Dollar Index broke hlf and recovered

On the weekly chart, the Dollar index broke hlf, losses were trimmed before closing lower with a small -roc.

Resistance at TLU4, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3, TLU1, 102.3, 106.7, 109.7

Support at 97.3, 96.3, TLD1,95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 27 Jun 2020

BDI continues to climb higher to 1,749 (27 Jun) from 1,555 (19 Jun)

Harpex rebounded to 418.96 (19 Jun) from  412.11 (12 Jun)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat
• Corn (1)
• Soybean Meal
• Palladium (1)
• Natural Gas (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Oats (1)
• Soybean Oil
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 27 Jun 2020

On the weekly chart, the US market closed lower with a -roc inside day except for Nasdaq broke lhf but unable to sustain, reversed and closed lower with a -roc.

Two more trading days and the month of Jun will be closed.  At this juncture, on the monthly chart, Dow, S&P and Russell rallied, pull back and closed with a small -roc.  Overall it looks weak and may pull back further in the short term.

Dollar Index closed lower.

BDI continues to go higher and Harpex rebounded to close higher.

Wed, 01 Jul various countries will be reporting Manufacturing PMI.  

Thu, 02 Jul, US FOMC Meeting Minutes, US NFP and US Unemployment Rate.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow
• S&P (1)
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 25,326, 25,784, 26,245, 26,627, 26,976, 27,350, 28,195

Potential support around 24,837, 24,170, 23,567, 23,435, 23,175, 22,776

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,022, 3,072, 3,155, 3,219, 3,303, 3,391, 3,454

Potential support around 2,983, 2,940, 2,874, 2,854, 2,825, 2,814,  2,786

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 9,873, 10,206, 10,595, 11,318

Potential support around 9,723, 9,243, 8,781, 8,428, 8,196, 8,002, 7,859, 7,706

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,388, 1,420, 1,451, 1,508, 1,519, 1,543, 1,585, 1,609

Potential support around 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,259, 1,240, 1,213, 1,185, 1,164

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

29 Jun, Mon

• 2000 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May)

30 Jun, Tue

• 0900 China Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1400 UK GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Apr)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)
• 2200 US Treasury Sec Mnuchin speech
• 2200 US Fed's Chair Powell testifies

01 Jul, Wed

• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2)
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q2)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1555 German Unemployment Change (Jun)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories 

02 Jul, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes 
• 0930 Australia Trade Balance
• 1700 Europe Unemployment Rate
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Jun)
• 2030 US Trade Balance

03 Jul, Fri

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 1630 UK Composite PMI (Jun)
• 1630 UK Services PMI (Jun)

Dollar Index broke lhf

On the weekly chart, the Dollar index broke lhf and closed higher.

Resistance at TLU4, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3, TLU1, 102.3, 106.7, 109.7

Support at 97.3, 96.3, TLD1,95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Will history repeat?

History may repeat but the magnitude will be different.

Commodities Update 20 Jun 2020

BDI did another strong rebound to 1,555 (19 Jun) from 923 (12 Jun)

Harpex continues to slide, from 434.17 (05 Jun) to 412.11 (12 Jun)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn (1)
• Soybean Meal
• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• Natural Gas (1)

Up Trend

• Oats (1)
• Soybean Oil
• Feeder Cattle
• Lumber

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 20 Jun 2020

On the weekly chart, the US market broke pwl and recovered to close higher.  

Nearly half of the gain was trimmed off before closing for Dow, S&P and Russell.

Dollar Index closed higher.

BDI continues to rebound strongly while Harpex continues to be weak.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow (1)
• S&P (1)
• Russell (1)

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 25,784, 26,245, 26,627, 26,976, 27,350, 28,195

Potential support around 25,326, 24,837, 24,170, 23,567, 23,435, 23,175, 22,776

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral

Potential resistance around 3,072, 3,155, 3,219, 3,303, 3,391, 3,454

Potential support around 3,022, 2,983, 2,940, 2,874, 2,854, 2,825, 2,814,  2,786

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 10,595, 11,318

Potential support around 9,873, 9,723, 9,243, 8,781, 8,428, 8,196, 8,002, 7,859, 7,706

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,388, 1,420, 1,451, 1,508, 1,519, 1,543, 1,585, 1,609

Potential support around 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,259, 1,240, 1,213, 1,185, 1,164

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

22 Jun, Mon

• 0700 Australia RBA's Governor Lowe speech
• 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (May)
• 2300 Canada BoC's Governor Macklem speech

23 Jun, Tue

• 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)  
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI 
• 2200 US New Home Sales (May)

24 Jun, Wed

• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement
• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jun)
• 2130 UK Inflation Report Hearings
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories 

25 Jun, Thu

• Hong Kong and China holiday
• 1930 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

26 Jun, Fri

• 0730 Japan Tokyo CPI (YoY)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Dollar Index recovered

Dollar Index tested TLD1 and 96.3 support and recovered to close higher with a +roc

Resistance at TLU4, 97.3, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3, TLU1, 102.3, 106.7, 109.7

Support at  96.3, TLD1,95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Trading Idea

Out of the 5 pairs, nzdusd have the most beautiful chart.  I did miss the short, I will be looking for an opportunity to short.

