Dollar Index broke consolidation support

The dollar index broke consolidation support and closed lower.
Resistance at 106.7, TLD1, 109.7, 112.6
Support at 103.6, TLU2, 102.3, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 30 Jul 2022

BDI closed lower from 2,146 (22 Jul) to 1,895 (29 Jul)

Harpex closed lower from 4,455 (15 Jul) to 4,449 (29 Jul).
The data provider resumed providing data.

CDFI closed lower from 1,513.45 (22 Jul) to 1,404.65 (29 Jul)

CCFI closed lower from 3,229.72 (22 Jul) to 3,188.61 (29 Jul)

COT     

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Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Platinum (1)
• Gold (1)
• Silver (1)
• Copper
• Cocoa
• Sugar
• Wheat
• Soybean Oil
• Lumber (1)
• Gasoline (1)

Neutral

• Palladium (1)

Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Orange Juice

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Market 30 Jul 2022

US market closed higher around the recent resistance level.

BDI, Harpex, CCFI and CDFI closed lower. Harpex resumed providing data.

The dollar index broke consolidation support.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI data from multiple countries
• Australia and UK Interest rate decision
• Speech by UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks 
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Russell (1)

Neutral 

• Dow (1)
• S&P (1)

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207, 14,930, 15,652

Potential support around 12,762, 12,040, 11,318, 10,856, 10,595, 9,873

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

01 Aug, Mon

• Switzerland and Canada holiday.
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1400 German Retail Sales (Jun)
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1600 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1700 Europe Unemployment Rate (Jun)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

02 Aug, Tue

• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug)
• 1230 Australia RBA Rate Statement
• 2130 Canada Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)

03 Aug, Wed

• 0645 New Zeland Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2)
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales MoM (Jun)
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Jul)
• 1400 German Balance of Trade (Jun)
• 1700 Europe Retail Sales MoM (Jun)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

04 Aug, Thu

• 0930 Australia Balance of Trade (Jun)
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Aug)
• 1900 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks  
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Balance of Trade (Jun)
• 2030 Canada Balance of Trade (Jun)

05 Aug, Fri

• 0930 Australia RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Jul)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Jul)
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Jul)

07 Aug, Sun

• 1100 China Balance of Trade (Jul)

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke hlf (higher low formation) on the weekly chart and closed lower.
Resistance at 106.7, TLD1, 109.7, 112.6
Support at 103.6, TLU2, 102.3, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 23 Jul 2022

BDI closed lower from 2,150 (15 Jul) to 2,146 (22 Jul)

Harpex stopped providing data.

CDFI closed higher from 1,509.83 (15 Jul) to 1,513.45 (22 Jul)

CCFI closed lower from 3,276.85 (15 Jul) to 3,229.72 (22 Jul)

COT     

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Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)
• Platinum (1)
• Gold (1)
• Silver (1)
• Copper
• Cocoa
• Sugar
• Wheat
• Soybean Oil
• Lumber
• Gasoline (1)

Neutral

• Coffee

Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Orange Juice

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Market 23 Jul 2022

US market broke the recent consolidation resistance level and lhf (lower high formation) on the weekly chart and closed higher. The daily trend for Dow, Nasdaq and Russell has turned from a downtrend to neutral on the daily chart.

BDI and CCFI closed lower while CDFI closed higher.  Harpex stopped providing data.

The dollar index closed lower.

Watch out for

• CPI and GDP data from multiple countries
• US Fed Interest Rate Decision 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow (1)
• S&P (1)
• Russell (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,762, 13,485, 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 12,040, 11,318, 10,856, 10,595, 9,873

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

25 Jul, Mon

• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jul)

26 Jul, Tue

• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Jun)

27 Jul, Wed

• 0930 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q2)
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance (Jun) 
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

28 Jul, Thu

• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 2000 German Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

29 Jul, Fri

• 1555 German Unemployment Change (Jul)
• 1600 German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jul)
• 1700 Europe GDP Growth Rate (Q2) 
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (May)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)

31 Jul, Sun

• 0930 China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 0930 China NBS Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index broke out and closed higher.
Resistance at TLD1, 109.7, 112.6
Support at 106.7, 103.6, TLU2, 102.3, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 16 Jul 2022

BDI closed higher from 2,067 (08 Jul) to 2,150 (15 Jul)

Harpex closed lower from 4,461 (08 Jul) to 4,455 (15 Jul)

CDFI closed lower from 1,566.99 (08 Jul) to 1,509.83 (15 Jul)

CCFI closed higher from 3,232.18 (08 Jul) to 3,276.85 (15 Jul)

COT     

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Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)
• Platinum (1)
• Gold (1)
• Silver (1)
• Copper
• Cocoa
• Sugar
• Wheat
• Soybean Oil
• Lumber

Neutral

• Gasoline (1)

Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Orange Juice

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Market 16 Jul 2022

US market closed lower. Dow and S&P broke pwl (previous week low) and trimmed most of the losses before closing with a small roc while Nasdaq and Russell closed with an inside day on the weekly chart. US market is consolidating.

