Shipping index

Harpex has broken 10 years high.  

BDI 10 years high at 4,078, historic high at 11,440 around May 2008.   The most recent peaked around Aug 2019 at 2,378.

Why are the indexes heading north?

Reuters reported on 18 Nov 2020 Container freight rates soar on consumer goods boom, supply chain kinks (https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/container-freight-rates-soar-consumer-033840145.html) due to 

• restocking
• limited air-freight
• demand for stay-home good
• serve shortage of containers

Carrier Financial Results 6 Months 2019-20 report (dated Nov 2020) by DHL mentioned lower volumes are offset by higher freight rates (https://www.dhl.com/content/dam/dhl/global/dhl-global-forwarding/documents/pdf/glo-dgf-ocean-market-update.pdf)

Several ocean carriers have formed a few alliances.

Since the last financial crisis (Subprime mortgage crisis, 2007) the shipping industry has gone through a tough time to sustain with the Coronavirus, the shipping industry went thru consolidation and those survive will emerge to be stronger.

A report (dated 25 Jul 2019) by The Motley Fool (https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-invest-in-shipping-stocks.aspx) 

Top pick on companies focusing on the containers

• Costamare (NYSE:CMRE)
• Seaspan (NYSE:ATCO)

Top pick on companies focusing on the Dry bulk carriers

• Diana Shipping (NYSE:DSX)
• Eagle Bulk Shipping (NASDAQ:EGLE)
• Star Bulk Carriers (NASDAQ:SBLK)

It may be time worth to take a look at the shipping industry.

Dollar Index broke support

On the weekly chart, Dollar index broke hlf (higher low formation), 92.0 support and closed lower.

Resistance at 92.0, 93.3, TLD1, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, TLU4, 98.7
Support at 90.6, 88.88

COT for Dollar Index

There will be no update on COT this week due to delay release date due to a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Market 28 Nov 2020

US market closed at a historic high.

BDI closed higher from 1,134 (19 Nov) to 1,219 (27 Nov)

Harpex continues to escalate higher, from 947.07 (13 Nov) to 978.68 (20 Nov)

There will be no update on COT this week due to delay release date due to a Federal holiday.

Watch out for various countries reporting GDP, PMI and US NFP on Fri (04 Dec)

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 31,236, 33,365

Potential support around  29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 28,195, 27,345, 26,635

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,690, 3,925

Potential support around 3,579, 3,454, 3,388, 3,219, 3,155, 3,072

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 12,410, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 12,040, 11,318, 10,856, 10,595, 10,206, 9,873

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040

Potential support around 1,779, 1,708, 1,683, 1,649, 1,624, 1,609

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

30 Nov, Mon

• 0900 China Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 2130 Canada GDP (MoM)
• 2300 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)

01 Dec, Tue

• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement
• 1655 German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1655 German Unemployment Change (Nov)
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Nov)  
• 2130 Canada GDP (MoM) (Sep)
• 2300 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

02 Dec, Wed

• 0830 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 0830 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
• 2115 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

03 Dec, Thu

• 1730 UK Composite PMI (Nov)
• 1730 UK Services PMI (Nov)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2300 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

04 Dec, Fri

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 1730 UK Construction PMI (Nov)
• 2130 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
• 2130 US Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 2130 Canada Employment Change (Nov)

Dollar Index directionless

On the weekly chart, Dollar index closed lower with an inside day

Resistance at 93.3, TLD1, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, TLU4, 98.7
Support at 92.0, 90.6, 88.88

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 21 Nov 2020

BDI rebounded from 1,115 (13 Nov) to 1,134 (19 Nov)

Harpex continues to close above 10 years high (10-year peak at 901), from 910.09 (06 Nov) to 947.07 (13 Nov)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• Gasoline

Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle
• Natural Gas (1)
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Soybean
• Sugar
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 21 Nov 2020

US market closed mixed.  

On the weekly chart, 

• DOW broke pwh (previous week high) and reversed to close lower.
• S&P closed lower with a -roc (close price < open price).  
• Nasdaq closed higher with a small +roc (close price > open price) inside day
• Russell broke pwh (previous week high) and closed higher.

BDI rebounded.  Harpex continues to close above 10 years high.

Dollar Index directionless.

Watch out for the short trading week in the US due the holiday and FOMC Meeting Minutes on 26 Nov 3 AM (SGT).

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• DOW

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 29,407, 31,236, 33,365

Potential support around  29,106, 28,912, 28,195, 27,345, 26,635, 25,784

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,579, 3,690, 3,925

Potential support around 3,454, 3,388, 3,219, 3,155, 3,072, 3,022

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,410, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,856, 10,595, 10,206, 9,873, 9,723

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,910

Potential support around 1,779, 1,743, 1,708, 1,683, 1,649, 1,624, 1,609

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

23 Nov, Mon

• Japan holiday
• 0545 New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ)
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1700 Europe Markit PMI Composite
• 1730 UK Services PMI 

24 Nov, Tue

• 0830 Australia Trade Balance (MoM)
• 1500 German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Nov)
• 2005 Japan BoJ's Governor Kuroda speech
• 2200 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks  
• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Nov)

25 Nov, Wed

• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
• 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2300 US New Home Sales (Oct)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

26 Nov, Thu

• US holiday
• 0300 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 1930 Europe ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
• 2030 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement

27 Nov, Fri

• US holiday, the market closed early
• No important data

Dollar Index recovered

On the weekly chart, Dollar index broke pwl (previous week low) and recovered to close higher
Dollar Index needs to close above TLD1 for at least 2 weeks for a potential turn around to be bullish.
Resistance at 93.3, TLD1, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, TLU4, 98.7
Support at 92.0, 90.6, 88.88

COT for Dollar Index

There will be no update on COT this week due to delay release date due to a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Market 14 Nov 2020

US market traded at historic high and closed mixed.

