Dollar Index consolidating

The dollar index tested and closed above the 96.3 resistance level.  The dollar index is consolidating.
Resistance at 97.3, 98.7
Support at 96.3, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 18 Dec 2021

BDI slumped from 3,272 (09 Dec) to 2,379 (17 Dec)

Harpex remained the same at 3,757 (17 Dec)

CDFI closed lower from 1,525.6 (10 Dec) to 1,294.45 (17 Dec)

CCFI closed higher from 3,238.35 (10 Dec) to 3,245.22 (17 Dec)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa 
• Palladium (1)
• Gasoline

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gold
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 18 Dec 2021

US market closed lower.
Dow and S&P broke pwh (previous week high) and reversed to close lower.  The third week that Nasdaq is consolidating.  Russell broke hif (higher low formation) on the weekly chart and recovered some losses closing at the consolidating support range.

CCFI closed higher, Harpex remained the same, while CDFI and BDI closed lower.

The dollar index is consolidating.

Watch out for

• China loan prime rate
• Australia RBA Meeting Minutes, Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
• Retail Sales and GDP data from multiple countries.

I will be taking a break, and this update will be the last for the Year 2021. 
The next update will resume on 08 Jan 2022.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 15,652, 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

20 Dec, Mon

• 0830 Australia Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
• 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate

21 Dec, Tue

• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes 
• 1500 German GfK Consumer Confidence
• 1730 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)

22 Dec, Wed

• 0750 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
• 1500 UK GDP (Q3)
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Dec)
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Nov)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

23 Dec, Thu

• 0801 UK GfK Consumer Confidence
• 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 Canada GDP (MoM) (Oct)
• 2300 US New Home Sales (Nov)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec)

24 Dec, Fri

• Some markets will close for the day, while some close early.
• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (Nov)

Dollar Index directionless

The dollar index closed with an inside day. 
The dollar index tested the 96.3 resistance level and failed to overcome it.  The dollar index is consolidating.
Resistance at 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 11 Dec 2021

BDI continues to close higher from 3,171 (03 Dec) to 3,272 (09 Dec)

Harpex closed higher from 3,751 (03 Dec) to 3,757 (10 Dec)

CDFI closed higher from 1,512.39(03 Dec) to 1,525.6 (10 Dec)

CCFI closed higher from 3,199.03 (03 Dec) to 3,238.35  (10 Dec)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa 
• Palladium (1)
• Gasoline

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 11 Dec 2021

US market closed higher.
Dow broke pwh (previous week high), S&P broke lhf (lower high formation), Nasdaq broke pwl (previous week low) and recovered while Russell broke pwh and retreated to trim gain.

Harpex, BDI, CDFI, and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index is directionless.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decisions by multiple countries (US, Switzerland, UK, Europe, Japan)
• Manufacturing PMI and Retail sales data by multiple countries.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 37,625

Potential support around 35,495, 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,867

Potential support around 4,632, 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 15,652, 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

13 Dec, Mon

• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4)
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q4)

14 Dec, Tue

• 1500 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Oct)
• 1500 UK Claimant Count Change (Nov)
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Nov)

15 Dec, Wed

• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov)
• 1000 China Retail Sales YoY (Nov)
• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

16 Dec, Thu

• 0300 US FOMC Economic Projections
• 0300 US FOMC Statement  
• 0300 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0330 US FOMC Press Conference 
• 0545 New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 0730 Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech 
• 0750 Japan Balance of Trade
• 0830 Australia Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 1630 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q4)
• 1630 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment  
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Dec)  
• 1700 Europe Composite PMI
• 1700 Europe Manufacturing PMI  
• 1700 Europe Services PMI  
• 1730 UK Composite PMI
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI  
• 1730 UK Services PMI  
• 1730 Switzerland SNB Press Conference  
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 2000 UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes  
• 2045 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Dec)
• 2045 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 2130 Canada ADP Employment Change
• 2130 US Building Permits (Nov)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)
• 2130 Europe ECB Press Conference 
• 2245 US Manufacturing PMI 

17 Dec, Fri

• 1030 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement  
• 1030 Japan BoJ Press Conference
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision  
• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Dec)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Nov)

Dollar Index closed slightly higher

The dollar index broke hlf (higher low formation), closed slightly higher with a -roc (closing price < opening price) on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 04 Dec 2021

BDI continues to close higher, from 2,767 (26 Nov) to 3,171 (03 Dec)

Harpex closed higher from 3,745 (26 Nov) to 3,751 (03 Dec)

CDFI closed higher from 1,407.02 (26 Nov) to 1,512.39(03 Dec)

CCFI closed lower from 3,199.98 (26 Nov) to 3,199.03 (03 Dec)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa (1)
• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• Gasoline (1)

Up Trend

• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 04 Dec 2021

US market continues to close lower. 
Russell closed around the recent consolidation support level. 

Harpex, BDI and CDFI closed higher while CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index closed slightly higher.

