Dollar Index tested resistance and pull back

Dollar Index tested 99.8 resistance and pull back to close slightly higher
Resistance at 99.8, TLU2, 100.3
Support at TLU1, 98.7, 97.3, TLU4, TLD1, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 22 Feb 2020

BDI closed slightly higher from 425 (14 Feb) to 497 (21 Feb)
Harpex closed lower from 702.00 (07 Feb) to 691.52 (14 Feb)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Crude
• Natural Gas
• Heating Oil (1)
• Feeder Cattle (1)
• Copper

Neutral

• Orange Juice

Up Trend

• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Cocoa
• Sugar
• Rough Rice
• Platinum

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 22 Feb 2020

On the weekly chart, US market (except Dow) broke pwh, failed to hold and closed lower with a -roc.  On the weekly chart, Dow broke hlf and closed lower with a -roc.

BDI continues to close higher while Harpex closed lower.  

Dollar Index tested resistance and pull back.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 29,106, 29,407, 31,236, 33,365

Potential support around 28,730, 28,195, 27,350, 26,976, 26,627, 26,245

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,391, 3,690, 3,925

Potential support around 3,3303, ,326, 3,256, 3,219, 3,155, 3,072, 3,022, 2,983, 2,940

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 9,653, 9,873, 10,595

Potential support around 9,243, 9,166, 8,954, 8,781, 8,428, 8,196, 8,002

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,683, 1,708, 1,743, 1,779, 1910

Potential support around 1,649, 1,624, 1,609, 1,585, 1,543, 1,519, 1,508

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

24 Feb, Mon

• Japan Holiday
• 0545 New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ)
• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Feb)

25 Feb, Tue

• 1300 UK Inflation Report Hearings
• 1500 German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Feb) 

26 Feb, Wed

• 2130 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks  
• 2300 US New Home Sales (Jan)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories 

27 Feb, Thu

• 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan)
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)  
• 2300 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jan)

28 Feb, Fri

• 0730 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)
• 1655 German Unemployment Change (Feb)
• 2100 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
• 2130 Canada GDP (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US Goods Trade Balance
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

29 Feb, Sat

• 0900 China NBS Manufacturing PMI
• 0900 China Non-Manufacturing PMI

Dollar Index closed higher

After Dollar Index rallied last week, it continues to close higher
Resistance at TLU1, 99.8, TLU2, 100.3
Support at 98.7, 97.3, TLU4, TLD1, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 15 Feb 2020

BDI closed slightly higher from 415 (07 Feb) to 425 (14 Feb)
Harpex closed lower from 705.53 (31 Jan) to 702.00 (07 Feb)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Natural Gas
• Heating Oil (1)
• Feeder Cattle (1)
• Copper

Neutral

• Orange Juice

Up Trend

• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Cocoa
• Sugar
• Rough Rice
• Platinum

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 15 Feb 2020

US market closed higher.  Dow, S&P and Nasdaq closed at historic highs.

BDI closed higher and Harpex closed lower.  

Dollar Index closed higher.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 29,407, 31,236, 33,365

Potential support around 29,106, 28,730, 28,195, 27,350, 26,976, 26,627, 26,245

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,690, 3,925

Potential support around 3,326, 3,256, 3,219, 3,155, 3,072, 3,022, 2,983, 2,940

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 9,873, 10,595

Potential support around 9,243, 9,166, 8,954, 8,781, 8,428, 8,196, 8,002

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,708, 1,743, 1,779, 1910

Potential support around 1,683, 1,649, 1,624, 1,609, 1,585, 1,543, 1,519, 1,508

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

17 Feb, Mon

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

18 Feb, Tue

• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes  
• 1730 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Dec)
• 1730 UK Claimant Count Change (Jan)
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb)

19 Feb, Wed

• 1730 UK CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 2130 US Building Permits (Jan) 
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Jan)
• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)

20 Feb, Thu

• 0300 US FOMC Meeting Minutes  
• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Jan) 
• 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate 
• 1730 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 2030 Europe ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting  
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb)

21 Feb, Fri

• 0000 US Crude Oil Inventories 
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 
• 1700 Europe Markit PMI Composite 
• 1730 UK Composite PMI  
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI 
• 1730 UK Services PMI   
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Jan)