Commodities Update 13 Jun 2020

BDI rebounded strongly to 923 (12 Jun) from 679 (05 Jun)

Harpex continues to slide, from 452.36 (29 May) to 434.17 (05 Jun)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn (1)
• Soybean Meal

Neutral

• Palladium (1)

Up Trend

• Natural Gas
• Oats (1)
• Soybean Oil
• Feeder Cattle
• Lumber

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Rough Rice

I did not manage to short as it was gapping down with circuit break triggered to halt the trading.

US Market 13 Jun 2020

On the weekly chart, US market closed lower with a -roc outside day.

Dollar Index tested support and rebounded.

BDI rebound strongly but Harpex continues to be weak.

Japan, Switzerland  and UK will have to make a decision on this week

US Fed's Chair Powell will be speaking on a few occasions.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow
• S&P (1)
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 25,645, 25,784, 26,245, 26,627, 26,976, 27,350, 28,195

Potential support around 25,326, 24,837, 24,170, 23,567, 23,435, 23,175, 22,776

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral

Potential resistance around 3,072, 3,155, 3,219, 3,303, 3,391, 3,454

Potential support around 3,022, 2,983, 2,940, 2,874, 2,854, 2,825, 2,814,  2,786

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 9,723, 9,873, 10,595

Potential support around 9,243, 8,781, 8,428, 8,196, 8,002, 7,859, 7,706

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,388, 1,420, 1,451, 1,508, 1,519, 1,543, 1,585, 1,609

Potential support around 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,259, 1,240, 1,213, 1,185, 1,164

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

15 Jun, Mon

• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (May)

16 Jun, Tue

• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1400 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Apr)
• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (May)
• 1400 Japan BoJ Press Conference
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 2200 US Fed's Chair Powell testifies

17 Jun, Wed

• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (May)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (May)
• 2030 US Building Permits (May)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (May)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories 

18 Jun, Thu

• 0000 US Fed's Chair Powell testifies
• 0645 New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 0930 Australia Employment Change (May)
• 1530 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision
• 1530 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment  
• 1600 Switzerland SNB Press Conference 
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
• 1900 UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)

19 Jun, Fri

• 0750 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

20 Jun, Sat

• 0100 US Fed's Chair Powell speech

Dollar Index broke down

Dollar Index broke down from consolidation and closed lower

Resistance at TLU4, 97.3, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3, TLU1, 102.3

Support at  96.3, TLD1,95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 06 Jun 2020

BDI increased to 679 (05 Jun) from 504 (29 May)

Harpex slide from 479.20 (22 May) to 452.36 (29 May)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn (1)
• Soybean Meal

Neutral

• Natural Gas
• Feeder Cattle
• Palladium (1)

Up Trend

• Oats (1)
• Lumber
• Gold
• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Rough Rice

I may enter a short after a break down from consolidation and price-action call for it.

Reasons

• Double-Top
• Price moving up in Parabolic manner
• COT dealer interest selling at extreme

US Market 06 Jun 2020

US market closed higher. Nasdaq closed at historic high.

Dollar Index broke down from consolidation.

BDI closed higher and Harpex continue to go lower.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow (1)
• S&P (1)
• Russell (1)

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 26,976, 27,350, 28,195, 28,730, 29,106, 29,407

Potential support around 26,627, 26,245, 25,784, 25,645, 25,326, 24,837, 24,170

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral

Potential resistance around 3,219, 3,303, 3,391, 3,454

Potential support around 3,155, 3,072, 3,022, 2,983, 2,940, 2,874, 2,854, 2,825

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 9,873, 10,595

Potential support around 9,723, 9,243, 8,781, 8,428, 8,196, 8,002, 7,859, 7,706

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,519, 1,543, 1,585, 1,609, 1,624, 1,649, 1,683, 1,708

Potential support around 1,508, 1,451, 1,420, 1,388, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,259

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

08 Jun, Mon

• Australia holiday
• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 1400 German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)

09 Jun, Tue

• 1700 Europe Gross Domestic Product s.a.
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Apr)

10 Jun, Wed

• 0930 China Consumer Price Index (YoY)
• 1700 OPEC Meeting
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (May)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories 

11 Jun, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Statement  
• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (May) 

12 Jun, Fri

• 1400 UK GDP
• 1400 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Apr)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index