
• Gasoline

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Palladium
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Natural Gas

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Market 10 Sep 2022

US market broke pwl (previous week low) and recovered to close higher.  S&P and Nasdaq closed with an outside day on the weekly chart.

Harpex, CCFI and CDFI closed lower, while BDI closed higher.

The dollar index closed lower.

Watch out for

• Speech by Europe ECB Guindos
• CPI by multiple countries
• UK Interest Rate Decision

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow
• S&P (1)
• Russell

Neutral 

• Nobe

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396, 4,632, 4,867

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,762, 13,485, 14,207, 14,930, 15,652

Potential support around 12,040, 11,318, 10,856

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

12 Sep, Mon

• Hong Kong and China holiday
• 1400 UK GDP (MoM)
• 1400 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jul)
• 1530 Europe ECB Guindos Speech

13 Sep, Tue

• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (Jul)
• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (Aug)
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 US CPI (YoY) (Aug)

14 Sep, Wed

• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

15 Sep, Thu

• 0645 New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 0750 Japan Balance of Trade (Aug)
• 0930 Australia Employment Change (Aug)
• 1715 Europe ECB Guindos Speech
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
• 1900 UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)

16 Sep, Fri

• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Aug)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index continues to close higher.  TLD1 is the long-term trend resistance.
Resistance at 109.7, TLD1, 112.6
Support at 106.7, 103.6, TLU2, 102.3, 100.3

Dollar Index Long-Term Trend Resistance

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 03 Sep 2022

BDI closed edging higher from 1,082 (26 Aug) to 1,086 (02 Sep)

Harpex closed lower from 4,163 (26 Aug) to 4,044 (02 Sep)

CDFI closed lower from 1,152.97 (26 Aug) to 1,145.68 (02 Sep)

CCFI closed lower from 2,904.00 (26 Aug) to 2,830.11 (02 Sep)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Platinum (1)
• Gold (1)
• Silver (1)
• Copper
• Sugar
• Wheat
• Lumber (1)
• Gasoline

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Palladium
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Natural Gas

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Market 03 Sep 2022

US market continues to close lower.

Harpex, CCFI and CDFI closed lower, while BDI edged higher.

The dollar index closed higher.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decisions by Australia, Canada, and Europe
• Speech by Fed Chair Powell 
• GDP data from multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow
• S&P (1)
• Russell

Neutral 

• Nobe

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396, 4,632, 4,867

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,762, 13,485, 14,207, 14,930, 15,652

Potential support around 12,040, 11,318, 10,856

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

05 Sep, Mon

• Canada and US holiday
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Aug)
• 1600 Europe Services PMI (Aug)
• 1630 UK Services PMI (Aug)
• 1700 Europe Retail Sales YoY (Jul)

06 Sep, Tue

• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
• 1230 Australia RBA Rate Statement
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

07 Sep, Wed

• 0930 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 1100 China Balance of Trade (Aug)
• 1700 Europe GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  
• 2030 US Balance of Trade (Jul)
• 2200 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Aug)
• 2215 UK BoE MPC Treasury Committee Hearings

08 Sep, Thu

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 0930 Australia Balance of Trade (Jul)
• 2015 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
• 2015 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement  
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2045 Europe ECB Press Conference  
• 2110 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks 
• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories

09 Sep, Fri

• 0930 China CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 0930 China PPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Aug)