Dollar Index directionless

On the weekly chart, Dollar index closed with a +roc (close price > open price) inside day.
88.88 will be the next strong support.

Resistance at 92.0, 93.3, TLD1, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 90.6, 88.88

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 12 Dec 2020

BDI closed rebounded from 1,197 (04 Dec) to 1,211 (11 Dec)

Harpex continues to rise, from 1009.39 (27 Nov) to 1016.25 (04 Dec)

CDFI closed lower from 812.2 (04 Dec) to 800.96 (11 Dec)

CCFI closed higher from 1,323.83 (04 Dec) to 1,411.98 (11 Dec)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline
• Natural Gas (1)
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Soybean
• Sugar
• Copper
• Crude

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 12 Dec 2020

US market broke pwh (previous week high), reversed to close lower with a -roc (close price < open price) except for Russell pull back but closed at a new historic high with a +roc (close price > open price)

BDI and Harpex closed higher.
CDFI (China Import Dry Bulk Freight Index) closed lower while CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) closed higher.

Dollar Index closed directionless.

Watch out for various countries on Interest rate decision.

This will be the last update for the Year 2020.  Next week there is work commitment and will not have time to update.
The update will resume on the second week (10 Jan 2021) of the Year 2021.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• DOW

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 31,236, 33,365

Potential support around  29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 28,195, 27,345, 26,635, 25,784

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,690, 3,925

Potential support around 3,579, 3,454, 3,388, 3,219, 3,155, 3,072, 3,022

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 12,410, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 12,040, 11,318, 10,856, 10,595, 10,206

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040

Potential support around 1,779, 1,743, 1,708, 1,683, 1,649, 1,624, 1,609

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

14 Dec, Mon

• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4)
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q4)

15 Dec, Tue

• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY)
• 1000 China Retail Sales (YoY)
• 1500 UK Claimant Count Change (Nov)
• 1500 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)

16 Dec, Wed

• 0330 Canada BoC's Governor Macklem speech
• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 
• 1700 Europe Markit PMI Composite
• 1730 UK Services PMI  
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

17 Dec, Thu

• 0300 US FOMC Economic Projections
• 0300 US FOMC Statement  
• 0300 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0330 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 0645 New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Nov)
• 1630 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision
• 1630 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment  
• 1700 Switzerland SNB Press Conference  
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 2130 US Building Permits (Nov)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) 

18 Dec, Fri

• 1100 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement  
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1400 Japan BoJ Press Conference  
• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Dec)
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)

China Shipping indices - CDFI and CCFI

China also has shipping indices that kind of similar to BDI and Harpex.

CDFI (China Import Dry Bulk Freight Index) reflects spot market changes in China import dry bulk transportation market

CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index)  targets the overall freight level (including spot and contractual rates) of China’s export container transport market, which is more comprehensive and macroeconomic.

Visit SCFI for more on CDFI and CCFI

Dollar Index broke support and recovered

Dollar index tested 90.6 support and recovered to close above support.  It closed with a small +roc (close price > open price) on the daily chart.
88.88 will be the next strong support.

Resistance at 92.0, 93.3, TLD1, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 90.6, 88.88

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 05 Dec 2020

BDI closed lower from 1,219 (27 Nov) to 1,197 (04 Dec)

Harpex broke 1,000 mark barrier, rise from 978.68 (20 Nov) to 1009.39 (27 Nov)

CDFI (China Import Dry Bulk Freight Index) closed at 812.2 (04 Dec)

CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) closed higher from 1,198.72 (27 Nov) to  1,323.83 (04 Dec)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline
• Natural Gas (1)
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Soybean
• Sugar
• Copper
• Crude

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 05 Dec 2020

US market closed at a historic high again.

BDI closed lower, Harpex broke 1,000 mark barrier.

Dollar Index tested and closed above support.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• DOW

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 31,236, 33,365

Potential support around  29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 28,195, 27,345, 26,635, 25,784

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,690, 3,925

Potential support around 3,579, 3,454, 3,388, 3,219, 3,155, 3,072, 3,022

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 12,410, 12,040, 11,318, 10,856, 10,595, 10,206

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040

Potential support around 1,779, 1,743, 1,708, 1,683, 1,649, 1,624, 1,609

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

07 Dec, Mon

• 0605 Australia RBA's Governor Lowe speech
• 2300 Canada Ivey PMI (Nov)

08 Dec, Tue

• 0750 Japan GDP (Q3)
• 1800 Europe GDP
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec)
• 2000 US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook 

09 Dec, Wed

• 0930 China Consumer Price Index
• 2300 US JOLTs Job Openings (Oct)
• 2300 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

10 Dec, Thu

• 0800 Europe European Council Meeting
• 1500 UK GDP (MoM)
• 2045 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement 
• 2045 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 Europe ECB Press Conference  

11 Dec, Fri

• 0800 Europe European Council Meeting
• 1500 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index