BDI and CCFI closed higher while CDFI and Harpex closed lower.

The dollar index continues to close higher.

Watch out for

• CPI data from multiple countries
• Interest rate decisions by Japan and Europe

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow (1)
• S&P (1)
• Russell (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,762, 13,485, 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 11,318, 10,856, 10,595, 9,873

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,779, 1,910, 2,040

Potential support around 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

18 Jul, Mon

• Japan holiday
• 0645 New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q2)

19 Jul, Tue

• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (May)
• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (Jun)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Jun)

20 Jul, Wed

• 0740 Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech
• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 Canada CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Jun)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

21 Jul, Thu

• 1030 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 2015 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement 
• 2015 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)
• 2045 Europe ECB Press Conference  

22 Jul, Fri

• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (Jun)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)  
• 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 
• 1600 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI  
• 1630 UK Services PMI  
• 2030 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (May)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index broke out and closed higher.
Resistance at TLD1, 109.7, 112.6
Support at 106.7, 103.6, TLU2, 102.3, 100.3

Dollar Index Strong Trend Resistance

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 09 Jul 2022

BDI closed lower from 2,240 (01 Jul) to 2,067 (08 Jul)

Harpex closed lower from 4,467 (01 Jul) to 4,461 (08 Jul)

CDFI closed lower from 1,604.43 (01 Jul) to 1,566.99 (08 Jul)

CCFI closed lower from 3,271.07 (01 Jul) to 3,232.18 (08 Jul)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)
• Platinum
• Gold (1)
• Silver (1)
• Copper
• Cocoa
• Suhar
• Wheat
• Soybean Oil
• Lumber (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline (1)
• Feeder Cattle (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Orange Juice

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Market 09 Jul 2022

US market closed higher.  Dow and Russell broke pwl (previous week low) and recovered while S&P and Nasdaq closed with an inside day on the weekly chart.

BDI, CDFI, Harpex, and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke out and closed higher.

Watch out for

• Interest Rate Decision by New Zealand and Canada
• UK and China GDP 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow (1)
• S&P
• Russell (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,762, 13,485, 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 12,040, 11,318, 10,856, 10,595, 9,873

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,779, 1,910, 2,040

Potential support around 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

11 Jul, Mon

• No important data

12 Jul, Tue

• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul)

13 Jul, Wed

• 0100 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1100 China Balance of Trade (Jun)
• 1400 UK GDP (May)
• 1400 UK Goods Trade Balance (May)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2200 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report
• 2200 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2200 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement  
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 2300 Canada BoC Press Conference

14 Jul, Thu

• 0930 Australia Employment Change (Jun)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Jun)

15 Jul, Fri

• 1000 China GDP (Q2)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul) 

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index consolidates and closes higher with an outside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7
Support at 103.66, TLU2, 102.3, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 02 Jul 2022

BDI closed lower from 2,331 (24 Jun) to 2,240 (01 Jul)

Harpex rclosed higher from 4,461 (24 Jun) to 4,467 (01 Jul) 

CDFI closed lower from 1,632.96 (24 Jun) to 1,604.43 (01 Jul) 

CCFI closed higher from 3,244.78 (24 Jun) to 3.271.07 (01 Jul)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)
• Gold (1)
• Silver (1)
• Copper
• Cocoa
• Soybean Oil
• Lumber (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline  (1)
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Orange Juice

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Market 02 Jul 2022

US market broke pwh (previous week high) and reversed to close lower.

BDI and CDFI closed lower while Harpex and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index consolidates and closes higher with an outside day on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• Balance of Trade from multiple countries
• Australia Interest Rate Decision 
• Speeches by ECB Guindos, BoE Gov Bailey and ECB President Lagarde
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• US Nonfarm Payrolls
• China Inflation Rate

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow (1)
• S&P
• Russell (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 31,236, 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,762, 13,485, 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 11,318, 10,856, 10,595, 9,873

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,779, 1,910, 2,040

Potential support around 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

04 Jul, Mon

• US holiday
• 1400 German Balance of Trade (May)
• 2130 Canada Manufacturing PMI
• 2300 Europe ECB Guindos Speech

05 Jul, Tue

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Jun)
• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
• 1600 Europe Services PMI (Jun)
• 1630 UK Services PMI (Jun)
• 1800 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

06 Jul, Wed

• 1700 Europe Retail Sales YoY (May)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (May)

07 Jul, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes  
• 0930 Australia Balance of Trade (May)
• 1930 Europe FOMC Meeting Minutes 
• 2015 US ADP Employment Change (Jun)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Balance of Trade (May)
• 2030 Canada Balance of Trade (May)
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Jun)
• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories

08 Jul, Fri

• 1955 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Jun)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Jun)

09 Jul, Sat 

• 0930 China Inflation Rate YoY (Jun)