Dollar Index closed lower

On the weekly chart, Dollar index broke hlf (higher low formation) and closed lower after closing 2 consecutive inside day.

Resistance at 93.3, 94.0, TLD1, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, TLU4, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 92.0, 90.6, 88.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 24 Oct 2020

BDI pull back at a slower pace, from 1,477 (16 Oct) to 1,455 (23 Oct)

Harpex close higher for another week, from 754.14 (09 Oct) to 783.96 (16 Oct)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gasoline (1)
• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Natural Gas (1)
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean
• Sugar
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 24 Oct 2020

On the weekly chart, US market broke hlf (higher low formation), recovered some of the losses before closing except for Russell closed with a very small roc inside day. 

BDI closed lower and Harpex closed higher.

Dollar Index closed higher.

Watch out for GDP data and Interest rate decision from various countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around  28,730, 29,106, 29,407

Potential support around 28,195, 27,345, 26,635, 25,784, 25,336, 24,837

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,579, 3,690, 3,925

Potential support around 3,454, 3,388, 3,303, 3,219, 3,155, 3,072, 3,022

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,410, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,856, 10,595, 10,206, 9,873, 9,723, 9,243

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,649, 1,683, 1,708

Potential support around 1,624, 1,609, 1,585, 1,543, 1,519, 1,498, 1,451, 1,420

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

26 Oct, Mon

• New Zealand and Honk Kong holiday
• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Sep)
• 2230 Switzerland SNB's Chairman Jordan speech

27 Oct, Tue

• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)

28 Oct, Wed

• 0830 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance
• 2200 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2200 Canada BoC Rate Statement
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 2315 Canada BOC Press Conference 

29 Oct, Thu

• 1100 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
• 1100 Japan BoJ Outlook Report (YoY) 
• 1400 Japan BoJ Press Conference  
• 1655 German Unemployment Change (Oct)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)   
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 Canada Building Permits (MoM)
• 2045 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Oct)
• 2045 Europe ECB Marginal Lending Facility
• 2045 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement 
• 2045 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
• 2130 Europe ECB Press Conference  
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)

30 Oct, Fri

• 0830 Australia Producer Price Index
• 1500 German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Oct)  
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Aug)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

31 Oct, Sat

• 0900 China Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 0900 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Dollar Index closed higher

On the weekly chart, Dollar index closed higher with an inside day.

Resistance at 94.0, TLD1, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, TLU4, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 93.3, 92.0, 90.6, 88.88

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 17 Oct 2020

BDI pull back again, from 1,892 (09 Oct) to 1,477 (16 Oct)

Harpex continues to close higher, from 714.77 (02 Oct) to 754.14 (09 Oct)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• Gasoline

Up Trend

• Natural Gas (1)
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean
• Sugar
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 17 Oct 2020

On the weekly chart, US market closed higher with a -roc (close price < open price)

BDI closed lower and Harpex closed higher.

Dollar Index closed higher.

Watch out for 

• A few central banks will be giving a speech.
• China GDP and Loan Prime Rate.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around  28,730, 29,106, 29,407

Potential support around 28,195, 27,345, 26,635, 25,784, 25,336, 24,837

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,579, 3,690, 3,925

Potential support around 3,454, 3,388, 3,303, 3,219, 3,155, 3,072, 3,022

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,410, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,856, 10,595, 10,206, 9,873, 9,723, 9,243

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,649, 1,683, 1,708

Potential support around 1,624, 1,609, 1,585, 1,543, 1,519, 1,498, 1,451, 1,420

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

19 Oct, Mon

• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep)
• 1000 China Retail Sales (YoY)  
• 2000 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
• 2045 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks 

20 Oct, Tue

• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 2030 US Building Permits (Sep)

21 Oct, Wed

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)
• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 1530 Europe ECB's President Lagarde speech
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

22 Oct, Thu

• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM)
• 1725 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks  
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Sep)

23 Oct, Fri

• 0545 New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q3)
• 0900 US Presidential Debate
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 
• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct)
• 1600 Europe Markit PMI Composite
• 1630 UK Services PMI (Oct) 

Dollar Index closed lower

On the weekly chart, Dollar index broke hlf (higher low formation) and closed lower.

