COT update 20 Nov 2018

Here are the COT charts 

Download Commodities COT

Dollar Index tested support

Dollar Index broke hlf, tested trend channel support and rebounded to close higher

Resistance at 97.3, Trend Channel resistance, 98.7
Support at TLU1, 96.3, Trend Channel Support, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6

COT for Dollar Index

COT data are delayed for few days due to a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 24 Nov 18

US markets continue to slump down.  Nasdaq broke Oct low, tested trend support, recovered some losses and closed above it.

BDI and Harpex rebounded.

• BDI raised to 1096 (23 Nov) from 1031 (16 Nov)
• Harpex also closed higher to 501.57 (16 Nov) from 499.48 (09 Nov)

Dollar Index tested trend channel support and rebounded.

COT data are delayed for few days due to a Federal holiday.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 24,841, 25,326, 25,645, 25,784, 26,627, TLU11, 26,976, 29,106

Potential support around 24,170, 23,567, 23,435, TLU6, 23,175, 22,776, 22,121

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2,710, 2,747, 2,786, 2,814, 2,825, 2,874, 2,940, 2,983, 3,219

Potential support around 2,593 2,551, 2,506, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406, 2,392, 2,366

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,725, 6,982, 7,134, 7,282, TLU6, 7,516, 7,706, TLU7, 8,428

Potential support around 6,518, TLU3, TLU4, 6,346, TLU4, 6,261, 6,061, 5,950

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,508, 1,519, 1,543, 1,585, 1,609, 1,624, 1,683, 1,708, 1,743

Potential support around 1,451, 1,420, 1,388 TLU3, 1,341, 1,296

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

26 Nov, Mon

• 0615 Australia RBA's Governor Philip Lowe Speech
• 0800 EU Brexit Summit
• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index 
• 2200 Europe ECB President Draghi Speaks   

27 Nov, Tue

• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Nov)   

28 Nov, Wed

• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2300 US New Home Sales (Oct)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

29 Nov, Thu

• 0100 US FOMC Member Powell Speaks
• 1655 German Unemployment Change (Nov)
• 2300 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)

30 Nov, Fri

• 0300 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 0900 China Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Nov) 
• 2130 Canada GDP (MoM) (Sep)

Dollar Index pull back

Dollar Index tested trend channel resistance and pull back to close lower for the week

Dollar Index broke and closed above the 96.3 resistance.
Resistance at TLU1, 97.3, Trend Channel resistance, 98.7
Support at 96.3, Trend Channel Support, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 17 Nov 18

BDI lower to 1031 (16 Nov) from 1147 (9 Nov)
Harpex lowering to 499.48 (09 Nov) from 503.06 (2 Nov)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybean Oil
• Crude (1)
• Orange Juice (1) 
• Feeder Cattle
• Lumber

Neutral

• Silver

Up Trend

• Soybeans
• Gold (1)
• Natural Gas (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 17 Nov 18

On the weekly chart, US markets broke hlf and recovered to close above pwl (except Russell)

BDI and Harpex continue to slide down.

Dollar Index tested the resistance and pull back.


Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Nasdaq (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 25,645, 25,784, 26,627, TLU11, 26,976, 29,106

Potential support around 25,326, 24,841, 24,170, 23,567, 23,435, TLU6, 23,175

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2,747, 2,786, 2,814, 2,825, 2,874, 2,940, 2,983, 3,219

Potential support around 2,710, 2,593 2,551, 2,506, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406, 2,392, 2,366

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,982, 7,134, 7,282, TLU6, 7,516, 7,706, TLU7, 8,428

Potential support around 6,725, 6,518, TLU3, 6,346, TLU4, 6,261

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,543, 1,585, 1,609, 1,624, 1,683, 1,708, 1,743

Potential support around 1,519, 1,508, 1,494, 1,451, 1,420, 1,388 TLU3, 1,341, 1,296

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

19 Nov, Mon

• No important data

20 Nov, Tue

• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 2130 US Building Permits (Oct)

21 Nov, Wed

• 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct)
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Oct)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

22 Nov, Thu

• US holiday
• UK Inflation Report Hearings
• 2030 Europe ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

23 Nov, Fri

• Japan holiday
• US markets closed early
• 1500 German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 

Dollar Index closed above the resistance

Dollar Index broke and closed above the 96.3 resistance.
Resistance at 97.3, Trend Channel resistance, 98.7
Support at TLU1, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 10 Nov 18

BDI continues to lower as holiday season approaching, from 1470 (2 Nov) to 1147 (9 Nov)
Harpex also continues to lower to 503.06 (2 Nov) from 509.62 (26 Oct)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybean Oil
• Crude (1)
• Orange Juice (1) 
• Lumber

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Soybeans
• Gold
• Natural Gas (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 10 Nov 18

On the weekly chart, US markets broke lhf (except for DOW, broke pwh) but gained was trimmed before closing.

BDI and Harpex continue to slide down.

Dollar Index tested and closed above the resistance.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Nasdaq

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 26,627, TLU11, 26,976, 29,106

Potential support around 25,784, 25,649, 25,336, 24,841, 24,170, 23,567, 23,435, TLU6, 23,175

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2,786, 2,814, 2,825, 2,874, 2,940, 2,983, 3,219

Potential support around 2,710, 2,593 2,551, 2,506, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406, 2,392, 2,366

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,134, 7,282, TLU6, 7,516, 7,706, TLU7, 8,428

Potential support around 6,982, 6,857, TLU3, 6,346, TLU4, 6,261

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,585, 1,609, 1,624, 1,683, 1,708, 1,743

Potential support around 1,543, 1,519, 1,508, 1,494, 1,451, 1,420, 1,388 TLU3, 1,341, 1,296

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

12 Nov, Mon

• No important data

13 Nov, Tue

• 1730 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep) 
• 1730 UK Claimant Count Change (Oct)
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) 

14 Nov, Wed

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)   
• 1500 German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  
• 1730 UK CPI (YoY) (Oct)  
• 1800 Europe GDP (QoQ) 
• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

15 Nov, Thu

• 0705 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Oct)
• 1730 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)
• 2130 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 

16 Nov, Fri

• 1800 Europe Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)

Dollar Index tested resistance again

Dollar Index broke 96.3 resistance, failed to hold and closed below again
On the weekly chart, it closed with a small +roc.
Resistance at TLU1, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 03 Nov 18

BDI closed lower at 1470 (2 Nov) from 1519 (26 Oct)
Harpex closed lower at 509.62 (26 Oct) from 516.18 (19 Oct)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Orange Juice (1) 
• Lumber

Neutral

• Soybeans
• Crude (1)

Up Trend

• Cocoa
• Gold
• Natural Gas (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average