Watch out for

• Australia and Canada Interest Rate Decision 
• Speech by Europe ECB De Guindos and Australia RBA Gov Lowe
• China and US Inflation Rate

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 15,652, 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

06 Dec, Mon

• No important data

07 Dec, Tue

• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement  
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec)
• 1800 Europe Employment Change (Q3)
• 2130 Canada Balance of Trade (Oct)
• 2300 Canada Ivey PMI (Nov)

08 Dec, Wed

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1630 Europe ECB De Guindos Speech 
• 1930 Europe ECB De Guindos Speech 
• 2300 US JOLTs Job Openings (Oct)
• 2300 Canada BOC Press Conference 
• 2300 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

08 Dec, Thu

• 0600 Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech 
• 0930 China Inflation Rate YoY (Nov)
• 1500 German Balance of Trade (Oct)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

10 Dec, Fri

• 1500 UK GDP
• 1500 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 US Inflation Rate YoY (Nov)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec) 

Dollar Index closed edge higher

The dollar index tested 96.3 resistance level, reversed to close below it but slightly higher than the previous week closing.
Resistance at 96.3, 97.3, 98.7, 99.8
Support at 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6

COT for Dollar Index

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed-release date due to a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Market 27 Nov 2021

US market closed lower. 
Dow and Russell back to the previous consolidation range while S&P and Nasdaq closed lower with an outside day on the weekly chart.

BDI rebounded from 2,552 (18 Nov) to 2,767 (26 Nov)
Harpex closed lower from 3,754 (19 Nov) to 3,745 (26 Nov)
CDFI closed higher from 1,376.69 (19 Nov) to 1407.02 (26 Nov)
CCFI closed lower from 3,245.59 (19 Nov) to 3,199.98 (26 Nov)

The dollar index closed edge higher.

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed-release date due to a Federal holiday.

Watch out for

• Speech by ECB Guindos, FOMC Member Powell, BoE Gov Bailey, and US Treasury Secretary Yellen
• Manufacturing PMI data from multiple countries
• US Nonfarm Payrolls

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 15,652, 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

29 Nov, Mon

• 1630 Europe ECB Guindos Speech
• 2300 US Treasury Secretary Yellen Speech
• 2300 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)

30 Nov, Tue

• 0405 US FOMC Member Powell Speaks 
• 0900 China Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1500 German Unemployment Rate Harmonised (Oct)
• 1655 German Unemployment Change (Nov)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Nov) 
• 2130 Canada GDP (MoM) (Sep)
• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Nov)
• 2300 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies

01 Dec, Wed

• 0830 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1500 German Retail Sales YoY (Oct)
• 1655 German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 2115 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov)
• 2200 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 2230 Canada Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 
• 22450 US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 2300 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 2300 US Treasury Secretary Yellen Speech
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

02 Dec, Thu

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

03 Dec, Fri

• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Nov)
• 1730 UK Composite PMI (Nov)
• 1730 UK Services PMI (Nov)
• 1800 Europe Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• 1800 Europe Retail Sales
• 2130 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
• 2130 US Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 2130 Canada Employment Change (Nov)
• 2300 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index tested 95.0 support one more time before closing higher.
Resistance at 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 20 Nov 2021

BDI closed lower from 2,807 (11 Nov) to 2,552 (18 Nov)

Harpex closed lower from 3,852.69 (12 Nov) to 3,754 (19 Nov)

CDFI closed lower from 1,495.3 (12 Nov) to 1,376.69 (19 Nov)

CCFI closed higher from 3,232.37 (12 Nov) to 3,245.59 (19 Nov)

COT     
Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa
• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gold
• Gasoline
• Lumber
• Feeder Cattle (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Cotton

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 20 Nov 2021

US market closed mixed. 
Dow and Russell broke hlf (higher low formation) on the weekly chart and closed lower while S&P and Nasdaq broke lhf (lower high formation) and closed higher.  Nasdaq closed with a historic high.

CCFI closed higher while Harpex, BDI and CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index continues to close higher.

Watch out for

• Short trading week due to US holiday.
• Speech by ECB Guindos, ECB President Lagarde, and BoE Gov Bailey
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 37,625

Potential support around 35,495, 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,867

Potential support around 4,632, 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 16,374, 15,652, 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,300, 2,170, 2,040, 1,910

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

22 Nov, Mon

• 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Oct)

23 Nov, Tue

• Japan Holiday
• 0130 Europe ECB Guindos Speech 
• 0545 New Zealand Retail Sales
• 1500 German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1630 UK Services PMI (Nov)  
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 
• 1700 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 2245 US Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

24 Nov, Wed

• 0240 Europe ECB Guindos Speech 
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement  
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference 
• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Nov)
• 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Goods Trade Balance (Oct) 
• 2300 US New Home Sales (Oct)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

25 Nov, Thu

• US holiday
• 0300 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 1500 German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2130 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks

26 Nov, Fri

• US holiday (Market close early)
• 0100 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 1600 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Dollar Index broke 95.0 resistance level

The dollar index tested 94.0 support, rebounded and broke the 95.0 resistance level to close higher.
Resistance at 96.3, 97.3, 98.7, 99.8
Support at 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6

COT for Dollar Index

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed-release date due to a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA