Dollar Index failed at 93.3 resistance level

The dollar index broke pwh (previous week high), tested 93.3 resistance level and closed below it.
Resistance at 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 92.0, 90.6, TLD1, TLD2, 88.88, 86.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 25 Sep 2021

BDI closed higher from 4,275 (17 Sep) to 4,644 (23 Sep)

Harpex closed higher from 3,822.87 (10 Sep) to 3,928.73 (17 Sep)

CDFI closed higher from 1,879.55 (17 Sep) to 2,029.19 (24 Sep)

CCFI closed higher from 3,156.86 (17 Sep) to 3,235.26 (24 Sep)

COT 
Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gasoline
• Gold
• Platinum
• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• Feeder Cattle

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Orange Juice

Neutral

• Heating Oil

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 25 Sep 2021

US market broke pwl (previous week low) and recovered to close higher with a +roc (close price > open price).

Harpex, BDI, CCFI, and CDFI closed higher.

Dollar Index failed at 93.3 resistance level

Watch out for

• Speeches by ECB President Lagarde, Fed Chair Powell and BoE Gov Bailey.
• Manufacturing PMI data from various countries.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652, 16,374

Potential support around 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

27 Sep, Mon

• 1945 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug)

28 Sep, Tue

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 
• 2000 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks 
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)
• 2200 US Fed Chair Powell Testimony

29 Sep, Wed

• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 2245 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks  
• 2345 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 2345 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks 

30 Sep, Thu

• 0900 China Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 1400 UK GDP (Q2)
• 1555 German Unemployment Change (Sep)
• 1700 Europe Unemployment Rate (Aug)
• 2030 US GDP (Q2)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

01 Oct, Fri

• 0700 Australia Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3)
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q3)
• 1400 German Retail Sales
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 1600 Europe Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Sep) 
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Jul)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep)

Dollar Index may test 93.3 level again

The dollar index broke pwh (previous week high) on the weekly chart and closed higher.  The dollar index may test the 93.3 resistance level again.
Resistance at 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 92.0, 90.6, TLD1, TLD2, 88.88, 86.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 18 Sep 2021

BDI closed higher from 3,864 (09 Sep) to 4,275 (17 Sep)

Harpex closed higher from 3,694.64 (03 Sep) to 3,822.87 (10 Sep)

CDFI closed higher from 1,749.5 (10 Sep)  to 1,879.55 (17 Sep)

CCFI closed lower from 3,157.6 (10 Sep) to 3,156.86 (17 Sep)

COT 
Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Platinum
• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• Gasoline
• Gold
• Feeder Cattle

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Orange Juice
• Cotton

Neutral

• Heating Oil

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 18 Sep 2021

US market broke pwl (previous week low) on the weekly chart and closed lower except for Russell closed slightly higher with a -roc (close price < open price).

Harpex, BDI, and CDFI closed higher, while CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index may test the 93.3 resistance level again.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decisions from China, Japan, Switzerland, UK and the US.
• Statement from the various central banks.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652, 16,374

Potential support around 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

20 Sep, Mon

• Japan and China holiday
• No important data

21 Sep, Tue

• China holiday
• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 2030 US Core Building Permits (Aug)

22 Sep, Wed

• Hong Kong Holiday
• 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest rate decision and Press Conference  
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Aug)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

23 Sep, Thu

• Japan Holiday
• 0200 US FOMC Economic Projections 
• 0200 US FOMC Statement  
• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 1530 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q3)
• 1530 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment  
• 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Sep)  
• 1600 Europe Markit Services PMI
• 1600 Europe Markit Manufacturing PMI
• 1630 UK Composite PMI  
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI  
• 1630 UK Services PMI  
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)

24 Sep, Fri

• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate
• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Sep)
• 2200 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Aug)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index broke lhf (lower high formation) on the weekly chart. It gave up some of the gains before closing.
Resistance at 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 92.0, 90.6, TLD1, TLD2, 88.88, 86.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 11 Sep 2021

BDI closed lower from 3,944 (03 Sep) to 3,864 (09 Sep) 

Harpex closed higher from 3,599.22 (27 Aug) to 3,694.64 (03 Sep)

CDFI closed lower from 1,807.06 (03 Sep) to 1,749.5 (10 Sep) 

CCFI close higher from 3,097.58 (03 Sep) to 3,157.6 (10 Sep) 

COT 
Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• Gasoline

Up Trend

• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Orange Juice
• Cotton

Neutral

• Heating Oil

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 11 Sep 2021

US market broke hlf (higher low formation) on the weekly chart and closed lower.

Harpex and CCFI closed higher, whereas BDI and CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke lhf (lower high formation) and closed higher.

Watch out for

• China Industrial Production
• CPI and Retail Sales data and from various countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652, 16,374

Potential support around 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

13 Sep, Mon

• No important data

14 Sep, Tue

• 0930 Australia NAB Business Confidence (Aug)
• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (Aug)
• 1400 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jul)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Aug)

15 Sep, Wed

• 0800 Australia HIA New Home Sales MoM (Aug)
• 0830 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
• 1000 China Unemployment Rate
• 1000 China Retail Sales
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug)
• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

16 Sep, Thu

• 0645 New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 0750 Japan Balance of Trade
• 0930 Australia Employment Change (Aug)
• 2030 Canada ADP Employment Change (Aug)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)

17 Sep, Fri

• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep) 

Dollar Index closed at support level

The dollar index broke hlf (higher low formation) on the weekly chart, tested and closed on 92.0 support level.
Resistance at 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 92.0, 90.6, TLD1, TLD2, 88.88, 86.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 04 Sep 2021

BDI closed lower from 4,235 (26 Aug) to 3,944 (03 Sep)

Harpex closed higher from 3,560.46 (20 Aug) to 3,599.22 (27 Aug)

CDFI closed lower from 1,857.38 (27 Aug) to to 1,807.06 (03 Sep)

CCFI close higher from 3,079.04 (27 Aug) to 3,097.58 (03 Sep)

COT 
Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• Gasoline

Up Trend

• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Orange Juice
• Cotton

Neutral

• Heating Oil

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 04 Sep 2021

US market closed higher except Dow closed lower.
S&P and Nasdaq closed with a historic high. Russell continues to consolidate.

Harpex and CCFI closed higher, whereas BDI and CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index tested and closed on 92.0 support level.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decisions from Australia, Canada and Europe

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around  16,374

Potential support around 15,652, 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

06 Sep, Mon

• US, Canada Holiday
• 1630 UK Construction PMI (Aug)

07 Sep, Tue

• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
• 1230 Australia RBA Rate Statement
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep)

08 Sep, Wed

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Jul)
• 2200 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Aug)

09 Sep, Thu

• 0930 China Inflation Rate YoY (Aug)
• 1945 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Aug)
• 1945 Europe ECB Marginal Lending Facility
• 1945 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement 
• 1945 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Aug)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

10 Sep, Fri

• 1400 UK GDP
• 1400 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jul)
• 1400 UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Aug)