Dollar Index consolidating

On the weekly chart, the dollar index broke pwl (previous week low), recovered and closed higher.
Resistance at 92.0, TLD1, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 90.6, 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 27 Feb 2021

BDI closed higher from 1,698 (19 Feb) to 1,700 (25 Feb)

Harpex closed higher from 1,228.27 (12 Feb) to 1,262.26 (19 Feb)

CDFI close higher from 1,035.88 (19 Feb) to 1,046.46 (26 Feb)

CCFI closed lower from 2,071.71 (19 Feb) to 2,059.52 (26 Feb)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Natural Gas
• Gasoline
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Coffee
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 27 Feb 2021

On the weekly chart, the US market broke pwl (previous week low) and closed lower.

BDI, CDFI, and Harpex closed higher.
CCFI closed lower.

Dollar Index consolidating.

Watch out for 

• Manufacturing PMI data from various countries,
• RBA Interest Rate,
• ECB's President Lagarde speech,
• Fed's Chair Powell speech, 
• US NFP and unemployment rate.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 31,236, 33,365, 35,495

Potential support around 29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 28,195

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388, 3,219, 3,155

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

01 Mar, Mon

• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 1655 German Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 2100 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
• 2300 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

02 Mar, Tue

• 0010 Europe ECB's President Lagarde speech
• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
• 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement 
• 1655 German Unemployment Change (Feb)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Feb) 
• 2130 Canada GDP (MoM) (Dec)

03 Mar, Wed

• 0830 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 1730 UK Composite PMI (Feb)
• 1730 UK Services PMI (Feb)
• 2115 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb)
• 2130 Canada Building Permits (MoM)
• 2300 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

04 Mar, Thu

• 0415 New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks  
• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

05 Mar, Fri

• 0105 US Fed's Chair Powell speech
• 2130 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
• 2130 US Unemployment Rate (Feb)
• 2130 US Goods and Services Trade
• 2300 Canada Ivey PMI (Feb)

06 Mar, Sat

• 0300 US Federal Budget

Commodities Potential Trade - Follow up

Follow up from Commodities Potential Trade posting on 31 Jan 21

Rough Rice retraced, tested support and consolidating

Sugar continues to trade higher

Dollar Index consolidating

Dollar index trading within consolidating range.
Resistance at 90.6, 92.0, TLD1, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 20 Feb 2021

BDI closed higher from 1,339 (12 Feb) to 1,698 (19 Feb)

Harpex closed higher from 1,202.03 (05 Feb) to 1,228.27 (12 Feb)

CDFI close higher from 842.6 (10 Feb) to 1,035.88 (19 Feb)

CCFI closed higher from 2,061.51 (10 Feb) to 2,071.71 (19 Feb)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Natural Gas
• Gasoline
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Coffee
• Rough Rice
• Copper
• Platinum
• Heating Oil

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 20 Feb 2021

US market closed lower except for Dow closed higher.

BDI, CDFI, Harpex, and CCFI closed higher.

Dollar Index consolidating.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 28,195

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388, 3,219, 3,155

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

22 Feb, Mon

• 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Feb)
• 2000 UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson speech
• 2145 Europe ECB's President Lagarde speech

23 Feb, Tue

• Japan Holiday
• 0545 New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ)
• 1500 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)
• 1500 UK Claimant Count Change (Jan)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Feb)
• 2300 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies

24 Feb, Wed

• 0130 Canada BoC's Governor Macklem speech
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement  
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference  
• 1500 German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 2300 US New Home Sales (Jan)
• 2300 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies 
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

25 Feb, Thu

• 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan)
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)  
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2300 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jan)

26 Feb, Fri

• 2130 US Goods Trade Balance
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Dollar Index broke hlf

On the weekly chart, Dollar index broke hlf (higher low formation) and closed in the consolidation range after breaking out last week.
Resistance at 90.6, 92.0, TLD1, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 13 Feb 2021

BDI close slightly higher from 1,333 (05 Feb) to 1,339 (12 Feb)

Harpex closed higher from 1,154.32 (29 Jan) to 1,202.03 (05 Feb)

CDFI continues to close lower, from 855.28 (05 Feb) 842.6 (10 Feb)

CCFI closed higher from 2,060.26 (05 Feb) to 2,061.51 (10 Feb)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium
• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Coffee
• Rough Rice
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 13 Feb 2021

US market closed at a new historic high for another week.

CDFI closed lower while BDI, Harpex and CCFI closed higher.

Dollar Index retreat back to the consolidation range.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 28,195, 27,345, 26,635

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388, 3,219, 3,155

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

• US, Hong Kong, Canada, China Holiday
• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ)

16 Feb, Tue

• China Holiday
• 0800 Australia HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes 
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb)
• 1800 Europe Gross Domestic Product s.a.

17 Feb, Wed

• China Holiday
• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Jan)
• 2130 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)

18 Feb, Thu

• 0300 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Jan)
• 2030 Europe ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting  
• 2130 US Building Permits (Jan)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb)**
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

19 Feb, Fri

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 
• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 1700 Europe Markit PMI Composite  
• 1730 UK Services PMI  
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Jan)

Dollar Index broke out

Dollar index broke out and closed above the consolidation range.
Resistance at 92.0, TLD1, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 90.6, 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 06 Feb 2021

BDI continues to close lower, from 1,452 (28 Jan)to 1,333 (05 Feb)

Harpex closed higher from 1,112.87 (22 Jan) to 1,154.32 (29 Jan)

CDFI continues to close lower, from 866.09 (29 Jan) to 855.28 (05 Feb)

CCFI closed higher from 2,040.18 (29 Jan) to 2,060.26 (05 Feb)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium

Neutral

• Feeder Cattle

Up Trend

• Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 06 Feb 2021

US market closed st a new historic high.

BDI and CDFI closed lower while Harpex and CCFI closed higher.

Dollar Index broke out.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 31,236, 33,365

Potential support around  29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 28,195, 27,345, 26,635

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161

Potential support around 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388, 3,219, 3,155

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,207

Potential support around 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

08 Feb, Mon

• New Zealand Holiday
• 0750 Japan Current Account n.s.a.

09 Feb, Tue

• 2000 US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
• 2300 US JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)

10 Feb, Wed

• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 0930 China Consumer Price Index (YoY)
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference
• 1500 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

11 Feb, Thu

• Japan, China, Hong Kong, Singapore holiday
• 0100 UK BoE's Governor Bailey speech
• 0130 US federal budget
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

12 Feb, Fri

• Japan, China, Hong Kong, Singapore holiday
• 0000 US Fed Monetary Policy Report
• 1500 UK GDP (Q4)
• 1500 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Dec)
• 1500 UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index