On the weekly chart, Dow closed at a historic high with a very small +roc. S&P and Russell closed at a historic high with a -roc.  Nasdaq closed lower with a -roc.

BDI continue to lower, from 1,194 (06 Nov) to 1,115(13 Nov)

Harpex close above 10 years high (10-year peak at 901), from 881.17 (30 Oct) to 910.09 (06 Nov)

Dollar Index recovered some of the losses and closed higher.

There will be no update on COT this week due to delay release date due to a Federal holiday.

Watch out for the central bank will be speaking on various occasion.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 31,236, 33,365

Potential support around  29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 28,195, 27,345, 26,635, 25,784

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,690, 3,925

Potential support around 3,579, 3,454, 3,388, 3,219, 3,155, 3,072, 3,022

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,410, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,856, 10,595, 10,206, 9,873, 9,723

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,779, 1,910

Potential support around 1,708, 1,683, 1,649, 1,624, 1,609, 1,585

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

16 Nov, Mon

• 0750 Japan GDP
• 0750 Japan Retail Sales (YoY)
• 1000 China Industrial Production
• 1640 Australia RBA's Governor Lowe speech
• 2100 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks

17 Nov, Tue

• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 2200 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

18 Nov, Wed

• 0000 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 0300 Canada BoC's Governor Macklem speech
• 0600 Australia RBA's Governor Lowe speech
• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 2130 US Building Permits (Oct)
• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 2300 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speak
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

19 Nov, Thu

• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Oct)
• 1600 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks 
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Oct)

20 Nov, Fri

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 1615 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

Dollar Index slumped

On the weekly chart, Dollar index slumped down with an outside day, testing Aug low.  Next strong support around 92.0 and 88.88

Resistance at 93.3, TLD1, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, TLU4, 98.7
Support at 92.0, 90.6, 88.88

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 07 Nov 2020

BDI pull back from 1,283 (30 Oct) to 1,194 (06 Nov)

Harpex close higher, from 820.04 (23 Oct) to 881.17 (30 Oct)
Harpex 10 years high at 910.

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gasoline (1)
• Feeder Cattle (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Natural Gas (1)
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Soybean
• Sugar

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 07 Nov 2020

On the weekly chart, US market broke lhf (lower high formation) and rallied to close higher.

BDI closed lower. Harpex closed higher and may test 10 years high.

Dollar Index closed lower, next strong support around 92.0 level

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• Russell

DT 

• Dow

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 28,912, 29,106, 29,407

Potential support around  28,195, 27,345, 26,635, 25,784, 25,336, 24,837

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,579, 3,690, 3,925

Potential support around 3,454, 3,388, 3,219, 3,155, 3,072, 3,022

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,410, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,856, 10,595, 10,206, 9,873, 9,723

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,649, 1,683, 1,708

Potential support around 1,624, 1,609, 1,585, 1,543, 1,519, 1,498

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

09 Nov, Mon

• 1835 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

10 Nov, Tue

• 0750 Japan Current Account
• 0930 China Consumer Price Index (YoY)
• 1500 UK Claimant Count Change (Oct)
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov)
• 2000 US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
• 2300 US JOLTS Job Openings

11 Nov, Wed

• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement  
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference  

12 Nov, Thu

• 1500 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
• 1500 UK GDP
• 1600 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks  
• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

13 Nov, Fri

• 0000 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 1800 Europe Gross Domestic Product
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Dollar Index testing trend line resistance

On the weekly chart, Dollar index broke lhf (lower high formation) and testing TDL1 resistance

Resistance at TLD1, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, TLU4, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6, 88.88

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 31 Oct 2020

BDI pull back from 1,455 (23 Oct) to 1,283 (30 Oct)

Harpex close higher again, from 783.96 (16 Oct) to 820.04 (23 Oct)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gasoline (1)
• Feeder Cattle (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Natural Gas (1)
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Soybean
• Sugar
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 31 Oct 2020

On the weekly chart, US market broke pwl (previous week low) and closed lower.

BDI closed lower and Harpex closed higher.

Dollar Index closed higher, resisted at the trend line.

Watch out for US Presidential Election, US NFP and various countries on interest rate decision.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 26,635, 27,345, 28,195, 28,730, 29,106, 29,407

Potential support around  25,784, 25,336, 24,837, 24,170, 23,567

S&P
Daily Neutral,, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,303, 3,454, 3,579, 3,690, 3,925

Potential support around 3,219, 3,155, 3,072, 3,022, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 11,318, 12,040, 12,410, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 10,856, 10,595, 10,206, 9,873, 9,723, 9,243

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,585, 1,609, 1,624, 1,649, 1,683, 1,708

Potential support around 1,543, 1,519, 1,498, 1,451, 1,420, 1,388

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

02 Nov, Mon

• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 1655 German Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 2300 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

03 Nov, Tue

• Japan Holiday
• US Presidential Election
• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
• 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement  

04 Nov, Wed

• 0545 New Nealand Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3)
• 0750 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement  
• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 1730 UK Services PMI (Oct)
• 2115 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct)
• 2130 US Trade Balance
• 2300 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

05 Nov, Thu

• 1900 UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes 
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

06 Nov, Fri

• 0300 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0300 US FOMC Press Conference
• 0830 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement
• 2130 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)
• 2130 US Unemployment Rate (Oct) 
• 2130 Canada Employment Change (Oct)
• 2300 Canada Ivey PMI (Oct)