Resistance at 93.3, 94.0, TLD1, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, TLU4, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 92.0, 90.6, 88.88

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 10 Oct 2020

BDI pull back from 2,020 (02 Oct) to 1,892 (09 Oct)

Harpex closed higher from 703.74 (25 Sep) to 714.77 (02 Oct)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• Gasoline
• Feeder Cattle

Up Trend

• Natural Gas (1)
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean
• Sugar

Neutral

• Rough Rice

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 10 Oct 2020

US market closed higher.

BDI closed lower and Harpex closed higher.

Dollar Index closed higher.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Nasdaq
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around  28,730, 29,106, 29,407

Potential support around 28,195, 27,345, 26,635, 25,784, 25,336, 24,837

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,579, 3,690, 3,925

Potential support around 3,454, 3,388, 3,303, 3,219, 3,155, 3,072, 3,022

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,410, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,856, 10,595, 10,206, 9,873, 9,723, 9,243

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,649, 1,683, 1,708

Potential support around 1,624, 1,609, 1,585, 1,543, 1,519, 1,498, 1,451, 1,420

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

12 Oct, Mon

• Canada Holiday
• 1900 Europe ECB's President Lagarde speech

13 Oct, Tue

• 0000 UK BoE's Governor Bailey speech
• 1400 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Aug)
• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (Sep)
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)

14 Oct, Wed

• 1600 Europe ECB's President Lagarde speech
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Sep)

15 Oct, Thu

• 0545 Australia RBA's Governor Lowe speech
• 0800 European Council Meeting
• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Sep)
• 0930 China Consumer Price Index (YoY)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories

16 Oct, Fri

• 0645 New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q3)
• 0800 European Council Meeting
• 0900 US Presidential Debate
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Dollar Index pull back

On the weekly chart, Dollar index tested TLD1 resistance, pull back and closed lower with an inside day.

Resistance at 94.0, TLD1, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, TLU4, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 93.3, 92.0, 90.6, 88.88

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 03 Oct 2020

BDI rallied from 1,667 (25 Sep) to 2,020 (02 Oct)

Harpex closed higher from 691.81 (18 Sep) to 703.74 (25 Sep)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gasoline

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Natural Gas (1)
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 03 Oct 2020

On the weekly chart, the US market broke lhf (lower high formation) and closed higher.  Nasdaq closed with a small -roc (close price < open price).

BDI and Harpex closed higher.

Dollar Index pulls back.

Watch out for 

• China market will be closed till Wed
• Fed's Chair Powell speech on 06 Oct
• FOMC meeting minutes and statement on 08 Oct 0200 HRs

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 28,195, 28,730, 29,106, 29,407

Potential support around 27,345, 26,635, 25,784, 25,336, 24,837

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,388, 3,391, 3,454, 3,579, 3,690, 3,925

Potential support around 3,303, 3,219, 3,155, 3,072, 3,022, 2,983, 2,940

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 11,318, 12,040, 12,410, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 10,856, 10,595, 10,206, 9,873, 9,723, 9,243, 8,781

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,543, 1,585, 1,609, 1,624, 1,649

Potential support around 1,519, 1,498, 1,451, 1,420, 1,388, 1,341, 1,296

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

05 Oct, Mon

• China Holiday
• 1630 UK Composite PMI (Sep)
• 1630 UK Services PMI (Sep)
• 1700 Europe Retail Sales (YoY)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

06 Oct, Tue

• China Holiday
• 0830 Australia Trade Balance
• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
• 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement
• 1630 Australia Budget Release
• 1630 UK Construction PMI (Sep)
• 2000 US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
• 2030 US Trade Balance
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Aug)
• 2240 US Fed's Chair Powell speech

07 Oct, Wed

• China Holiday
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Sep)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories 

08 Oct, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 0200 US FOMC Statement 
• 0750 Japan Current Account n.s.a.
• 1730 Switzerland SNB's Chairman Jordan speech
• 1930 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 Canada BoC's Governor Macklem speech

09 Oct, Fri

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ)
• 1400 UK GDP (MoM)
• 1400 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug)
• 1400 UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Sep)